The Clemson Tigers have not only claimed the top spot in the F/+ ratings for the fifth consecutive week, they now also hold the #1 ranking in both the CFP Committee Poll and the AP Poll. This week provided a little separation in the pack with a few undefeated teams suffering their first losses. It also provided some great data on a few teams that hadn’t previously faced real competition...ahem…TCU and LSU. I've added the CFP Committee rankings as another comparison. In many cases, the CFP is closer to F/+ than the AP Poll. Coincidence?
Observations from Week Ten’s data
1) One is the Loneliest Number. Clemson has a chokehold on the #1 spot in both S&P+ and FEI ratings; their F/+ percentile is still a full 10 points ahead of #2 Alabama, 17 points ahead of ND, and over 20 points ahead of teams 4-7: TTUN, tOSU, OU, and LSU. Bama (58.8%) and ND (51.1%) both separated themselves a little more from the pack with their convincing wins over P-5 teams with good records. It is irritating as hell to see the Fighting Harbaugh’s so high in the F/+ ratings, but they are just one play away from being 8-1. The Game is shaping up to be another epic meeting between these two historic programs, which are within 1% in F/+ at 47.9% and 47.0%. A good showing by the Buckeyes over the next couple of weeks should boost their F/+ considerably. This would also be a great week for the Hoosiers to finally get that signature win they’ve been painfully close to all season.
Of note: Clemson, tOSU and OU are the only teams with S&P+ ratings in the Top 20 for both Offense and Defense. FSU is now the only other team with S&P+ Offense and Defense ratings in the Top 25. The next most balanced team in FBS: ‘Bama. I’m making my first CFP Final Four prediction of the year: Clemson, tOSU, ‘Bama and OU. (If Stanford wins out, they could replace OU)
2) Slip Sliding Away. We expect teams that lose to drop in rankings. So it’s no surprise to see FSU drop a spot, LSU slip four places or Baylor lose three spots. Even MSU, Ole Miss and Toledo only lost four places in the F/+ ratings. Memphis, however, took a big hit with the loss to Navy, sliding from #21 to #29. But A&M’s loss to Auburn resulted in a 15 place slide in F/+, and Duke’s meltdown against a good UNC team dropped the Blue Devils 22 spots this week. Even more interesting this week is the result of close wins against inferior opponents for Baylor, Iowa, Tennessee, Houston, Wisconsin and WSU. All six teams won but dropped between two and five places in F/+ due to poor performances allowing other teams to leap over them.
3) Anchors Aweigh. Two teams posted major gains in F/+ this week. UNC boosted their stock with a 66-31 beatdown of Duke; the Tar Heels jumped 11 places to land at #23 in F/+. That’s much closer to their #17 AP ranking than they were last week. The team with the largest jump in F/+ this week (for the second consecutive week) is Navy. The Mids rolled up Memphis 45-20 and leaped 12 places in F/+ from #24 to #12. They also earned their first AP Ranking since 2004 at #22. They’ve been on my watch list for awhile (clearly); now I think they’re on everyone’s radar.
4) Rocket Man. Last week I mentioned that the Group of Five was likely to lose an undefeated team or two – I present Toledo and Memphis. Toledo’s mental block against NIU bit them again. Memphis could not get Navy’s offense off the field (36 min TOP), and had absolutely no answer to the Triple Option (374 yds rushing between eight players). Houston remains the lone G-5 team with a perfect record. The Cougars escaped with a 3-point win over UC last Saturday. They may have been drunk on their 34-0 pounding of Vandy, or they may have just faced their first quality team.
5) Cowboy. AP Top 25 Matchups. Another 2-1 showing last week courtesy of the Oklahoma State Cowboys (Clemson, TCU and ‘Bama), putting us at 13-6 using S&P+ this season. If this continues, I may be ready to take this show to Vegas.
#3 ‘Bama @ #20 Miss St. The Tide has the #2 ranked defense in S&P+, but their offense is only #35. Miss St. is #25 in offense and is #37 in defense. The interesting point here is that Miss St is more balanced (run/pass) than LSU and is the most balanced team in that regard that ‘Bama has faced since…Ole Miss. LSU is #22 Passing S&P+, Miss St is #11, and Ole Miss is #4. Because of Dak Prescott and his ability to throw, this game should be closer than the LSU game was. The game is in Starkville, and the Tide may buy into their press clippings. I still think ‘Bama wins, but I won’t be surprised if Miss St pulls an upset. If they do, it’ll be the happiest ‘L’ I take all season.
#4 Baylor vs. #12 OU. As of Tuesday, Baylor is only a 2.5 point favorite…at home. Despite having the #1 offense by S&P+, Baylor has the #79 defense and #122 SoS. OU has the #11 offense, #20 defense and #96 SoS. Peeling the onion on their S&P+ numbers, Baylor’s #7 passing offense has to beat OU’s #8 passing defense. Meanwhile, the Bear’s #28 rushing defense and #68 passing defense have to stop the Sooners’ #44 rushing offense and #10 passing offense. I’m taking Stoops’ Sooners straight up in this game.
#16 Houston vs #25 Memphis. This is the first game between ranked Group of Five opponents this season. I’m willing to bet no one predicted that in the pre-season. The Tigers are coming off a crushing loss at home to Navy, and Houston narrowly escaped a comeback bid last week by the Bearcats. These teams’ F/+ ratings are within two points of each other; Houston has the better S&P+ defense; but Memphis has the better offense in S&P+ by far. This is a huge game for both teams, with AAC championship implications and possibly a New Year’s Day bowl game on the line. This may be the most exciting game to watch on Saturday. I’m going out on a limb and taking Memphis in this shootout.
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