There has been a lot of discussion this week about the mighty SEC and its unprecedented 10 teams in the AP Top 25. As a self-professed hater of preseason and early season polls, I decided to look at Football Outsiders' Week One F+ Ratings for comparison. Personally, I find the F+ ratings a better indicator of statistical, on-field performance based on the amount of data they use (every snap, down-and-distance, garbage time, etc.) and the rigor they put behind their ratings.
In the table below, I placed the teams in order of current F+ rating and added AP rankings data (Week 2, Preseason and Change) in the last three columns. A few things jump out:
1) 8 SEC teams appear in the Top 25 for F+, not 10 as in the AP Poll. Miss St and Tenn are at 26 and 29 in F+ ratings. That's still way more than the next closest P5 conference, PAC 12, which has 5, followed by the ACC (4) and the B1G and Big XII with 3 each.
2) ASU and Stanford are still in the F+ Top 25 despite losing. In fact, ASU actually climbed 3 spots, while they dropped 14 in the AP Poll. Stanford dropped one spot in F+, but fell 20 places in the AP voting.
3) Four SEC teams (UGA, Ark, Ole Miss, and Auburn) dropped in F+, despite winning last weekend. Ole Miss dropped 4 spots, putting them closer to their AP ranking, and AUB dropped 5 spots to 18 (which is a stunning 12 places lower than their AP Ranking). USC, UCLA, OU and Clemson also dropped with a win.
4) Eight teams are 'undervalued' in the AP Top 25, appearing four or more places lower than their F+ rating: ORE, UGA, LSU (I don't know how they have a rating without taking a snap), UCLA, Ole Miss, ASU, Stanford and VaTech.
5) Ten teams are 'overvalued' in the AP Top 25, appearing four or more places above their F+ rating: TCU, USC, ND, Auburn, Clem, A&M, ARK, AZ, UT, & Tenn. Four of those teams are in the SEC. Auburn has the largest disparity at 12 places.
6) tOSU and 'Bama are clearly a step above the field in F+ ratings, about 8-10 points ahead of Oregon, which is pretty much alone at #3. After that it's gets competitive at 4-9, all within 6 points of each other. 10-20 are somewhat close within about 8 points of each other.
I know it's early in the season, and lot will change as more games are played and we have more statistics to evaluate. But based on what I saw last weekend, I put a little more faith in this index than some of the overreaction and subjectivity we see in the early AP Polls. I'm interested in hearing the community's thoughts.
Team | Rec | F/+ | Rk | Last Wk | Change | AP | Last Wk | Change | |||
Ohio State |
|
69.4% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||
|
1-0 | 67.2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
Oregon | 1-0 | 59.8% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | |||
Baylor | 1-0 | 53.6% | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |||
Georgia |
1-0 | 53.1% | 5 | 4 | -1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | |||
Michigan State |
1-0 | 48.2% | 6 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |||
LSU |
0-0 | 47.9% | 7 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | |||
UCLA |
1-0 | 47.3% | 8 | 7 | -1 | 13 | 13 | 0 | |||
Ole Miss |
1-0 | 47.2% | 9 | 5 | -4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | |||
TCU |
1-0 | 45.5% | 10 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | |||
Florida State |
1-0 | 44.7% | 11 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 10 | -1 | |||
USC |
1-0 | 42.1% | 12 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | |||
Notre Dame |
1-0 | 41.6% | 13 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 2 | |||
Georgia Tech |
1-0 | 40.9% | 14 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 1 | |||
Arizona State |
0-1 | 39.8% | 15 | 18 | 3 | 29 | 15 | -14 | |||
Oklahoma |
1-0 | 38.4% | 16 | 15 | -1 | 19 | 19 | 0 | |||
Boise State |
1-0 | 38.3% | 17 | 21 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 3 | |||
Auburn | 1-0 | 38.1% | 18 | 13 | -5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | |||
Stanford |
0-1 | 38.1% | 19 | 17 | -1 | 41 | 21 | -20 | |||
Missouri |
1-0 | 37.6% | 20 | 22 | 2 | 21 | 24 | 3 | |||
Clemson |
1-0 | 36.3% | 21 | 19 | -2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | |||
Texas A&M | 1-0 | 35.8% | 22 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 27 | 11 | |||
Arkansas |
1-0 | 34.4% | 23 | 20 | -3 | 18 | 18 | 0 | |||
Wisconsin | 0-1 | 32.6% | 24 | 25 | 1 | 26 | 20 | -6 | |||
Virginia Tech | 0-1 | 32.3% | 25 | 26 | 1 | 29 | UNR | - |