The Song Remains the Same. The F/+ Top 10 saw very little movement this week in relative position despite some huge offensive performances. The most notable change was USC and Utah essentially swapping positions after the Trojans’ beat down of the Utes. The largest changes in this week’s computer ratings came from teams in the 10-30 range, but most of those teams remain outside the AP Top 25.
Observations from Week Six’s data
1) The Eye of the Tiger. The most significant effect of Clemson taking the U out behind the woodshed on Saturday, was the Tigers F/+ rating jumping nine percentage points to 70%. To put this in perspective, the Buckeyes’ F/+ rating at the end of last season was 69.6%. Clemson holds the number one spot in both S&P+ and FEI ratings by a significant margin. They are 17% ahead of #2, TTUN, which moved up three percentage points after crushing ‘the bye’ this week. ‘Bama slid one place to #3 with a 1% drop in F/+ after sneaking by the Vols. The Buckeyes’ F/+ rating improved by three percentage points to 46.8%, but they ‘dropped’ two places to #8. In reality, they are essentially in a five-way tie for #4: LSU, Baylor, ND, OU and tOSU are within 1% of each other in F/+. Stanford and USC round out the F/+ Top 10.
Of note: Among the Top 10 teams in F/+, Baylor, Stanford and USC are not in the Top 10 in both FEI and S&P+. In breaking down S&P+, only two teams are rated in the Top 15 in both offense and defense: Clemson (#11 offense, #4 defense) and tOSU (#13 offense, #11 defense). Compared to TTUN (#47 offense, #1 defense), Baylor (#1 offense, #56 defense), or ‘Bama (#41 offense, #5 defense), the Buckeyes and Tigers are the most balanced teams according S&P+. At the end of last season, only OSU and ‘Bama were that balanced on offense and defense.
2) Another One Bites the Dust. Utah dropped 10 spots in the AP to #13 and 7 spots in F/+ to #14 following their loss to USC. Utah still has a trip to UW and UCLA at home, so there’s potential for them drop further. Likewise, Texas A&M lost 11 spots in the AP Poll and eight in F/+ landing at #26 in both. The Aggies have a snooze-fest for the next four weeks (SCar, Auburn, W. Car, & Vandy) before they finish the season in Death Valley. I imagine they’ll hang around a bit before taking a third loss and disappearing from the rankings again. Cal saw the largest drop of the week, falling 14 places in the AP and 18 places in F/+; they are currently ranked #34 and #35 respectively.
3) Higher Ground. Wisconsin climbed 10 spots and back into the F/+ Top 25 and garnered enough AP votes to be #31. With games against Rutgers, MD, Northwestern and Minny remaining, the Badgers could claw their way back into the AP Top 25 by season’s end. Appalachian St. (obligatory pause to remember 2007) makes its first appearance in the AP Poll at #33 and the F/+ Top 30 at #28. How I would love to see the Mountaineers meet TTUN in a bowl game. UCLA’s stock rose considerably after dismantling Cal (I did not see that coming), jumping 17 spots in F/+ to #20 just four places above their AP #24 spot. The Bruins finish the season @ Utah and @ USC, so there is potential for them to drop.
4) Every Breath You Take. The AAC and MAC have six teams in the Top 35 in F/+ and four teams currently in the AP Top 25: those four are currently undefeated. Although highly unlikely, but certainly possible, an undefeated Toledo, Temple, Houston or Memphis could be bowling on New Year’s Day. If the PAC 12 and SEC cannibalize themselves and end up with two-loss champions, might an undefeated Group of Five team have a shot at the CFP? I would pay good money to see that happen, and then laugh while large portions of the South recreate scenes from Sherman’s march to the sea.
5) AP Top 25 Matchups. My lone ‘bold’ prediction last week came thru – Ole Miss – which brings me to 9-4 on the season. (I'm giving myself full credit for the Stanford pick, despite being late.)
Again there is only one AP Top 25 matchup this week: #9 ND at #21 Temple. Just going by the numbers, ND is the favorite in this game. The Irish have the #6 offense in S&P+ facing the Owls’ #6 defense, which matches up well. However, ND’s #37 S&P+ defense will likely be the best that Temple’s #85 offense has faced. Temple has forced 12 INTs so far this year, but I think the Irish will run the ball with CJ Procise and win this game.
Bonus Upset Picks: WVU (UNR) upsets TCU (#5). Their S&P+ numbers are very close, and whereas TCU has the advantage in offensive rating, WVU has the better defense. WVU is better than their 3-3 record would suggest.
UNC (#27) upsets Pitt (#23). UNC is rated higher than Pitt in both S&P+ and FEI. According to S&P+, UNC’s offense should match up well with Pitt’s defense, giving them a slight edge.
Previous weeks: Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7
