Championship weekend not only secured the final four spots in the CFP, it also secured the Top 4 teams in F/+ Ratings for the season. Sadly, one of those four teams wasn’t invited to the dance; let the debate rage on. There was no change in the top 4 this week as ‘Bama, Clemson, OU and tOSU held their spots in F/+ and maintained their distance from the field. Although there were many small changes in the F/+ rankings, most teams held their relative position unless they were directly affected by the CCGs and Big XII games played.
Observations from Week 14’s data
1) ‘Bama further distanced itself and is clearly #1 in F/+ at 64.5%, more than five points higher than Clemson at #2 and 59%. Oklahoma slipped slightly but is a solid #3 at 55.7%, and the Buckeyes dropped to 52.1% and are #4. ND also held fast at #5. Sparty was the big winner in the top 10, climbing from #8 to #6. MSU is followed by Ole Miss, Stanford, FSU and TTUN. I find it telling that the CFP Top 4 matchups are exactly what the F/+ ratings would have given, even though the rankings would have been different.
2) Baylor was the biggest loser this week. After the loss to Texas, the Bears dropped five places in F/+. The Bears now sit at 35.0% and #12 after losing 7.5% from the previous week.
3) Bowling Green and Western Kentucky made the largest positive moves after winning their respective CCGs. At 11-2 and 34.2%, the Hilltoppers are the second highest Group of Five team in F/+ sitting at #14. WKU is only one place behind Navy (9-2), which still has Army left on the schedule. BGSU (10-3) rolled NIU to claim the MAC Championship, and climbed five spots in F/+ to #18. Although neither BGSU nor WKU are ranked in the CFP Top 25, both teams are facing 8-4 Group of Five teams in bowl games, and have a chance to potentially crash the end of season rankings, maybe, sort of.
4) Several teams ranked in both the AP Top 25 and CFP Top 25 polls have F/+ ratings ten or more places below their poll rankings. UNC, Oregon, and Temple are all 11 places lower in F/+ than their CFP ranking. Ok State is 13 spots lower, and Houston is 14 spots lower. Even more impressive are Iowa at 20 spots below its CFP ranking and Northwestern sitting 29 places lower in F/+ than in the CFP Poll. Personally, I believe this is partly due to winning close games against weak opponents, rather than the teams truly being bad. Houston, Iowa and UNC had some of the weaker schedules, so their F/+ ratings may be artificially low.
5) CFP Top 25. My picks went 4-1 (Houston, ‘Bama, USC, MSU, Clemson); probably my best week so far but they were mostly non-upsets, so nothing to crow about. 26-13 for the season is better than I anticipated. Bowl games are the hardest to pick in my opinion. A lot changes in a month – coaches come and go, players start thinking about life after college, games are on neutral sites; it’s just an all-around different game than the regular season. In a sense, bowls are a one-game season for many teams. That being said, I’ll give this a shot.
#1 Clemson vs. #4 OU. These teams have been on opposite trajectories since Week 6, the weekend OU lost to Texas and Clemson beat ND. Since that time, the Sooners’ F/+ percentile has steadily climbed from 38% to 56%. Over the same period, the Tigers (playing a softer second half schedule) climbed from 63% in Week 6 to 70% in Week 8, but have progressively slid every week since until settling at 59%. Both teams have an edge offensively over the opponent’s defense in terms of S&P+ (OU is #3 in offense and #12 in defense. Clemson is #10 and #6 respectively. Second Order Wins is where OU has a clear advantage; essentially, Clemson is due for a loss. I’m taking OU.
#2 ‘Bama vs. #3 MSU. As much as I want ‘Bama to lose this game, I just don’t see it happening. MSU has a one place advantage in S&P+ offense (#26 to ‘Bama’s #27), but I don’t see it as enough to overcome ‘Bama’s #1 defense. This will be a close, low-scoring game, but ‘Bama’s defense will be too much for Sparty.
#5 Iowa vs. #6 Stanford. F/+, FEI and S&P+ all give this to Stanford by a large margin. Add to that it’s a west coast venue, and I just can’t see Iowa winning this game. Iowa plays Stanford football, but not as well as Stanford plays Stanford football.
#7 tOSU vs. #8 ND. Other than Clemson-OU, this is probably the closest matchup in terms of F/+ ratings. The Buckeyes have the advantage in F/+, trail ND by one spot in FEI, but are four places ahead in S&P+. Ohio State can’t seem to shake the distraction bug, so I’m concerned about focus. Both teams need this as a statement win for 2015, so I expect a hard-fought game. I think the Buckeyes win by a TD or less.
#9 FSU vs. #18 Houston. This will be Houston’s first game of the season versus a Power Five team that won more than six games since they faced 7-5 Louisville in September. They did finish the season with big wins over ranked Navy and Temple to end the season. FSU (10-2), is a blocked FG-6 away from finishing 11-1 and only a loss to undefeated Clemson. They also just destroyed UF to the end the season. Analytics have FSU as a clear favorite over Houston, and I don’t see the Cougars stopping a healthy Dalvin Cook.
#10 UNC vs. #17 Baylor. The stats say Baylor wins this, but the stats are based on having a first string QB for two thirds of the season. From their high of #3 in week 7, the Bears have slowly slipped to #9 in F/+. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have consistently but slowly climbed in F/+ since week 6. UNC is tough to gauge because of the two FCS games. By the way they played Clemson, and how Texas beat Baylor at the end of the season, I’m going against F/+ and taking UNC.
#11 TCU vs. #15 Oregon. TCU has hovered between #13 and #24 since Week 5. Oregon, since getting Vernon Adams back, has been improving weekly. In week 7, the Ducks were #56 in F/+; they are now #26. Boykin and Doctson expect to be back for the Horned Frogs in time for this game, but how ready will they be playing their first game coming off injuries? This is another game that I am picking based on trends and not absolute values in F/+. I like the Ducks.
#12 Ole Miss vs. #16 Ok State. When you compare F/+ to the AP and CFP rankings, Ole Miss is one of the most undervalued (F/+ rating above ranking) teams in FBS. Ok State is one of the most overvalued (F/+ well below ranking). This looks like a good matchup between closely ranked teams, but analytics have Ole Miss as a clear favorite in this game. Additionally the game is in New Orleans, it might as well be a home game for Ole Miss. The Rebels win this with defense.
#13 Northwestern vs. #23 Tenn. Of all the teams in the AP and CFP Top 25, Northwestern has the worst F/+ rating: 15.4% at #42. Tennessee is one of the three best teams with four or more losses (USC and Ark are the others), and sits at #19 with an F/+ of 30.3%. The Vols hovered in the teens and 20’s for F/+ ranking all season. Northwestern, after a brief time at 17, dropped to the 40’s after back-to-back blowouts and stayed there. I’m taking Tennessee.
#14 TTUN vs. #19 UF. I don’t care about either team. Analytics say TTUN. Might be a close game if UF blocks several punts for TDs. TTUN by at least two TDs. Who cares?
Bonus Pick: #21 Navy vs. Pitt. Pitt fans are salty about playing in a Tier 2 bowl, but this is one of the best matchups they could ask for as an 8-4 team. Navy should be a favorite for many reasons: better F/+, better record, better players, better school, better grads, better fight song, and the game is in Navy-Marine Corps Stadium. I expect Narduzzi to come out swinging, and it to be a close game. Navy by 10 points.
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