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Week 12 F/+ Ratings Vs. CFP & AP Polls

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
November 24, 2015 at 10:41pm
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Whelp. Last weekend sucked. Of the Top 10 teams in F/+ going into the weekend, only tOSU and USC lost. Oddly enough, despite an anemic offensive showing, the Buckeyes only lost 2% in F/+ and dropped just one spot in the ratings this week. Thankfully, ND’s poor performance against BC caused them to slip with the Buckeyes, and only TTUN managed to elevate their F/+.  USC, however, by losing to Oregon lost 8% in F/+ and tumbled 12 places to #21. No music videos this week; I just didn’t have it in me after the loss. Hopefully there will be cause for celebration after this weekend.

Observations from Week 12’s data

1) Top 10. ‘Bama and Clemson both lost percentage points but remained #1 and #2 in F/+ ratings. Clemson is now 4% behind the Tide in F/+, but retained #1 in S&P+. Bama remains #1 in FEI.  OU solidified its #3 position in F/+ ratings at 51.9%, and the Sooners are #4 in both FEI and S&P+ (the two components of F/+).  TTUN, Notre Dame and tOSU are all within 1% of each other in 4th through 6th place.  Baylor is #7, but more than 1% behind the Buckeyes, followed by Navy, Stanford and MSU tightly clustered at #8-10.  Clemson, OU and FSU are the only teams with S&P+ ratings in the Top 20 for both Offense and Defense. tOSU and Ole Miss are the only other teams with S&P+ Offense and Defense ratings in the Top 25. My CFP Final four prediction is now: Clemson, ‘Bama, MSU and OU.

2) Moving down. The rest of the Top 25 in F/+ was relatively stable this week. USC suffered the single largest drop, falling from #9 to #21 in F/+ after losing to the Ducks. LSU slipped three places to #15, and OK State and Utah both lost four spots after losses, putting them at #20 and #23 respectively.  UNC’s close win over Va Tech hurt their F/+ percentile resulting in a four spot slip as well; the Tar Heels are now #22 as they head into a rivalry game with The Wolfpack which surprisingly has climbed to #39 in F/+.

3) Moving up. Only a few teams made notable gains this week in the Top 25 F/+ ratings. Miss St., TCU (due to its close loss against OU), and Toledo all climbed seven spots from last week and now sit at #14, #17 and #19 respectively.  MSU moved up five spots to #10 with their victory in the Shoe, and The Razorbacks’ close, high-scoring loss to Miss St. boosted their F/+ four places to #18. Somehow, Arkansas is the best 5-loss team in FBS. They still suck.

4) Group of Five. There’s no such thing as unicorns apparently. Houston, the sole undefeated Group of Five team going into last weekend, lost to UConn; but the Cougs still have a shot at the AAC championship if they can beat Navy this Friday. The loss dropped Houston 14 places to #42 in F/+. Meanwhile, Navy rolled to another big win this time over Tulsa, climbing two more places to #8. The Midshipmen remain the highest G-5 team in F/+ and the AP Poll. Not to be forgotten, Toledo revived their bid for a New Year’s Six bowl game by absolutely thumping BGSU. The Rockets returned to the AP rankings at #24, climbed to # 19 in F/+ and reappeared in the CFP rankings at #24.  Temple also clawed its way back to #25 in the CFP rankings but still sits at #36 in F/+.

5) CFP Top 25. Last week my picks went 2-3 (Wisconsin, tOSU, Baylor, OU, USC).  That puts me at 17-10 for the season.  Good thing I never bought that ticket to Vegas.  Thanksgiving weekend is absolutely loaded with Top 25 action, as six pairs of teams compete for division and conference championships and a shot at the CFP and New Years Six bowl games.

#7 Baylor @ #19 TCU.  Baylor appears to be ‘plug-and-play’ at the QB position, so I don’t think that is a factor. The Bears are still #1 in S&P+ offense, and are slightly ahead of TCU in defense despite ranking #69 in that category.  Baylor is only a 1.5 point favorite according to Vegas, but that’s enough for me.

#8 tOSU @ #10 TTUN. The Game will be the fourth matchup of Top 10 F/+ teams so far this season (Wk 7 – #6 LSU vs. #8 UF; Wk 10 – #2 Bama vs. #3 LSU; Wk 11 – #6 OU vs. #10 Baylor). In all the previous matchups, the better team in F/+ won; however the teams were not as evenly matched as the Buckeyes and Wolverines are across S&P+ and FEI. TTUN is worse in S&P+ offense than MSU, WMU, & Indiana; the Buckeyes still have the #8 defense in S&P+. The challenge again for tOSU will be offensive production against the #2 defense in S&P+. If there is a weakness in the Wolverines’ defense it’s pass defense; unfortunately that seems to be the weakest part of the Buckeyes’ offense. Oddsmakers set the line at 1.5-2 points in favor of TTUN.  That’s why I’m sticking with the Buckeyes this Saturday.

#18 Ole Miss @ #21 Miss St. The Egg Bowl should be a fairly competitive game. Vegas set the line at Ole Miss -1. Ole Miss is stronger in S&P+ across offense and defense, and they are about one win short of where they should be. I’m taking Ole Miss to win and hopefully take the division title if Auburn pulls an epic upset.

#6 ND @ #9 Stanford. This is the only other game between two teams both in the F/+ and the CFP Top 10. These teams are extremely close in S&P+ across offense and defense, with ND enjoying a slight advantage in the latter. BC showed that ND’s offense can be stopped, and I expect Stanford to do the same. The game is in Palo Alto, which means the Irish will have gone coast-to-coast for back-to-back games. It’s also a night game for the Irish (7:30 EST) but an afternoon game for The Cardinal. Stanford is 10-19 all-time in this series, but they are 7-6 at home; they are 4-2 and undefeated at home since 2009, the year before Brian Kelly arrived at ND. Stanford is a 3.5 point favorite according to Vegas, and I am in agreement (even without ND’s injuries).

 #12 UF vs. #13 FSU.  Personally, from what I’ve seen, the Gators are not for real. F/+ says this is close, S&P+ says FSU is the winner, and FEI says UF is favored. Vegas is calling the Noles 2-point favorites in Gainesville. FSU is much more balanced that UF in offense and defense, so I’m sticking with FSU.

#3 OU @ #11 oSu.  The Sooners look to be peaking at the right time. They are 8th in S&P+ offense and 15th in defense. OK State has been playing above themselves for most of the season, and despite Bedlam being in Stillwater, I just don’t see the Cowpokes getting past a real defense. The bookies have the Sooners as a TD favorite, and I’m inclined to believe it may be larger than that.  If OU wins this game, I believe they are in the CFP ahead of Baylor and ahead of ND. I’ve got a feeling coach Stoops and company may make it to the Championship game.

Enjoy the games this weekend and have a great Thanksgiving.  I'm hoping for a little bit of this over the weekend.

Previous weeks:
Week 1  Week 2  Week 3  Week 4  Week 5  Week 6  Week 7  Week 8  Week 9  Week 10  Week 11

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