NavyBuckeye91's picture

NavyBuckeye91 12th Warrior

Dayton (via Columbus)

Member since 27 August 2014 | Blog

Born and raised in Columbus, OH. Grew up on campus at tOSU as my father was faculty, and I have always loved the Buckeyes. Graduated from the US Naval Academy and have served in the Navy ever since.


  • SPORTS MOMENT: Watching Keith Byars lead the Buckeyes to a come-from-behind win against Illinois in the Shoe.
  • COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYER: John 'Hondo' Havlicek
  • NFL TEAM: It hurts too much to be an NFL fan in Ohio.
  • NHL TEAM: Blue Jackets
  • NBA TEAM: Cavaliers
  • MLB TEAM: Reds
  • SOCCER TEAM: None - I'd rather watch lacrosse.

Recent Activity

Comment 3 minutes ago

I think we may be 'arguing' the same point.  Personally, I think tOSU is one of the four best teams in the country.  The other three are Clemson, 'Bama and OU.  Unfortunately, the Buckeyes lost to the one team they absolutely needed to beat - MSU.  Win that game, and they are in the CCG against a weak Iowa.

I will defend tOSU against a 2-loss MSU, 1-loss Iowa, 1-loss Clemson, 1-loss UNC, 2-loss Stanford, and 2-loss UF.  The ACC is weak, Clemson has two signature wins and one of those (ND) is highly suspect (two wins over FBS teams that are 8-4; lost to the 2 decent FBS teams they played), UNC has played a softer schedule than Baylor, TCU and Iowa and hasn't played an FBS team with more than 8 wins.  I just can't defend them against an undefeated Iowa or Clemson, or a 1-loss Bama and OU.

Like you, I try to be a realist, but I see so much "Bama is overrated because of SEC bias" from Buckeye fans.  Taking the bias out of it, 'Bama is a good football team.  If they win the SEC, they deserve to be in the Playoff.  If they lose, the Buckeyes should be in ahead of UF.

As for your dice analogy, I would say they are equally unrealistic.  The odds are the odds regardless of your feelings when rolling a dice.  In football, however, the odds hold up until first contact with the enemy; then the enemy gets a vote.

Comment 19 minutes ago

I agree that coaches shouldn't push a back that hard in a single game, but they rested Henry last week with less than 20 carries. 

Your point about the NFL is off base though.  NFL backs get paid, a lot, and the teams only have a 53-man roster compared to a college team with 85 scholarships.  NFL teams are guaranteed to play 16 games against the fastest, hardest hitting players 128 FBS teams give them to man 32 pro teams.  FBS has a 12 game regular season, maybe 14 games with a CCG/bowl game, and two teams will play 15 games.  More than 2/3 of the guys hitting Henry in college will never play in the NFL.  Pro teams have money invested in their premiere players and owners don't want to see that squandered. 

Also, as I look through your link. a lot of those RBs (with 30+ carries in a game, including Jamie Morris) did so in December - playoffs.  When winning really matters, they'll ride that pony all day long.

Comment 49 minutes ago

Are you seriously referencing Akron and Tulsa as decent non-conference wins just because those teams finished above 0.500?

No, I stated that in the context of the Big XII, OU's was the best OOC schedule.  From my post "OU played the toughest OOC schedule of the Big XII contenders."  Meaning their OOC schedule is better than oSu, Baylor and TCU; they all played an FCS school and their FBS opponents have combined losing records.

You have this habit of listing raw winning percentages and past rankings as if they are key indicators of schedule strength.

I'm not sure where that comment is coming from. I've never used past rankings as an indicator of SoS.  I only use end of season rankings (if I use them at all) and records against FBS opponents.  Perhaps you've read my weekly posts comparing the AP and CFP polls to the F/+ and S&P+ advanced analytics?  I'm a big believer in advanced stats, so I'm happy to walk that dog if you'd like.

OU is #3 in F/+, #3 in S&P+ and and #2 in FEI.   The Sooners are 3rd in Offensive S&P+ and 13th in Defense.
'Bama is #1 in F/+, S&P+ and FEI.  They are 28th in S&P+ Offense and 1st in Defense.

OBTW - if you like advanced stats, Ole Miss is ranked #6, LSU #14, Ark #15, Tenn #20 and Miss St #25 in F/+.  One more reason 'Bama is ranked where they are.

Comment 1 hour ago

I didn't think so, based on your posts historically, but I can't tell with some of the folks on here.  People seem to think taking an 8-5 team in the AAC and making them 11-1 is some kind of miracle.  Houston is winning the games this year that they should have been winning before Herman arrived based on their talent.

Comment 1 hour ago

Hutinwabbits - that knife cuts both ways.  What do the Buckeyes' FBS opponents' opponents look like? 

Va Tech - win over 2-10 Purdue. Lost to tOSU and ECU OOC. 1 win over a team over .500 in conf.
IU - 7 point win over 3-9 Wake Forest, 3-pt win over 10-2 WKU (lost to both P-5 teams it played). No P-5 wins OOC.
MD - lost to FCS Richmond and WVU OOC. Best win OOC win was 8-4 USF. No P-5 wins OOC.
PSU - lost to Temple OOC.  Did not play a P-5 team OOC.
Rutgers - beat Army and 0-12 KU OOC.  Lost to WSU OOC.  Lost to every B1G team except 6-6 IU. No wins over a team above .500.
Minn - lost to TCU, and beat 3 G5 teams OOC (each by 3 points). Beat 2 teams with winning records, 8-4 Ohio U & 7-5 CSU. No P-5 wins OOC.
UI - lost to UNC OOC. Only 2 P-5 wins, both over B1G teams < .500. Best win over Mid Tenn St. 7-5.
MSU - beat 9-3 Ore OOC. Beat 3 G5 teams with 7 or more wins. Lost to 5-7 Nebraska.
TTUN - beat 2-10 Ore St and 9-3 BYU OOC. Beat one other team with 9+ wins (Northwestern). Lost to three teams with 9+ wins.

That's who the Buckeyes' P-5 opponents played.  Five wins over P-5 opponents and four losses, and at least one team did not play any FBS teams. Those five teams are a combined 16-43; the four P-5 teams you mentioned above (Louisville, Syracuse, Ga Tech, and ASU) have a combined record of 30-28.  I'm not putting 'Bama on a pedestal, just stating the fact that their opponents have better records than the Buckeyes in the aggregate.  Moreover, against that competition, 'Bama has put up almost identical numbers as the Buckeyes in YPG and PPG on both offense and defense. 

Comment 2 hours ago

I'm with you Barnsey69.  Looking at S&P+, UF is 5th overall on defense and 4th against the run.  They held Fournette to 180 yards, but the secondary gave up some 50+ yard pass plays in the second quarter when LSU just opened things up and scored 4 unanswered TDs.  I don't see Saban doing that in Atlanta; he doesn't trust Kiffin/Coker.  I think this one will be closer than the people are anticipating.

Comment 2 hours ago

I think honest Heisman voters will see through what Saban is doing.  Elliot is the far better all around player and I have heard more than a few bring up 'all purpose yards' when they talk about Christian McCaffrey from Stanford.  Elliot has certainly been more consistent than Henry this season.  Zeke had one bad game, where he really only got 12 carries, against one of the best defenses in CFB.  Henry had 4 games under 100 yards: 18 carries for 96 yards vs. Mid Tenn St; 13 carries for 52 yards vs. LA Monroe; 27 carries for 95 yards vs. Ark; and 9 carries for 68 yards vs. Charleston So.  Elliot has a higher average YPC than Henry (6.4 YPC vs, 6.1 YPC), and he has twice as many catches and nearly twice as many receiving yards.  Elliot also has two games where he averaged over 11 YPC (IU and TTUN); Henry has only one and it was against Wisc.

Comment 2 hours ago

Henry has 295 carries on the year.
Fournette has 271.
Elliot has 262.

Although I agree with the general concept that too much use can be detrimental, I think it would be better to look at overall use rather than just carries.  If you throw in receptions and punt returns:

Henry has another 10, taking him to 305
Fournette has another 18, taking him to 289
Elliot has another 26/2, which takes him up to 290.

But even that doesn't tell the whole story.  The Slobs call Elliot an honorary Slob because of his blocking.  So really, we should be looking at total snaps each back is in for, and how many hits they are taking/delivering.  All told, they are probably about even or at least within a hit or two across 12 games. 

Comment 3 hours ago

I'm good with it either way.  TBH, Iowa had the softest schedule in the B1G (never faced one of the Big 4 in the B1G East, played an FCS team OOC, and only played 3 FBS teams with winning records).  OU played the toughest OOC schedule of the Big XII contenders (no FCS, all bowl eligible: 7-5 Akron, 8-4 Tenn and 6-6 Tulsa), they've looked great down the stretch, but they have the ugliest loss of the three to 4-7 Texas (gonna be 4-8 after the Baylor game this Sat.).

'Bama will lose in the first round of the CFP again, if they make it.

Comment 3 hours ago

Northwestern has two bad losses: 40-10 at home vs. Iowa and 38-0 at TTUN.  Getting shutout twice is not a good look.  Stanford's two losses are by a combined 12 points, and they lost to Northwestern in Evanston. 

Iowa has two good wins: 9-3 Wisc and 10-2 Stanford.  Stanford has wins over 10-2 ND, 8-4 WSU, 8-4 UCLA, and 8-4 USC.  Move that game to a neutral site, and I think the Cardinal wins.

Comment 3 hours ago

Spot on, Catch 5.  I hate 'Bama as much as the next 11W, but the fact is they have beaten a better group of teams than anyone in FBS.

'Bama - wins over FBS opponents with a combined W-L record of 71-48 (.597 win %)
tOSU - wins over FBS opponents with a combined W-L record of 63-70 (.473 win %)

'Bama - wins over 7 P-5 teams with records above .500, including 9-3 Wisconsin
tOSU - wins over 2 P-5 teams with records above .500

As much as it pains me, the Buckeyes just don't have a resume that comes close to 'Bama's. 

Now, if UNC pulls an upset (and I think Clemson could Clemson), Thomas would have an argument for the Buckeye's to be in.  The Tar Heels' opponents are a combined 66-75 (that includes 9-2 FCS Carolina A&T and 4-7 FCS Delaware); they lost to 3-9 SCar; and they only have wins over FBS teams with a W-L record of 51-57 (.472 win %). UNC has wins over 4 FBS teams with winning records, but the best two are Pitt (8-4) and Miami (8-4) and none are ranked.

Comment 3 hours ago

hey don't have any headline wins, but the overall body of work is pretty good, especially compared to other teams at the top like Iowa, Ohio State, and Clemson.

This is exactly what the committee is looking at.  It has nothing to do with being in the SEC or beating ranked teams, which OBTW, tOSU has only beaten one: 9-3 TTUN.

Of the possible contenders (those FBS teams with only 1 loss or less), 'Bama by far has beaten more P-5 teams with winning records (7 total) and more P-5 teams with 8 or more wins (6 total including two 9-win teams).  The FBS opponents they've beaten, have a combined W-L record of 71-48 (.596 win%). Yes they played FCS Charleston Southern (9-2, won the Big South conf, #8 seed in FCS playoff), but that FCS team probably could beat Hawaii on tOSU's schedule.

Comment 4 hours ago

they have not beaten one team that is now ranked in the top 25

Although this is true, their opponents' combined record is 89-53 (.627) - no other team in in contention for the CFP has played a schedule that loaded. They have wins over 6 FBS teams that have 8+ wins (including Wisconsin OOC) as well as 7-5 Conf USA team OOC.

If the Gators can muster some offense, which will be hard against 'Bama's defense, I think they've got a shot beating the Tide on a neutral field.  UF has the best defense (according to S&P+) that 'Bama will have seen since playing Wisconsin in Week 1.  The Gator's are ranked 4th against the rush and 7th against the pass; if they lock down Henry and force Coker to throw they may be able to force turnovers.  If you look at the LSU game - it got out of hand in the second quarter when LSU completed a couple of 50 yard pass plays.  I don't see Saban letting Kiffin/Coker try anything like that.  Running Henry 46 times against Auburn may have helped his Heisman numbers, but I think it was a strategic mistake and may well cost 'Bama this Saturday.

Comment 5 hours ago

2. Houston

Clearly this is only based on Tom Herman and not on Houston's resume.  The Cougars have a worse resume than Baylor: their opponents' combined record is 60-81 (.426), with wins over only four teams at .500 or better (7-5 Louisville; 6-6 Tulsa; 9-3 Memphis; and 9-2 Navy). They nearly lost to 7-5 UC and did lose to 6-6 UConn.

If Houston gets a New Years Six Bowl game (must beat Temple to get in), I'll bet they get manhandled by a P-5 offense.

Comment 5 hours ago

Thanks, Chipmunk.  Not gonna lie, I am supremely disappointed with Navy's performance on defense; and the turnover to start the second half killed (same thing happened at ND). 

Ward is a handful, but I don't think Houston's defense is very good. They will get beat up by a P-5 team in a New Year's Six bowl game.  When you let Navy rack up 312 yards passing (probably a 20-year high in that stat); big boys are gonna pass all over you.  I like Herman, but the Cougars opponents are a combined 60-81 this year.  They only have 4 wins over teams that are .500 or better (Louisville 7-5; Tulsa 6-6; Memphis 9-3; Navy 9-2).