Welcome to the first of edition of the American (F/+) Top 40 for the 2016 season. I’m your host, NavyBuckeye91. I won’t be counting them down, but I will be giving some hot takes as we go through the season looking at Football Outsiders’ F/+ Ratings each week, and comparing them to the ‘Arbitrary Poll’, otherwise known as the AP rankings, and the CFP rankings when they hit the street.
For those who are new to this, F/+ is an advanced analytics rating of each FBS team. It combines two separate indices created by really smart guys, who understand football and math: Bill Connelly’s S&P+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI. If you don’t like advanced stats, or you’re unwilling to believe that a team which lost head-to-head or has multiple losses can be good actually, than this probably isn’t your thing. I like it, because these guys look at every snap, down-and-distance, etc., and ignore garbage time and clock kills at the end of halves. I also really appreciate them because of this:
A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
Lastly, the first 3-6 weeks of F/+ ratings are only slightly better than the AP Poll. They use a lot of preseason data (assumptions), and try to avoid big shifts by only adding data a week at a time. The preseason bias will be gone by week 6, and it’s all in-season stats after that. So without further ado, here are the ratings and my thoughts.
Observations from Week 1’s data
1) Top 10. Not a whole lot to say after week one’s games, except thank God we have college football again. The Top 10 remained largely unchanged from the preseason F/+ ratings. FSU and Ole Miss swapped spots, Stanford and tOSU moved up 3 spots, Tennessee dropped one place with an ugly win, and surprisingly UGA dropped five places despite beating UNC. At least we can say there’s no SEC bias. For those who are disappointed that Ole Miss, USC, Tennessee and ND didn’t drop farther, just wait. After the preseason bias drops out, they’ll drop like a rock if they continue to lose/under-perform.
2) Moving down. The rest of the Top 25 in F/+ was relatively stable this week. As mentioned above, UGA dropped 5 spots with a win. USC also fell 5 places after getting housed by ‘Bama. The single biggest drop of the weekend was Mizzou, who plummeted 12 spots from #41 to #53, after losing to WVU. The Tigers hung with the ‘Neers statistically, but they just couldn’t get it done on third (and fourth) down, which likely killed them in efficiency index.
3) Moving up. In the F/+ Top 25, several teams moved up one or two spots. The biggest movers were Stanford (+3), tOSU (+3), TTUN (+3), and Louisville (+4). Houston made the single biggest jump in FBS with their win over OU. The Cougs moved up 7 spots to #30. Unfortunately, Houston’s schedule is such that it will be hard for them to move up significantly until closer to the end of the season.
4) F/+ vs. AP disparities. Wisconsin and Texas won against supposedly quality teams. The AP voters rewarded them big time, like jumping 20+ rankings big time. Here’s another reason I like the F/+ system; Bucky only moved up one spot and Texas held its position. No big, knee-jerk reaction because they beat a team that was ranked at the time, but who might actually be garbage. If LSU and ND keep winning and turn out to be good, Wisconsin and Texas will continue to move up later in the season. But for now, F/+ says “slow down.” Of course the converse is true as well, and highly ranked teams in F/+ barely fell despite losing. Outside of those two, Houston, Iowa, Oregon and LSU are probably the most out-of-whack when you compare their F/+ to the AP rankings. F/+ has Houston and Iowa well below their AP ranks, and it has Oregon and LSU well above. Something to watch as the season progresses.
Top 25 Match-ups
It’s week two, which blows because not one of the Top 25 is playing a ranked team this week. So unless you’re really pumped for Houston vs. FCS Lamar, FSU vs FCS Charleston Southern, or LSU vs. FCS Jacksonville St., I’ll recommend a couple of games to keep an eye on.
TCU vs. Ark. Both teams looked bad in their openers. Although the Hogs aren’t ranked in the AP Poll, and TCU sits at #15, they’re within four spots and 6% in absolute F/+ rating. Arkansas holds a very slight advantage, but the game is at TCU. I’m going with the Horned Frogs, but this could be a close one.
Va Tech vs. Tenn. Neutral site game at a racetrack. Why not? Tennessee looked ugly versus App State, and Va Tech looked serviceable against Liberty. In terms of F/+ these teams are separated by 19 spots. I think everyone would agree UT is a little too high, so I expect this to be a good game. If Bud Foster’s defense plays like their capable of, Tennessee may not score.
Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed it. I tried to keep this one brief, because there just aren’t enough stats to make the ratings all that believable, yet. As always I welcome your comments and recommendations.
