Observations from Week Six’s data

1) I Walk Alone.  The Tigers have established themselves as the #1 team in both components of F/+ ratings (S&P+ and FEI). They are 8% ahead of ‘Bama, which slid eight percentage points from last week despite beating A&M.  Right behind ‘Bama are Baylor and TTUN (let the teeth gnashing and hatred of the computers begin) at 50% F/+.  OU, tOSU, Utah and LSU are basically in a tie for 5th in F/+ at 43%, with ND and Stanford rounding out the Top 10.  For those wondering, these models reward teams more for playing well against quality opponents (win or lose) than they penalize them for losing to lesser opponents.  Thus teams like USC and TTUN continue to hang around despite having more than one loss.  Over time, it all works out.

2) Free Falling.  I’m looking at single week movements this time, because there are some big ones. USC played a close game with the Irish, and fell eight places with the loss, to #15 in F/+. The Trojans aren’t even sniffing an AP vote, but their computer rating is still Top 25. I can’t answer why, other than their early wins. UCLA dropped 20 spots following their blowout loss to Stanford, landing at #37 for F/+, but they’re still receiving Top 25 votes.  BYU fell from #30 to #43, despite beating the Bearcats; they too are still garnering AP votes.  Northwestern tumbled 29 places to #47 in F/+.  Scoring only 10 points in back-to-back blowout losses hurts no matter who you play.  By comparison though, Ole Miss only fell six places, apparently because they were able to score some points in their two losses, and they beat ‘Bama.  Among other teams receiving Top 25 votes, but falling dramatically in F/+ were Texas Tech (12 spots to #49) and ASU (34 spots to #60).  ASU wins the award for being the lowest ranked team in F/+ and only 3-loss team to still get AP Top 25 votes.

3) Movin’ on Up.  Several teams moved up in the F/+ ratings by double digits, as mentioned above.  Baylor jumped 10 spots to #3, just one spot below their AP rank.  OU climbed 12 spots to #5, which is well above their AP #17 rank.  Iowa moved to #11, 13 places above last week, which is within one of their #12 AP spot.  Cal leapt 21 places and landed at #17 in F/+, just three above their AP rank.  Memphis made the second largest gain, 30 spots, with its win over Ole Miss reaching #26, but that is still eight places lower than the AP voters ranked the Tigers.  Miss St jumped its way back into the F/+ Top 30 from 39 to 28, very close to where the voters put them at #26.  Rounding out the Top 30 is Utah State, who defeated BSU, and catapulted 31 spots in F/+ from their previous #61; they also received some AP votes putting them at #36.

4) I’m Watching You.  Navy and WKU finally broke into the F/+ Top 25. Navy moved up to #20, and the Midshipmen remain the highest rated non-P5 team for F/+ but received no AP votes this week. The Hill Toppers climbed another four spots this week and are now #25; WKU received enough AP votes to land at #32 this week.  Utah State made a big move in the MWC, but their two losses will likely hold them back from an AP Top 25 ranking for now. The AAC appears to be the cream of the Group of Five: a phoenix rising from the ashes of the Big East.  Memphis, Houston and Temple are all 6-0 (3-0 in conf) with Navy at 5-1 (3-0 in conf).  November will be the separation month for the AAC:  Nov 7 (Navy @ Mem), Nov 14 (UH vs. Mem), Nov 21 (Mem @ Temple) , and Nov 27 (UH vs. Navy).  Memphis has the toughest road, facing all of the other three. UH gets Navy and Memphis at home, and Memphis after Navy. Temple also gets Memphis at home, but has the lowest F/+ rating for now. I’m leaning toward Houston to win it all based on schedule, as much as it pains me. I would love nothing more than to have to pack my bags and dump a ton of money to watch Navy play in a New Year’s Day bowl game.

5) AP Top 25 Matchups.  I went 2-2 with my predictions last week – Northwestern, ‘Bama, TTUN and LSU - (plus partial credit for Stanford), which brings me to 7.5-4 on the season. I would have done better if TTUN won, but I can’t say I’m ‘upset’ by the result – I’ll happily take that loss. For the record, they did win the game for 59 minutes 50 seconds: too bad it's a 60 minute game. (Props to IGNGF3, who picked 3 out of 4.)

This week features only one AP Top 25 matchup: Texas A&M @ Ole Miss. Their F/+ ratings are very close (A&M holds a three percent advantage). The Aggies have the edge in FEI and Ole Miss shows the better S&P+ rating. Diving further into the S&P+ numbers, the Rebels and Aggies match up almost identically with respect to offense versus defense, with neither holding a clear advantage. I’m taking Ole Miss at home, but this is a coin toss. I think the Rebels have more to prove after losing badly to Memphis.

I welcome your constructive comments and input. If you just want to complain about computers, go ahead and rant. If you’re asking, “How the F$%# can TTUN possibly be ranked #4 in any system?”, the answer simply is they came within a TD of beating an undefeated/ranked Utah team, they beat 2-loss BYU (which is receiving AP votes) 31-0, they beat 2-loss Northwestern (which has two wins over ranked teams) 38-0, and they only lost to ranked and undefeated MSU by 4 points. TTUN has performed very well against better competition than most other teams have played.  In the end, that just helps the Buckeyes’ Strength of Schedule, so it’s a good thing.  Go Bucks! Beat Rutgers!

Previous weeks:  Week 1  Week 2  Week 3  Week 4  Week 5  Week 6