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Week Two F+ Ratings Vs. AP Poll

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
September 14, 2015 at 4:39pm
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Based on the positive response from last week, I thought I’d give this another go.  Clearly all the ‘hot air’ that blew up from the South last week has dissipated, and temperatures returned to normal over last weekend. As expected, some of the teams we evaluated as ‘overvalued’ by the AP Poll came out and under-performed on Saturday. Likewise, a couple ‘undervalued’ teams played well and moved up in the voters’ minds. Another phenomenon reared its head in the AP Poll this week: sentimental or ‘People’s Choice’  awards. These are teams received AP votes or rankings because voters want to believe they should be ranked despite F+ Ratings data that indicates otherwise.

Observations from Week Two’s data (Table below)

1) Cream of the Crop.  ‘Bama and tOSU swapped spots at the top of the F+ Ratings after both won convincingly while not performing their best .  ‘Bama holds the edge in FEI while tOSU leads in S&P+.  They are both more than 12 percentage points ahead of the next closer competitor.  ‘Bama has a big game next week versus an ‘undervalued’ Ole Miss in T-Town, while the Buckeyes host the middling NIU Huskies.

2) Top 10 Match-up of the Week.  Oregon got irrationally pummeled in the polls for losing a close road game in East Lansing, but remains the #3 team in the nation in F+ Rating.  MSU, on the other hand, rose one spot in the AP, but fell two spots to #8 in F+ Ratings mostly due to the S&P+ formula where efficiency and finishing drives factor big.  I expect the Ducks to return to the AP Top 10 if they defeat ranked Utah in two weeks.

3) Losses Matter More than SoS.  Thank you Captain Obvious.  Apparently this fact was lost on Bert Bielema, Dan Mullins, and Steve Spurrier.  I would throw Tennessee into that group as well, but the hot air from the SEC last week was coming from the other three.  Arkansas was ‘overvalued’ last week and the Hogs put an exclamation point on it by losing to the Toledo Rockets and falling 20 places in the AP Poll, well below their F+ of #23.  Miss St and Tenn also dropped out of the AP Top 25 this week, and are more closely aligned to their F+ ratings. SCar (unranked in the AP), surprisingly is still #28 in F+, despite losing at home to Kentucky (#74 for F+). 

4) Corollary to #3: Close Wins Against Bad Teams Hurt.  Auburn returned to earth after trying to lose to Jax St, falling 12 points in the AP to match their F+.  Apparently the voters got something right; even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.  ASU beat Cal Poly this week (35-21) and dropped 5 spots in F+, and the win did nothing to improve their AP standing as they continue to lose votes. Mizzou also won a close one and dropped two places in F+; the voters rewarded the Tigers bumping them two places in the AP because…SEC.  It’s a push as their F+ and AP rank now match.

5) Undervalued.  UCLA, Ole Miss, Stanford, ASU, BSU, VaTech, Ark.  These teams are all four or more places lower in the AP than their F+ Ratings suggest.  Stanford has the largest difference with an F+ rating 25 places above its AP ranking. Hmmm.

6) Overvalued.  MSU, TCU, USC, ND, FSU, Clemson, Utah, Arizona, BYU, NWU Ok St.  These teams are four or more places in the AP above their F+ Ratings.  The first six are in the pack ranked between 5 and 15, so not a big disparity really.  Utah, Arizona, BYU, Ok St., however, are about 10 places higher in the AP Poll than their F+ ratings.  NWU is ranked in the AP Poll an FBS-leading 24 places above their F+ rating. These four teams all have tough schedules, and I expect them to move down in the AP after a loss or two.

7) Voting with Their Hearts.  This is a perennial problem in the AP Poll; under the radar teams get a couple of early wins and a few sportswriters throw them some votes.  This week BYU vaulted into the Top 25 after their second consecutive, come-from-behind, Hail Mary win. Their F+ rating is only #33.  The Cougars are at UCLA and at TTUN before their schedule softens, so I expect at least one loss in the next two weeks.  Northwestern is another team making an AP Top 25 debut this week, but their F+ is only #47. Other teams in this group include Duke, Temple, NC St, Iowa, Cal, Toledo, and Houston.

8) Head Scratchers.  Louisville is 0-2 but sits at #35 for F+ with losses to Aub and Houston; they are statistically the highest rated team without a win.  They face Clemson next.  UNC Charlotte is undefeated (wins over GA State and Presbyterian) but they are ranked 105th for F+, the lowest ranked 2-0 team.  They are at Middle Tenn next week followed by FAU and the mighty, Nittany Lion-slaying, Temple Owls. Conference-USA, go figure.

Note: I expanded the F+ Table to 30 teams, because of the number receiving Top 25 votes.

F+ Combined Ratings vs. AP Rankings

Previous weeks:  Week 1

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