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Week One F+ Ratings vs. AP Poll

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
September 10, 2015 at 2:29pm
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There has been a lot of discussion this week about the mighty SEC and its unprecedented 10 teams in the AP Top 25.  As a self-professed hater of preseason and early season polls, I decided to look at Football Outsiders' Week One F+ Ratings for comparison.  Personally, I find the F+ ratings a better indicator of statistical, on-field performance based on the amount of data they use (every snap, down-and-distance, garbage time, etc.) and the rigor they put behind their ratings.

In the table below, I placed the teams in order of current F+ rating and added AP rankings data (Week 2, Preseason and Change) in the last three columns.  A few things jump out:

1) 8 SEC teams appear in the Top 25 for F+, not 10 as in the AP Poll.  Miss St and Tenn are at 26 and 29 in F+ ratings.  That's still way more than the next closest P5 conference, PAC 12, which has 5, followed by the ACC (4) and the B1G and Big XII with 3 each.

2) ASU and Stanford are still in the F+ Top 25 despite losing.  In fact, ASU actually climbed 3 spots, while they dropped 14 in the AP Poll.  Stanford dropped one spot in F+, but fell 20 places in the AP voting.

3) Four SEC teams (UGA, Ark, Ole Miss, and Auburn) dropped in F+, despite winning last weekend.  Ole Miss dropped 4 spots, putting them closer to their AP ranking, and AUB dropped 5 spots to 18 (which is a stunning 12 places lower than their AP Ranking).  USC, UCLA, OU and Clemson also dropped with a win.

4) Eight teams are 'undervalued' in the AP Top 25, appearing four or more places lower than their F+ rating: ORE, UGA, LSU (I don't know how they have a rating without taking a snap), UCLA, Ole Miss, ASU, Stanford and VaTech.

5) Ten teams are 'overvalued' in the AP Top 25, appearing four or more places above their F+ rating: TCU, USC, ND, Auburn, Clem, A&M, ARK, AZ, UT, & Tenn.  Four of those teams are in the SEC.  Auburn has the largest disparity at 12 places.

6) tOSU and 'Bama are clearly a step above the field in F+ ratings, about 8-10 points ahead of Oregon, which is pretty much alone at #3. After that it's gets competitive at 4-9, all within 6 points of each other.  10-20 are somewhat close within about 8 points of each other.

I know it's early in the season, and lot will change as more games are played and we have more statistics to evaluate. But based on what I saw last weekend, I put a little more faith in this index than some of the overreaction and subjectivity we see in the early AP Polls.  I'm interested in hearing the community's thoughts.

F+ Combined Ratings
Team Rec F/+ Rk Last Wk Change AP Last Wk Change
Ohio State
1-0
 
69.4% 1 1 0 1 1 0  
Alabama
1-0 67.2% 2 2 0 2 3 1
Oregon 1-0 59.8% 3 3 0 7 7 0
Baylor 1-0 53.6% 4 6 2 4 4 0
Georgia
 
1-0 53.1% 5 4 -1 10 9 1
Michigan State
 
1-0 48.2% 6 8 2 5 5 0
LSU
 
0-0 47.9% 7 9 2 14 14 0
UCLA
 
1-0 47.3% 8 7 -1 13 13 0
Ole Miss
 
1-0 47.2% 9 5 -4 17 17 0
TCU
 
1-0 45.5% 10 10 0 3 2 -1
Florida State
 
1-0 44.7% 11 12 1 11 10 -1
USC
 
1-0 42.1% 12 11 -1 8 8 0
Notre Dame
 
1-0 41.6% 13 14 1 9 11 2
Georgia Tech
 
1-0 40.9% 14 16 2 15 16 1
Arizona State
 
0-1 39.8% 15 18 3 29 15 -14
Oklahoma
 
1-0 38.4% 16 15 -1 19 19 0
Boise State
 
1-0 38.3% 17 21 4 20 23 3
Auburn 1-0 38.1% 18 13 -5 6 6 0
Stanford
 
0-1 38.1% 19 17 -1 41 21 -20
Missouri
 
1-0 37.6% 20 22 2 21 24 3
Clemson
 
1-0 36.3% 21 19 -2 12 12 0
Texas A&M 1-0 35.8% 22 23 1 16 27 11
Arkansas
 
1-0 34.4% 23 20 -3 18 18 0
Wisconsin 0-1 32.6% 24 25 1 26 20 -6
Virginia Tech 0-1 32.3% 25 26 1 29 UNR -

 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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