The 2015 Buckeyes’ offense showed up a week too late. Although changes in the F/+ rankings this week were subtle, the notable changes in F/+ absolute percentages jump out. Although they may never meet in the CFP, the best four teams according to F/+ and S&P+ analytics are ‘Bama, Clemson, OU and tOSU. And it’s not even close. But, Sparty won, so we have to sit back this weekend and wait.
Looking at how the CFP Committee ranked teams this week, there is a clear correlation between their rankings and a combination of win-loss records, head-to-head performance and advanced stats (in that order). In several cases, where teams may have similar records, the team with a higher F/+ or S&P+ ranking broke out above competitors, unless they played head-to-head, in which case the winner got bumped up. The best examples of this are tOSU below MSU, Stanford above ND, and TCU above Baylor (Northwestern-Stanford appears to be the lone exception where HTH lost out to Strength of Record). It is also evident that TTUN, Ole Miss, Tenn, LSU and USC clearly benefit from higher F/+ ratings than teams with similar or better records like Wisc, Toledo, Memphis, UGA and BYU (IMHO, Mem & Tol unranked behind Tenn and Ole Miss is hard to justify). In the cases of Iowa and Northwestern, the CFP Committee is clearly resting on record and a couple of key wins. The Wildcats’ F/+ has them 30 spots lower than their CFP ranking and 31 below their AP ranking; Iowa is 20 places below theirs. I think that may hurt the B1G during bowl season.
(At AZNChipmunk’s request, I added last week’s F/+ percentile. I also removed the ‘Change’ columns – chart is getting too busy, and I figure you all can do the math.)
Observations from Week 12’s data
1) 25 or 6 to 4. ‘Bama and Clemson held position in F/+ ratings and percentages. OU and the Buckeyes both increased their F/+ percentages; OU solidified its #3 ranking and tOSU jumped ND and TTUN to #4. ND’s close loss to Stanford didn’t hurt their F/+ percentage, but they are now alone at #5 in F/+, but #8 in the CFP behind Stanford. The rest of the Top 10 is interesting. Ole Miss jumped five places to #6 after crushing Miss St; this coupled with their win over ‘Bama is why I believe they are #13 in the CFP. Baylor held at #7 in F/+, but the loss to TCU has them ranked #12 in the CFP. MSU inched up 3% and two places to #9 in F/+, but the head-to-head win has them above the Buckeyes in the CFP. FSU and Stanford round out the Top 10, but in reverse order from the CFP committee rankings; apparently losing to GaTech (3-9) on a blocked FG is only hurting the ‘Noles a little bit.
My CFP Final four prediction is: Clemson, ‘Bama, MSU and OU.
2) Loser. The rest of the F/+ Top 25 remained relatively stable. Miss St. suffered the largest drop, falling 11 places to #25. Ok State was next with an eight-place slide to #28, followed by TTUN slipping 5% and seven spots to #11. UF lost six places landing at #18, and Navy ended up at #12, four spots lower with the loss to Houston. What I find interesting is Utah and Oregon both won, but they lost percentage points and dropped in the F/+ rankings.
3) Shake it Up. Ole Miss, TCU and USC moved up this week, but the largest movers were Western Kentucky, up eight places to #17 (they ought to be ranked at 10-2) and UW, which jumped 12 places to #21. Arkansas may be the best 7-5 team in college football, but the Huskies are the best six-loss team…bar none. Their F/+ rating is higher than Iowa, Ok State, Oregon, Utah, Houston, Temple, and Northwestern, which are all ranked in the CFP Top 25. At least UW will get a bowl game.
4) A Horse with No Name. The committee’s take on Group of Five teams is really interesting to me. I’m not complaining that Navy and its AAC rivals Houston and Temple are ranked; but I find it interesting that WKU (10-2), Toledo (10-2) and BGSU (9-3) are getting absolutely no love. They have similar wins over middling to weak P-5 teams, but their F/+ and S&P+ ratings are much higher than Temple and Houston.
5) CFP Top 25. Last week my picks went 5-2 (Navy, Baylor, tOSU, Ole Miss, Stanford, FSU, OU). That puts me at 22-12 for the season or 64.7%. I’ll take it.
#19 Houston vs. #22 Temple. This should’ve been Navy. It’s really a pick’em looking at F/+, but overall S&P+ gives the edge clearly to the Owls. Houston’s at home, and Ward is a handful at QB. Houston has the advantage in S&P Offense, and I watched what they did to Navy’s defense (only 5 pints worse than Temple’s) last week. Vegas: Houston -6 points. I’ll take Houston for Tom Herman and to help Navy’s SoS.
#2 ‘Bama vs. #18 UF. The Tide (S&P+ #1 defense, #28 offense) should hold the Gators (#5 defenses, #58 offense) to a shutout. The only way UF scores is on defense, which is entirely possible if they shut down Henry and force Coker to throw. This is the best defense ‘Bama will face since Wisconsin. I’ll be rooting for the Gators, but my head is saying no freaking way. Vegas: ‘Bama -18 points. I think it’ll be more like ‘Bama by a TD or two.
#7 Stanford vs. #20 USC. This is a virtual home game for Stanford (Levi’s Stadium), and they should be favored. Metrics say they win, but it should be close. I hate rematches, though, and I think they left everything on the field in the win over ND last week. Vegas: Stanford -4.5 points. I say USC in overtime.
#4 Iowa vs. #5 MSU. So long as Connor Cook plays, this should be a Sparty win. They are ranked higher in S&P+ offense and defense, and there is no comparison in SoS (13th vs 104th). Unless they Sparty, of course. Vegas: MSU -3.5 points. I truly believe MSU pulls a big win here.
#1 Clemson vs. #10 UNC. I know we all want UNC to win this, and I know talking heads are saying they stand a good chance of winning, but I’m not buying it. The Tigers are very good, and very balanced: #11 A&P+ offense, #16 defense. I just can’t see UNC pulling an upset, unless Watson comes out of the game with an injury. Vegas: Clemson -5 points. I think Clemson wins by two TDs.
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