Eleven Warriors

Last week we broke down the first half of the 2013 schedule according to normalized offensive and defensive yards per play (YPP) data and found that things are looking pretty good for the Buckeyes. Will that change through the meat of the conference games? 

In case you don't remember from last week, yards per play numbers are highly correlated with overall successful units, and most of the top teams in terms of YPP are the usual suspects: Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Florida State, for instance. 

Once I normalized this data to better compare how much better or worse the Buckeyes are than their opponents, I found that the Ohio State offense and defenses were both good, but not excellent squads. The defense gave up about half a yard less than average per play, while the offense gained a little over a third of a yard more per play. 

Because this is normalized data, positive numbers on offensive YPP indicate offenses that are above average, while negative defensive YPP scores indicate better than average defenses (in number of standard deviations from the mean).

Remember those bell curves from college statistics and you'll get the idea. The absolute value furthest from zero is our winner in these projected matchups between units.

Iowa

A few years removed from the 2009 nail-biter finish that saw Devin Barclay become an OSU legend, the 2013 matchup is decidedly lopsided in favor of the Buckeyes. 

The 4-8 Hawkeyes were average on defense and terrible on offense under first-year offensive coordinator Greg Davis. The 2012 Iowa offense was much, much worse than average and does not match up well with the Buckeye defense. Even Shazier remains the only viable linebacker (which I think is unlikely), the Hawkeyes will be breaking in a new starting quarterback. 

Putting it mildly, the Buckeyes should be heavily favored in this matchup. 

It doesn't take long for the gloom and doom crowd to turn around when it comes to recruiting. In fact, all it really takes is one large bit of unexpected good news.

Get used to hearing about Danny Clark.

Whether it's a commitment or just a player naming Ohio State as his leader, Buckeye fans are similarly wired as every other group of fans in the country; they want good news and they want it now and often.

After Sunday's disappointment about losing Derek Kief to Alabama, Buckeye fans took solace in knowing that this week was a big one chock full of intriguing on-campus visitors. Most of them we knew about (Jalyn Holmes, Trevion Thompson, Sterling Jenkins, etc.) but some of the intrigue, like the arrival of California's Brandon Dawkins was a surprise.

As this incredible busy week hits the middle point, Ohio State is hoping to make an impact for 2014 and beyond and have done so — to this point — with a couple key visitors left.

Here's what we've gathered so far, including the skinny on a player who may be the top player in the class of 2017. Yes, 2017.

A big daddy indeed

"Big Daddy" Dan Wilkinson is a big strong man with big strong opinions.

A standout defensive lineman at Ohio State in the early 90s and then a Cincinnati Bengal for the first half of his career, he experienced some of the best of times and some of the worst of times. Which is why we were delighted to have him come on the Dubcast and talk with Michael and me.

I'll be honest: I love this interview. Big Daddy is funny, forthright, and opinionated about a whole swath of issues, and I highly recommend listening to this if you're an OSU fan or a Bengals fan who wants to nod fiercely in agreement while clenching your jaw in rage.

And of course, we talk about the various topics of the day, including the untimely end of E. Gordon Gee's tenure at Ohio State, and in happier news, the induction of John Cooper into the OSU Sports Hall of Fame. Plus Ask Us Anything (which you can do at elevendubcast@gmail.com!), so this is another action packed, summer fun edition of the Eleven Dubcast.

0:23- Michael and I talk about Gee, Ohio State recruiting, and talk a little about the legacy of JHC and what that means to the Ohio State community at large.

18:53- Speaking of which, Dan is a large member of that Ohio State community, and he's got a lot to say about the topic of what it was like to hang with Mr. Cooper, but he also does a great job at talking about the role of recruiting, the transition between college and the NFL, and exactly why the Bengals were so bad in the 90s.

39:51- Ask Us Anything! I feel a little bad about maybe not living up to my Ask Us Anything responsibilities this time, but to be honest, arbitrary lists of things are just ridiculous. Geez.

55:20- On the other hand, at least we're not making fun of dying people!

•     Download mp3 (53.0 mb)
•     Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes
•     Subscribe to the podcast on RSS

Music for the Dubcast this week was Crunkburger in Paradise, a mashup by Tanner4105, My Favorite Mutiny by the Coup, and The Volcano Song by the Budos Band. And that wraps it up for this month, see you guys in July!

Eleven Warriors continues with its weekly feature on the incoming freshmen that constitute Ohio State's highly regarded 2013 recruiting class, as the 2013 football season itself approaches. The eighteenth installment of this now 24-part series titled Better Know A Buckeye profiles Trey Johnson, a linebacker commitment from Lawrenceville, Georgia. Johnson's commitment during halftime of the Under Armour All-American Game may have started off Ohio State's fantastic finish in earnest.

Trey Johnson

The Buckeyes were doing fine before Johnson's commitment, though his verbal commitment on national television may have been the tipping point. Mike Mitchell followed the next day. All told, six high profile commitments followed that of Trey Johnson, including marquee names like Dontre Wilson and Vonn Bell.

Johnson's commitment to Ohio State was a much longer process than those seen in Better Know A Buckeye profiles to date. Johnson was committed to Auburn for almost a year and a half before flipping to the Buckeyes. This was the result of a due diligence of Ohio State's coaches, especially Urban Meyer, and some good fortune that saw Ohio State be the benefactor of Auburn's post-national championship implosion. This story is retold below.

Thereafter, the feature proceeds in linear fashion, consistent with other profiles published on this site. A player analysis is provided, highlighting strengths and areas for improvement. I project a possible redshirt in 2013 before concluding he will very likely play this upcoming season. I then provide highlight film and some miscellaneous things about Trey Johnson that you may find interesting before concluding he is better known. I put him on the board accordingly.

Height: 6-2
Weight: 225lbs
Fake 40: 4.5
High School: Central Gwinnett High School; Lawrenceville, Georgia

Follow @THEtreyjohnson

Yesterday, out of morbid curiosity, I wanted to see if I could write an entire sentence in cursive. After the first three attempts ended with my usual cursive-print hybrid, I finally managed to get half a sentence out in barely-legible cursive. That was until I came to the capital cursive I. I knew the shape, but I didn't know which side of the I its ridiculous tail protruded from. Both ways looked okay to me. The saga ended with me going outside, crumpling to the ground and crying like a child and shaking my fists in anger at the sky.

My gosh, how much time has been wasted teaching our nation's studentry cursive writing? No wonder the world is laughing at our flailing schools. They might as well be trying to revive Latin, because cursive writing is headed to a grave plot right next door.

In my youthful naivety, I actually took pride in this absolutely pointless exercise. I was so proud to learn my cursive alphabet because I was a freaking moron. (Insert somebody supremely witty rushing to their keyboard to type "YOU STILL ARE, BUDDY!" as if I'd object to their notion or be offended by it.)

Here's an idea: abolish cursive writing and teach third graders useful skills like learning Mandarin or computer programming. There is no point to cursive writing other than to look pretentious when writing a letter, and when was the last time anybody in America wrote a letter?

The prosecution rests, Your Honor.

OHIO STATE FOOTBALL NIXES '16 OUT-OF-CONFERENCE GAME. The Chippewas of Central Michigan had been on the 2016 docket, but according to the Columbus Dispatch, Ohio State nixed the MAC-B1G banger yesterday with a few words typed onto a piece of papyrus and faxed to Central Michigan's athletic offices. (That's how all Real Serious Business is handled, right? The fax machine?)

The cancelation comes on the heels of the B1G's divisional re-alignment and nine conference game slates which are scheduled to take place next year. Ohio State opens the 2016 campaign on September 3rd with a game against Bowling Green. The next week of September 10th is the other game which was probably up for cancelation: a date with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The week after that, on September 17th, the Buckeyes travel to desolate Norman, Oklahoma, to tangle with Sooners. Hopefully the Sooners are pegged as pre-season world-beaters or the B1G steps its game up, because I doubt that out-of-conference schedule will be enough to satisfy the hating-ass punditry.

Speaking of schedules, I just realized I'm to be 30 in 2016. Hopefully the Buckeyes win those games, or whatever, because I hope my corpse is rotted in the ground and worms are feasting on my petrified intestines by then.

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs continue their back-and-forth battle for an NBA title – a six game series that will end this week, in Miami. 

Had the opportunity to take a headline literally, since age 16

Once the trophy is raised, some of these guys will shed a tear and consider how crazy it is that they've accomplished a childhood dream, considering how little fanfare they created coming out of high school. 

Certainly, there is a guy that has so deeply indulged us with his clearly undervalued importance to us peasants, since the day he was deified.

Others are a reminder that players develop at different ages, and can flourish once they’re placed in the right college environment.

Even in an era of widespread communication, those with the slightest hint of NBA talent can still slip through, unnoticed by major Division-1 college coaches. 

The following players were lightly recruited coming out of high school. Maybe, their championship mentality and determination were shaped by how they were perceived coming into college:

There are currently 10 players in Ohio State's 2014 recruiting class. When National Signing Day 2014 rolls around, the class will have around 20 members.

Webb is the top member of the 2014 class

You, fan of math, have realized that we're at the halfway point of this class, which has the makings of a top-10 class nationally if the next few months go according to plan.

Of the 10 future Buckeyes, four are expected to play on the offensive side of the ball when they arrive in Columbus:  WR Lonnie Johnson, OL Marcelys Jones, OL Kyle Trout, and WR/ATH Parris Campbell.

There are also four defenders the Buckeyes have in this class so far. Those four: DE Dylan Thompson, LB Kyle Berger, LB Dante Booker Jr., and CB Damon Webb.

Sam Hubbard, who plays linebacker for Cincinnati Moeller, could easily end up on the offensive or defensive side of the football when he arrives in Columbus next summer. He could slide into the tight end slot on offense or play defensive end, linebacker, safety, or Star if the Ohio State coaching staff decides playing defense is best for his career at Ohio State.

German born kicker/punter Sean Nuernberger is the lone specialist in the class. He'll be the only specialist in this class come signing day.

Join me after the jump to take an in-depth look at the first 10 commitments of Ohio State's 2014 recruiting class. 

I turn 40 years young later this year which puts my sports-formative years squarely in the crosshairs of the John Harold Cooper era at Ohio State. 

Sure, properly raised, I was a already a Buckeye diehard, having cut my teeth on the Earle Bruce era but it's those mid-teens to mid-20's that truly first bring out all the emotions and experiences come with being an "all-in" fan of any team. 

To have those said sports-formative years bump against JHC's tenure in Columbus can only be summarized as both a gift and a curse. 

The southern gentleman, already enshrined into the College Football Hall of Fame, will now also be inducted into Ohio State's Athletics Hall of Fame, and rightfully so. That said, is anyone surprised it took longer to make into the Ohio State version?

Probably not. And you know why. 

Seventy-five days from now the Ohio State Buckeyes are going to play the Buffalo Bulls, and they're going to beat the living shit out of them.

Home openers are impossible to look past, so Buffalo will get the full, gruesome treatment and no one will bat an eyelash at the outcome. People will just be relieved that college football is finally back and happy there's a three-day weekend as well.

San Diego State visits Columbus the following Saturday. That guest appearance on the schedule was elevated when Vanderbilt of the SEC - a conference that will play anyone, anywhere - abruptly canceled what would have been the season opener. The Buckeyes should win that game too, as well as the roadie the following week at Berkeley.

And right around mid-September is when the raindrops that are already falling - in June - should build into a full deluge of preemptive outrage: The Buckeyes' schedule sucks, and they don't deserve to play in the BCS title game even if they continue to win all of their games.

This is because official BCS rankings in September will not only have merit, they also won't actually exist yet - which just makes them scarier, especially to people outside of the Ohio State loyalty program.

If the Buckeyes make it to 3-0, that's when their detractors will begin to cluck in earnest. It's already happening now, months before the season even starts.

This means that Ohio State has moved into a gated community normally reserved for the Boise States of the world, but without the media welcome wagon, general goodwill or Pat Forde blithely offering up his chastity.

A happy Steelemas to you! In these limp days of June, what better way to brighten up your day than Phil Steele's preview of Ohio State?

Because it's never too early for bullet points or listicles, here are three interesting tidbits from Steele's preview:

1. Last year's least attended road game and Big Ten home game were at Indiana, with 48,880, and Purdue, with 105,290 attending. For shame, Hoosier State.
2. OSU has been much better at beating the spread versus Big Ten opponents (50-28-2 since 2003) than non-conference opponents (25-20).
3. Steele predicts that this year's linebacker corps will have similar production to last year. With all due respect to departees Zach Boren and Etienne Sabino – none to Storm Klein – Boren's inexperience, Klein's rust/plodding play and Sabino's journeyman career contributed to last year's underwhelming results.

Complaints about the thoroughness of Steele's preview and how much ink he uses to tout how accurate he is are absolutely valid. But a couple of things excuse those peccadilloes.

For one, he's previewing every single team by himself, an enormous task. He goes much deeper than the other national preview magazines in their omnibus previews, and does have a track record of reasonable accuracy.

Mostly, though, it's the tradition of looking forward to Steele's magazine that everyone enjoys. Steele's preview is a relic of a time when information on schools outside one's own was much harder to come by, and there was far less football content to consume in the summers. The Eleven Warriors team can and does provide more in-depth coverage, but as longevity and nostalgia go Steele has us beat.

Speaking of football content in the summer, the free NCAA 14 demo will be available for download today and Ohio State-Michigan is one of the available matchups. I have a hunch that highly elusive Braxton Miller "QB #5" will be outrunning Desmond Morgan "LB #48" et al on speed options in a few hours: even if the EA series is stagnant, it'd be hard to pass up this demo.