Week Five F+ Ratings Vs. AP Poll
Market Corrections. Some interesting data was dumped into the S&P+ computer thanks to week five’s crazy games, and the first FEI ratings of 2015 are out albeit with some residual preseason weight still affecting them. The new computer ratings were not kind to the Buckeyes. But it also proved harsh to a few other preseason favorites who remain undefeated: Baylor, MSU and TCU all dropped four or more places in F/+ rating despite winning last weekend. Ole Miss, UGA and UCLA also saw big drops this week with their losses. I’m sure we’ll see some more changes in the coming weeks.
Observations from Week Five’s data
1) Consistency is damn important. ‘Bama is still top dog in both S&P+ and FEI, thanks to their beat down of the Dawgs. The Tide’s consistent offensive production has them out in front of everyone statistically. Clemson jumped one spot to a solid #2 in F/+, 14% behind the Tide and 5% above #3 Stanford. The Cardinal made the biggest gain in the Top 5 of F/+, climbing eight spots from #11. LSU, OU and USC round out the top 6 in F/+ and are all within a percentage point of Stanford. #3-6 are very tight.
Now for the bad stuff. TTUN has had one of its most impressive five-game stretches in awhile, and it has climbed from a Week One F/+ rating of 34th all the way to #7. Meanwhile tOSU dropped 11 spots this week in F/+ rating to #13. Clearly, turnovers and third down conversion rate are negatively impacting the Buckeye’s efficiency resulting in a drop in S&P+ to 52nd for Offense. The defense however looks solid at #20. S&P+ Strength of Schedule for tOSU has fallen to 100th, which hurts as well.
2) AP Top 25 Matchups. I was 3-2 in my picks last week: Clemson, ‘Bama, Miss St., OU, & Ole Miss. I freely admit, I picked Miss St outside of the stats because I hate A&M. Using the F/+ ratings, I would have been 4-1. Hat’s off to anyone who predicted the UF beatdown on Ole Miss.
This weekend there are only two matchups between current AP Top 25 teams: #13 Northwestern at #18 TTUN; and #23 Cal at #5 Utah. Based on S&P+ ratings and home field advantages, I’m predicting (not who I’m cheering for) wins for TTUN and the Utes. TTUN has the weaker schedule so far, but they have the 53rd offense and 3rd rated defense. The Wildcats are 100th for offense and 6th for defense. Utah has even larger advantages over Cal statistically as well as home field advantage.
I’m going out on a limb and picking three upsets in other AP Top 25 games this week: KSU beats #2 TCU in a close one in Manhattan; this will be the best defense TCU has seen so far. #21 Ok State, after two close wins, gets tripped up in Morgantown by a statistically better Mountaineer team. Navy sails into South Bend and catches the #15 Irish flatfooted after an emotional loss to Clemson. (Can’t support that one with stats, just my love for the Mids. A man’s gotta have goals.)
3) Biggest Losers. I’m going with trends rather than single weeks this time. Since Week One, four preseason Top 25 teams have dropped 40 or more places in F/+ rating: Oregon (3rd to 44th in F/+), Auburn (13th to 53rd), Mizzou (22nd to 70th) and Arizona (31st to 75th). Apparently Oregon’s two ‘good’ losses to ranked teams is still garnering them enough AP votes to appear at #26 in this week’s poll. Mizzou’s 48-place drop in F/+ is the largest in FBS and puts it behind NIU (63rd) and Va Tech (#52), despite them both being 2-3.
4) Biggest Winners. Again, I’m just looking at movement from Weeks One to Five. In the AP Top 25 this week are nine teams (36%) that were not preseason Top 25: Utah, A&M, TTUN, UF, Northwestern, Ok St., Iowa, Cal and Toledo. Although six of those teams received votes in the preseason AP Poll, their combined total of 150 votes would have put them at #25 ahead of Tenn. Six of those teams (Utah, TTUN, UF, Northwestern, Iowa and Toledo) moved up 20 places or more in F/+ ratings from Week One, with Northwestern enjoying the largest leap: 41 spots from 58th to 17thover five games. That is also the largest change in all of FBS. Amazingly, Duke is 14th for F/+ but has not broken the AP Top 25, while Cal is 51st in F/+ but is enjoying an AP #23 ranking. I predict Cal drops out of the AP Poll after playing Utah this week. Duke is at Army (which BTW played a great game against PSU last week), so I expect the Blue Devils to get a few more AP votes next week and possibly break into the Top 25.
5) General Impressions. Preseason voter polls are meaningless. One third of the teams in the AP Top 25 this week were not ranked preseason. The preseason F/+ ratings only got about 75% of the teams right in the Top 25; but it was way off on their position in that group. Only two of the teams in the preseason Top 10 for F/+ are still there: ‘Bama and LSU; seven are still in the Top 25; and then there’s Oregon. The current teams in the Top 25 for F/+ began in Week One somewhere between #1 and #60; that tells me the data is beginning to normalize itself and some of the movement should settle down. But, what do I know?
6) Head Scratchers. ‘Bama’s 3rd Down Conversion Rate through five games (.319) is worse than the Buckeyes (.348), if you can believe that, and Bama has had three more 3rd down attempts; yet Bama is significantly higher than tOSU in Offensive S&P+. One possible reason is Red Zone Scoring: The Tide is 19 of 21 with 16 TDs and tOSU is 12 of 16 with only 6 TDs. ‘Bama is also +1 in Turnover Margin, while tOSU is -4.
Ga Tech, Louisville, Tenn and Ark are all 2-3, yet their F/+ ratings are all in the Top 30 in FBS, ahead of undefeated Ok State, Temple, Houston, Cal, and Memphis.
Memphis (5-0) is the lowest rated undefeated team at 60th for F/+, behind 20 teams with two or more losses.
Central Florida (0-5) is the highest-rated, winless team at 103rd in F/+ ahead of three 3-win teams, eight 2-win teams, and ten 1-win teams. One more loss and they might break into the top 100. Go Knights!
