I think we may be 'arguing' the same point. Personally, I think tOSU is one of the four best teams in the country. The other three are Clemson, 'Bama and OU. Unfortunately, the Buckeyes lost to the one team they absolutely needed to beat - MSU. Win that game, and they are in the CCG against a weak Iowa.
I will defend tOSU against a 2-loss MSU, 1-loss Iowa, 1-loss Clemson, 1-loss UNC, 2-loss Stanford, and 2-loss UF. The ACC is weak, Clemson has two signature wins and one of those (ND) is highly suspect (two wins over FBS teams that are 8-4; lost to the 2 decent FBS teams they played), UNC has played a softer schedule than Baylor, TCU and Iowa and hasn't played an FBS team with more than 8 wins. I just can't defend them against an undefeated Iowa or Clemson, or a 1-loss Bama and OU.
Like you, I try to be a realist, but I see so much "Bama is overrated because of SEC bias" from Buckeye fans. Taking the bias out of it, 'Bama is a good football team. If they win the SEC, they deserve to be in the Playoff. If they lose, the Buckeyes should be in ahead of UF.
As for your dice analogy, I would say they are equally unrealistic. The odds are the odds regardless of your feelings when rolling a dice. In football, however, the odds hold up until first contact with the enemy; then the enemy gets a vote.