Let it Rain. It took me awhile to muster up the spirit to write this week. I’ve been listening to a lot of Clapton and SRV. Not because the Buckeyes lost, but because I knew the ramifications of Penn State looking good. Suffice to say, the real rival benefited most from the ‘Blunder at Beaver’ or ‘Stumble at State College’ or whatever the hell you want to call last Saturday. So let's rip off the bandaid and get on with it.
TTUN claimed the #1 position this week in F/+ and remained #1 in S&P+. That Team’s F/+ percentage improved slightly pushing them ahead of ‘Bama, who is still #1 in FEI but #2 in F/+. Clemson held firm at #3, and the Buckeyes remain #4 just a hair above Louisville. The thing with TTUN is they are completely dominating S&P+ Defense in a scary way. It’s not even close between them and #2 Clemson, and in some cases their ratings are double the Tigers’. The same is true in many aspects when compared to 'Bama's defense.
Observations from Week 7 data
1) Top 10. F/+ now only resembles the AP poll in spots 1-6, with only tOSU and UW sitting more than one place away from the human polls. The Cardinals and Huskies traded spots for the second consecutive week at #5 and #6. Auburn and LSU climbed to #7 and #8, which are well above their AP rankings of #15 and #19. Wisconsin moved up one spot to #9, and Texas A&M slid to #10 after losing to ‘Bama. Notice I didn’t mention Ole Miss; more on them later.
PSA: For anyone who insists there’s a media bias toward the SEC or against the B1G in human polls, please stop and compare advanced analytics rankings to the AP Poll. Auburn and LSU are two of the most undervalued teams in the AP Poll, and Nebraska (F/+ 21, AP #7) is one of the most overvalued.
2) Teams to watch. Not Minnesota. I jinxed them last week, and The Gophers slid eight spots, after struggling with Rutgers. Minnesota may still be 7-2 when they face the Huskers, but I’m willing to bet they drop at least two more games.
WMU continues their pursuit of a NY6 bowl game. The Broncos moved up three spots to #16 in F/+ rating. Toledo is also moving up at 6-1 and #33 in F/+. The MAC could have an exciting finish. But they need help out in the Mountain West, because Boise State probably has the easiest road among the Group of Five.
Va Tech is now tied with LSU for the most underrated teams in the AP Poll according to F/+. The Hokies are sitting 11 spots higher in advanced analytics than in the human polls. Take a look at their remaining schedule: @ Pitt (good match-up), @ Duke (3-4), vs. GaTech (4-3) @ ND (dumpster fire), and vs. UVA. It’s entirely possible, that Va Tech will win the Coastal (they own the tiebreaker with their win over UNC) and finish 10-2.
3) Market Corrections. Ole Miss finally dropped the other shoe. The Rebels fell 11 spots to #20, and I expect they’ll hover in the bottom of the Top 25 if they’re able to win out. NC State lost badly and the bottom dropped out for them, too. The Wolfpack dropped out of the Top 40 with an 18-place tumble. Houston’s two-game skid is showing up in F/+ as well, as the Cougars have fallen 10 places to #27 in F/+.
But the biggest loser this week is Arkansas. The Hogs plummeted 27 spots in F/+ and are now ranked below ND, all three service academies and Texas Tech (#karma).
4) Way too early CFP. No changes to my CFP final four this week, but the match-ups are different. The winner of The Game vs. UW, and ‘Bama vs. Clemson.
Week eight Top 25 matchups.
Three for three this week in the Top 25 and a close miss on my upset pick of BYU. That bumps me to 18-7 on the season. There’s a little more diversity of conferences in the Top 25 match-ups this week, which is a pleasant reprieve.
UW (AP #4, F/+ #6) @ Utah (AP #17, F/+ #36). The line is set at UW -10.0 points. S&P+ has the Huskies as about a 19-point favorite. The game is in Salt Lake, but UW has yet to show any real weaknesses. In fact, they are currently the only team in FBS to rank in the Top 10 of S&P+ in both offense (#4) and defense (#9), making them the most complete team. I would take the Huskies and the points.
Nebraska (AP #7, F/+ #21) @ Wisconsin (AP #11, F/+ #9). Wisconsin is a 9-point favorite, which seems high if you’re looking at records and AP rankings. S&P+ has the spread even closer at about five points. The game is at Camp Randall, and we know all too well what that’s like at night. I’ll take Wisconsin straight up, but I’m not giving the points.
Clemson (AP #3, F/+ #3) @ FSU (AP #12, F/+ #19). Vegas has the line at -4.5 points in favor of the Tigers, which is almost exactly what S&P+ predicts. Although Clemson would still control their own destiny in the ACC with a loss to the ‘Noles, this game could have larger implications on the CFP landscape: Clemson is the sole remaining undefeated team in the ACC. I’ll take Clemson, but I wouldn’t be shocked if FSU pulls an upset.
Enjoy your weekend. Go Bucks! Beat Northwestern!
Previous Weeks:
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7
