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Week Six F/+ Ratings Vs. AP Poll

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
October 16, 2015 at 5:20pm
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Better late than never.  I was on travel this week, so this had to wait.  My apologies, but with all the awesome articles on 11W this week, I doubt anyone was missing it.  There were some minor changes in the Top 15 F/+ Ratings after last Saturday’s games, but nothing truly unexpected.  Below that, however, there was some major movement by both AP ranked and unranked teams.  We should be past all preseason bias in the FEI ratings beginning with next week’s release.  Despite a better offensive performance against Maryland, the Buckeyes continue to drop in F/+ rating and now sit at #15 in the nation.  tOSU slid three spots in both S&P+ (28th) and FEI (10th).  Maybe Coach Meyer should post the Buckeyes’ computer ratings in the locker room to help motivate the team.

Observations from Week Six’s data

1) Clemson didn’t Clemson.  We have a new #1 in F/+, and it’s Clemson thanks to their efficiency in beating Georgia Tech.  Jumping nearly 11 percentage points in F/+, the Tigers stole the lead from a sliding Crimson Tide.  Clemson (63%) and ‘Bama (61.1%) have a clear advantage over the field by at least 13 percentage points in F/+.   TTUN sits relatively alone at #3 (48.5 % F/+ Rating).  #4-11 are all within +/- 2-3% of their mean, so I would consider them pretty even between 44-39%.  tOSU sits square in the middle of #12-19 with an F/+ of 34.2%.

2) Biggest Losers.  The list is growing.  Since Week One, 11 AP Top 25 teams have dropped from the rankings, including five teams that slid 40 or more places in F/+ rating: Oregon, Auburn, Mizzou, Arizona, and SCar. I expect UGA to join this group, if Richt doesn’t pull it together. The Bulldogs have dropped a cumulative 30 spots in F/+ from #4 in Week One to #34; they received enough votes to be #30 in the AP Poll. USC is anther preseason AP Top 25 team that is no longer ranked; however the Trojans have actually improved their F/+ rating from #11 to #7 over the season.  They’ve got a chance to rebound with the voters if they beat ND.

3) Biggest Winners.  11 teams (44%) in the current AP Top 25 were not preseason ranked: Utah, UF, A&M, TTUN, Ok St., Iowa, Northwestern, Toledo, Cal, Houston and Duke.  All of those teams moved up 12 of more places in F/+ ratings from Week One, with eight increasing by 20 or more spots.  As expected, Duke and Houston entered the poll this week.  Toledo (#35), Cal (#38), and Houston (#50) are clearly outside the top 25 for F/+ despite their AP Rankings.  Cal and Houston have remaining games against teams with better F/+ ratings, so they may have a challenge staying in the AP Poll. 

4) Teams to Watch.  Navy and WKU have moved up every week in F/+ and now sit just outside the Top 25 in the AP Poll as well F/+ ratings.  Navy has moved up from #60 to #27, making the Midshipmen the highest rated non-P5 team for F/+.  The Hill Toppers climbed from #53 to #29, with only Boise State separating them. BSU, although ranked in the AP, has actually slid seven spots in F/+ this season. These three, one-loss, Group of Five teams have a shot to win their respective conferences and a chance at a New Year’s Six bowl if they continue to win.

5) AP Top 25 Matchups.  I was 2-0 last week, which brings me to 5-2 on the season. Conversely, I went 0-3 in my upset picks (KSU, WVU and Navy).  Despite losing, all three teams played outstanding games, kept things close (Navy did mostly, but gave up two TDs on short fields), and now rank in the Top 30 for F/+.  KSU actually jumped 12 spots to #19, and Navy moved up two spots to #27.  WVU slid four places to #25 with the close loss to Ok State.  After weeks of lingering well below the voters’ ranking, Ok State finally moved up in F/+ to #20 only four spots from their AP #16. Cal also jumped 13 places in F/+ to #38, despite of their loss to Utah.

Last night featured #18 UCLA @ #15 Stanford; The Cardinal blew out the Bruins. Of course I can say that would have been my pick, but who’s going to believe me.  Amiright?  I will say that F/+ predicted a Cardinal win, as did a comparison of the team’s respective S&P+ offensive and defensive ratings. I’m taking partial credit.

#17 Iowa @ #20 Northwestern.  These teams are within 6% in F/+ rating.  The Wildcats’ defense is #4 in S&P+ versus the Hawkeyes’ #44 rated offense; likewise Iowa’s #21 defense holds an advantage over Northwestern’s #93 offense.  As a tie breaker, the Wildcats are #5 in SoS while the Hawkeyes’ schedule is #70.  This game is likely for the B1G West Division and B1G COY honors.  I like Fitzgerald’s odds at home against Ferentz and Co.: Northwestern by a TD.

#9 A&M vs. #10 ‘Bama.  A&M’s offense and ‘Bama’s defense are close in S&P+: #9 vs. #2.  However, the Tides’ #17 rated offense will have its way with the Aggies #48 defense.  I think ‘Bama covers the spread and then some, winning by two TDs.

#7 MSU @ #12 TTUN.  In terms of S&P+, their strength of schedule is relatively even, and TTUN has the #46 offense matching up with MSU’s #47 defense. The story here is the difference between Sparty’s #37 offense versus TTUN’s #1 rated defense.  Sadly, I don’t see Dantonio and company getting it done in Ann Arbor, unless the whole Magic Johnson statue-defacing thing really flips the script. I’m taking Harbaugh, and I hate myself for doing it.

 #6 LSU vs.  #8 UF.  This is the most interesting matchup from a statistical standpoint.  LSU has an advantage in F/+, but that is mostly due to its FEI which still has a small preseason bias. UF was a dumpster fire coming into the season, so they were held back by the computers initially. As mentioned earlier, they’ve moved up over 30 spots mostly in the past three weeks.  LSU has remained within +/- three spots in F/+ all season.  Looking only at S&P+ (which has zero preseason bias now), LSU has a marginally better offense than UF, but the Gators defense is markedly better than the Tigers.  UF also has the stronger schedule.  The game is in Death Valley at night, which matters, but defense wins championship.  Florida wins a low-scoring game by three or four points.

I’m predicting four upsets (according to the AP Poll) this week.  I hope none of you place any bets based on that.  As always I welcome your thoughts, comments, suggestions, ultimatums, and gifs.  Go Bucks! Beat #StillNotaRival!

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