Magic Carpet Ride. What a difference a year makes. This time last season, the Buckeyes had just won their fifth straight game, surviving a 34-27 scare at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. That week tOSU dropped to #13 with a 34.1% F/+ rating after starting the season #1 with a 69.4% rating.
Fast forward to 2016, the Year of the Wolf. The Buckeyes have won four games and just blanked Rutgers to the tune of 58-0. They were a preseason #12 at 40.7% and have quickly ascended to #2 with an F/+ rating of 60.8%. According to Football Study Hall’s breakdown of the Buckeyes' S&P+ numbers, tOSU has a 66.6% chance of finishing 11-1 or better, and a 26% chance of finishing 12-0 (Shoutout to Smith288 for the link). Moreover, production on this team is incredibly balanced and efficient. Five Buckeyes are averaging over 5.0 yards per carry rushing (Weber-7.3, Barrett-5.2, Samuel-8.0, McCall-7.2 & Wilson-6.7); three Buckeyes have 10 or more receptions and they have better than a 70% catch rate (Samuel-95.8%, Wilson-80% & Brown-71.4%), and five Buckeyes are in double digits for tackles (McMillan-18.0, Hooker-16.5, Worley-15.0, Baker-11.5 & Webb-11.5). Only one of the players I mentioned is a Senior.
This week marks the last week of pre-season bias in the FEI and S&P+ advanced analytics that make up the F/+ Ratings. Let me hear ya say, “Hey Now.”
Observations from Week 5 data
1) Top 10. The Top 5 has begun to stabilize and closely matches the AP poll, with no significant movement in the rankings this week. That being said, tOSU, TTUN, and UW continued to improve their F/+ percentages for the fifth straight week. The Buckeyes are within striking distance of ‘Bama (only 6.5% behind in F/+), and could catch the Tide next week. They widened their lead in S&P+, and they closed the gap slightly in FEI. It's also significant to note that the Buckeyes are the only team currently ranked in the S&P+ Top 10 for Offense, Defense and Special Teams. The UW Huskies made a grand entrance into the Top 10, jumping 15 spots to #6. Ole Miss and aTm traded spots, and LSU climbed two places to rejoin the Top 10 at #9. FSU, despite a last second loss, held its position at #10. Don’t ask me, I just read what’s on the teleprompter.
In terms of raw F/+ percentages, four teams have clearly separated themselves from the pack: ‘Bama, tOSU, Clemson and TTUN. The next grouping consists of Lamar Jackson, UW, Ole Miss, aTm and LSU. FSU may be #10, but their F/+ is very close to the teams right behind them: Miami, Houston, Wisconsin, Auburn and Tennessee. I won’t be surprised if the Noles drop further next week.
2) All These Things I’ve Done. There was some more big movement this week especially for previously undervalued teams that find themselves undefeated five weeks into the season. UW thrashed Stanford, and climbed 15 spots. This is diminished slightly considering they were picked #13 in preseason and dropped as far as #21 a couple weeks ago. USC picked up a big win over ASU and climbed 11 places, and UNC shot up 12 spots with its close win over FSU. The biggest movers however were Western Michigan (up 19 to #29), Colorado (up 19 to #31) and Maryland (up 18 to #33). The Terps move bodes well for the Buckeyes strength of schedule, making them one of four future B1G opponents currently in the F/+ top 40. The Hoosiers replace MSU, which fell out this week).
3) Falling Down. Stanford tumbled with their loss to UW, falling 13 places to #19; the Cardinal has lost 12% from their preseason F/+ rating. Utah also took a hit after a loss and dropped 11 places to #36. Arkansas won, but their lackluster performances early in the season continue to hold the Hogs back, and they fell again. Bert's Boys lost 11 spots, fell from the Top 40 and sit at #41. No one has fallen faster than Notre Dame and MSU. Both teams dropped from the Top 40 this week and sit at #43 and #44 respectively.
4) Way too early CFP prediction. Just looking at the top four, undefeated teams leading a Power Five conference, the final four looks like ‘Bama, tOSU, Clemson and UW. TTUN and Louisville have strong cases, but I just don’t see a way the committee sends a one-loss team that doesn’t win its CCG. The Buckeyes were the test case last year, and it didn’t happen. I’m betting that’s the case again this season.
Top 25 Match-ups
WOW! Maybe Vegas knows something about setting the line after all. They were four for four picking winners ‘straight up’ last week, including picking UW, and they nailed the Tennessee line. I went three for four, only missing on the Stanford-UW game. Seriously, I did not see that beat-down coming. For those keeping track at home, I’m 9-4 on the season. (I’m not counting the emotional pick of Navy vs. Air Force. My thread; my rules.)
Week six Top 25 matchups.
Slim pickings this week, unless you’re an SEC or ACC fan (getout.gif).
Tennessee (AP #9, F/+ #15) @ aTm (AP #8, F/+ #8). The Vegas line is A&M -6.5 points. Other than tOSU, only one FBS team is currently in the S&P+ Top 25 for Offense, Defense and Special Teams: Texas A&M. They’ve also improved from their preseason F/+ by 16.9%; the Vols have dropped 9.2%. I’m going with the Aggies at home.
Va Tech (AP #25, F/+ #23) @ UNC (AP #17, F/+ #26). Vegas says UNC -2.5 points. I’m not sure why they set it there. UNC has a 1-point win over Pitt, wins over Illinois and James Madison (FCS), and a 54-yard FG buzzer-beater over a suspect FSU team. They also lost in the opener to UGA. Va Tech looked very good against Tenn, beat Liberty (FCS), blanked BC (49-0) and destroyed ECU (54-17). And the Hokies have an extra week to prepare for this game. I’m also looking at the Hokies’ S&P+ ratings on defense: #2 Passing Defense, #4 on Passing Downs, #5 Havoc rate (sack, INT, break-up success against the pass), #17 Front 7 Havoc Rate, and #8 DB Havoc rate. TL/DR – the Hokies are dominant against the pass. That matches up extremely well with UNC’s pass-oriented offense. I’m high on the Hokies in this game.
Alabama (AP #1, F/+ #1) @ Arkansas (AP #16, F/+ #41). Vegas has the Tide -14.0; I’d say that’s about right. Bert’s not gonna know what hit him. I don’t believe Bama’s as good as their ranking (they’ve slipped a bit from their preseason high), but the Hogs are nowhere near the #16 team in the country. Just using S&P+ Margin (essentially a predicted score margin), the Tide are 17.2 points better than Arkansas. ‘Bama by at least two TDs.
FSU (AP #23, F/+ #10) @ Miami (AP #10, F/+ #11). Everyone’s down on the ‘Noles after two losses. I get it. But their stats aren’t as bad as their record. Vegas has Miami -3.0, and S&P+ has the two instate rivals within a point, advantage FSU. However, Miami has been on an upward trajectory (+22.5 % in F/+ from preseason) while FSU has been slipping (-6.6%). I think Mark Richt gets a signature win for his alma mater, and the Miami Hype Machine really kicks into high gear.
Bonus picks: these teams are in the F/+ Top 25 but aren’t both AP Top 25.
Florida (AP #18, F/+ #24) vs. LSU (AP #28, F/+ #9). I honestly don’t understand why the AP voters have the Gators so high after the anemic offensive performance they put on last week against Vandy. I think the advanced analytics are right on this, and the Tigers win another one with Coach O at the helm. (Full disclosure – I think the Tigers would win with Coach Miles on the sideline too.) I can’t find a line on the game, but S&P+ has them about 1 point apart in favor of UF. Two of UF’s points are from their special team rating (#4). I don’t think that will be enough to beat LSU.
Washington (AP #5, F/+ #6) @ Oregon (AP UNR, F/+ #21). This is one of the oldest and most played rivalries in CFB, dating back to 1900. “The Cascade Clash” has historically been dominated by the Huskies (58-45-5), however the Ducks haven’t lost this game since 2003 and haven’t lost it at home since 2002. The line from Vegas is UW -9.0, and S&P+ is right there with the bookies. Huskies roll and continue their run for the PAC 12 North.
UPDATE: Highlighted the winners of this week's Top 25 matchups. F/+ was 100%.
