Superstition. Crank up some SRV and Double Trouble. It’s time to take a look at advanced analytics, fire up your superstitions, and get ready for CFB’s Week 12.
Although we witnessed some significant upsets last week, the result in advanced analytics was anything but chaotic. It appears the winners of those games gained much more than the losers lost, if that makes sense. Consequently the exact same teams constitute the F/+ Top 10 this week but in a slightly different order. Of those teams, only three slid from their positions, and one of those (LSU) actually won their games on Saturday. Think about that.
Observations from Week 10 data
1) Top 10. F/+ ratings and the AP poll match up fairly well this week. F/+ and the CFP Poll match exactly from #1-7. Makes you think. The most notable exceptions in F/+ are still LSU and Auburn, which remain in the Top 10 despite suffering three losses each. The AP and CFP have them ranked in the mid to high teens.
‘Bama held at #1 and increased its F/+ percentage for the third straight week; the Tide has improved by 10 percentage points over that time. At 78.3%, ‘Bama is currently 7% higher in F/+ than they finished last season after the CFP. The Buckeyes claimed the #2 spot with a 3% increase in F/+. More significantly, TTUN dropped about 6% with their loss at Iowa, pulling them down to #3. Clemson, Louisville and UW all held their spots at 4-6, despite two of those teams losing. Clemson’s F/+ percentage was so large that losing 4% didn’t move them. Similarly for UW. Louisville, however, lost a percent or two but gained ground on Clemson while widening the gap with UW. The Huskies are now clumped with Wisconsin, Auburn and LSU. Penn State held onto #10, but they’re closer to #11-14 in F/+ percentage than they are to #9. That could be important when the final rankings are determined, unless PSU finds a way to propel themselves higher.
Check out the S&P+ ratings this week, specifically the Offense, Defense and Special Teams rankings. The Buckeyes are the only team in FBS in the Top 10 of all three categories: #8, #6 and #4 respectively. That bodes well come playoffs, if they make the field of four.
2) Teams to watch. I completely missed the USC Trojans moving slowly up the ranks. Hat tip to KJonesATX for calling the upset last weekend. At 7-3, USC has quietly moved from #28 in Week 7 to, #25, #20, #17, and now sits at #11 moving up six spots this week. With only @UCLA and ND (at home) remaining on their schedule, the three-loss Trojans could capture the Pac 12 South for the second year in a row; they need CU to lose to either WSU or Utah. Don’t be surprised when this happens.
WMU & Boise State would be the most interesting race in college football, if not for OSU, Louisville, TTUN, Clemson, UW, Wisconsin and PSU. Seriously though, with Wyoming’s loss last Saturday, BSU is two wins (vs. UNLV & USAFA) and an SDSU Aztec win (vs. WY) from taking control of the MWC Mountain Division. That would put the Broncos in the MWC CCG against the Aztecs with both teams at 11-1. The winner of that game has a shot at being the Group of Five rep to the NY6. I’m not discounting WMU, but the Midwest Broncos dropped this week in F/+ even with a win; they are 6% and three places behind BSU. WMU has games remaining with Buffalo (2-8) and Toledo (8-2). Win those and they likely face the four-loss Ohio Bobcats in the MAC CCG. Despite being undefeated, WMU may end up being the second highest ranked conference champion from the Group of Five.
TCU had the week off to prepare for Ok State this Saturday. They are currently #28 in F/+, which is 11 places higher than the 8-2 Cowboys. Put the Pokes on upset alert. I’m still calling for the Horned Frogs to finish 8-4.
3) You can’t make this $#!+ up. I’m a fan of F/+ and advanced analytics in general, but this week I’ve got a bone to pick with the numbers. Notre Dame beat a much-improved but below average Army team (89th in F/+) this week and moved up 16 freaking places to #33. Meanwhile, Navy (7-2), which beat ND a week prior, defeated a capable and offensively potent #48 Tulsa (7-3) and only moved up five spots to #60. The #33 Irish (4-6) have lost to #43 Stanford, #44 Texas, #46 NC State, #60 Navy, #62 Duke, and #64 MSU: they’re all ranked lower than ND. WTF? I have absolutely no explanation for this. I’ve defended Tennessee and Ole Miss in the past, because they had some decent wins and looked good in losses to outstanding teams. But this is complete garbage. ND hasn’t looked good all season, and doesn’t have a single good win on their resume.
#FireAnalytics
AP voters have Nebraska (8-2) at #19. Their close win over Minnesota caused them to fall two more places in F/+; the Huskers are currently #45. That’s a 26-place difference in rankings. Similarly, Ok State (8-2) is ranked #39 in F/+, but #13 in the AP Poll. The disparity is even worse in the CFP Poll, which has Nebraska at #18 and oSu at #11. There will be a reckoning.
Northwestern (5-5) has worked its way to #38 in F/+. With Minnesota and Illinois left, the Wildcats stand a chance to become the fifth best win on the Buckeyes’ schedule by W-L and fourth best by F/+. Right now, I’m kind of glad PSU didn’t play the Wildcats this year.
4) CFP Predictions. What was I thinking last week when I picked Clemson? That’s what I get for waffling and not sticking to my guns.
Seriously though, the top 5 teams seem to be holding up, so try this on for size.
#1 ‘Bama vs. #4 Lousiville and #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State.
And here’s how it happens. ‘Bama wins the SEC – they’re in. Clemson wins the ACC – they’re in. Ohio State wins their next two convincingly. Wisconsin beats PSU in a sloppy, low-scoring B1G CCG, and OU wins the Big 12. The committee gives the Buckeyes the nod ahead of two CCs they beat in the regular season on the road. UW loses the apple Cup, and 2-loss WSU loses to 3-loss USC in the Pac 12 CCG. Louisville at 11-1 goes to the head of the class and backs its way into the CFP.
Week Twelve Top 25 matchups.
Another 1-1 week. I’m just glad I didn’t try to pick the Clemson or TTUN games. That makes me 23-9 on the season. I hope to improve my average this week.
Colorado (AP #12, CFP #10, F/+ #14) vs. WSU (AP #20, CFP #22, F/+ #24). This should be a damn good game in Boulder. CU is a four-point favorite in Vegas, but about a nine-point favorite in S&P+. Looking at the offensive/defensive matchups in S&P+, it looks to me like CU should be able to control this game and win.
OU (AP #8, CFP #9, F/+ #15) @. WVU (AP #10, CFP #14, F/+ #20). Vegas set the line at -3.0 in favor of OU. S&P+ shows the Sooners as just under seven-point favorites. This could get interesting. OU has the #2 offense in S&P+ but the #64 defense. The Mountaineers are #30 on offense and #37 on defense. The Sooners have the edge in special teams. I see Stoops pulling out a close win in Morgantown.
[UPDATE] I forgot UF (F/+ #29, AP #21, CFP #23) @ LSU (F/+ #9, AP #16, CFP #16). LSU is Vegas's pick at -14.5 points. S&P+ is closer to 8 points. Either way, I see LSU winning this game in Baton Rouge. The Gator's offense is bad.
Bonus pick: Oklahoma State (AP #13, CFP #11, F/+ #39) @ TCU (AP UNR, CFP UNR, F/+ #28). I’m going with the Horned Frogs and the upset. Vegas set the line at TCU -4.0 points, and S&P+ has TCU as about a three-point favorite. I’m calling for TCU by one point, maybe in overtime. Barfolomew may as well craft up the Crying Jordan-Mike Gundy mash-up now.
Go Bucks! Beat Sparty!
Go Navy! Beat East Carolina!
Previous Weeks:
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10
