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2016 Week Four F/+ Ratings vs. AP Poll

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
September 27, 2016 at 12:09pm
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2016 Week Four F/+ Ratings vs. AP Poll

The Boys are Back in Town. Some music to set the tone for this week’s installment. With four weeks of data in the books, S&P+ is now 66.6% 2016 data and 33.3% preseason estimates. I also need to add a correction: FEI still has some preseason bias in it. According to Football Insiders it is still using 43% preseason rankings. Only a couple more weeks of that garbage remain. Even with preseason bias, the over/under-performance by several teams so far this season has given us our first week of mayhem. There are double-digit movements across the F/+ rankings.

Check out the S&P+ numbers this week. #1 is jaw-dropping.

Observations from Week 4 data

1) Top 10. Nine of 10 teams are now within +/-3 places in F/+ as their AP rankings. Ole Miss (begin SEC conspiracy rants) is the lone exception. There was some minor shuffling at the top as the Buckeyes swapped places with Clemson, TTUN climbed three places to #4, Stanford and Louisville swapped, and FSU slipped a spot to #10. More significantly, Texas A&M and Houston made huge corrections this week and appear in the Top 10 for the first time this season. Summlin’s Aggies spanked ‘Bert’s Boars’ and jumped eight places in F/+ to #7. Likewise, F/+ analytics finally caught up with Houston’s big wins and prolific offense; the Cougars shot up 9.5% points and 11 places landing at #9. Ole Miss (continue SEC bias rants) destroyed UGA and remained at #8. I know this chaps a lot of B1G fans’ rear ends, but here’s the thing. I’m hard pressed to find a lower ranked team that I’m absolutely convinced would beat the Rebels if they played this weekend. Very few teams have proven they can consistently score as many points against decent opponents as Ole Miss. So you can complain about it, or you can accept the fact that statistically the Rebels are good…actually.

Last week I pointed out raw F/+ percentages as a better indicator of performance than ranking. For the fourth week, the Buckeye’s F/+ percentage improved; tOSU didn’t even play, and they increase F/+ 6%. That’s the effect of preseason bias disappearing. The Buckeyes have improved a total of 18 percentage points since the preseason, and ‘Bama has dropped seven. The titans of college football are only separated by seven points this week. They play analogous teams this week (Rutgers and UK), so unless something truly strange happens I don’t expect much to change. The table below tracks the progression of this week’s Top 10.

Team Pre Week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 total Change
F/+ Precentage Progression BY Week
'Bama 72.1% 74.1% 74.7% 62.8% 65.7% - 6.4
OSU 40.7% 42.9% 44.8% 52.9% 58.4% + 17.7
Clemson 61.2% 61.2% 56.9% 54.8% 56.4% - 4.8
TTUN 39.1% 40.9% 43.5% 44.6% 53.0% + 13.9
Louisville 35.8% 37.8% 38.6% 46.5% 52.8% + 17.0
Stanford 42.1% 46.2% 47.3% 47.1% 49.0% + 6.8
Texas A&M 28.9% 29.8% 31.2% 34.6% 46.2% + 17.3
Ole Miss 46.8% 47.1% 48.1% 43.1% 46.0% - 0.8
Houston 16.2% 20.3% 23.2% 31.4% 40.0% + 23.8
Florida State 45.2% 48.1% 50.8% 42.4% 39.5% - 5.7

 
Of the teams in the current F/+ Top 10, none have improved more than Houston (+ 23.8%) from their preseason rating. OSU is second at + 17.7%

2) Moving up. This was the first week of large jumps and falls. Six teams made double-digit moves within or into the Top 40. Houston, Wisconsin and Miami (yeah, you read that correctly) moved up 11 places each. They sit at #9, #12 and #16 respectively. The Hokies made a significant move after two straight ACC wins, jumping 12 spots to #22. The Fighting Bill Snyders moved up 17 places and KSU now sits at #17 (Shout-out to Mrs. 3M). But the biggest move into the Top 40 came from the Memphis Tigers, which rocketed up 25 spots to #33. I would say that was due to their 77-3 win over BGSU and two other  high-scoring wins. Conspiracy theorists will attribute it to this weekend’s tilt with…Ole Miss.

3) Moving down. Preseason favorites LSU, Oregon, OU, Arkansas, BYU, ND, UGA and USC continued their descents with losses this week. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs suffered the single biggest drop in F/+ that I’ve seen in three years looking at these rankings. Following the pounding they got from Ole Miss, Georgia plummeted 35 spots in F/+. They are now at #53 and didn’t even make my chart. The Irish were the second biggest losers thanks to the combination of their third loss, UT’s loss a week ago and MSU’s debacle in Madison. ND dropped 16 spots to #35. MSU was right behind the Irish, losing their shorts in Madison and losing 15 places in F/+. Sparty is now #28.  USC’s third loss dropped them 11 spots to #36, Arkansas fell nine to #30, and LSU, OU and BYU all slid seven places. UW, which remains undefeated, suffered the largest drop for a winning team, losing seven places. Apparently a 7-point win over Arizona didn’t help the Huskies much.

Fun fact - Three AP Top 25 teams aren’t in the F/+ Top 40: #22 Texas (F/+ #42), #19 SDSU (F/+ #45), & #25 UGA (F/+ #53).

4) Other stuff. This time last season there were 29 FBS teams with perfect records; this year there are 27. Significant? I doubt it. What is interesting, however, is the large number of unexpected newcomers to that group: Louisville, Nebraska, Washington, Maryland, Wisconsin, SDSU, ASU, & Wake Forest are undefeated this season and weren’t last year. For that matter so is ‘Bama (thanks Ole Miss). Navy is the lowest ranked undefeated in F/+ at #62. Last year Indiana held that dubious honor in week four, but the Hoosiers were all the way down at #78 with a negative F/+ percentage.

Top 25 Match-ups

Last week would’ve been a good week to place some bets. I don’t know what the line was on the Ole Miss-UGA game, but I’m pretty sure the Rebels covered. Just using F/+ rankings I went 4-1 straight up. The only loss was MSU vs. Wisconsin. And really, who the hell saw that coming?  That puts us at 6-3 on the season.

This week is spectacular with three AP Top 10 match-ups that have huge conference implications.

Stanford (AP #7, F/+ #6) @ UW (AP #10, F/+ #21).  This is the battle for control of the PAC 12 North. Although the F/+ ratings appear lopsided, I like the S&P+ match-up. These teams are within two spots of each other, and their S&P+ margin differential is one point. Offense versus defense they match up very well. The biggest difference in their numbers is special teams. Stanford (read Christian McCaffrey) is #2; UW is #70. The line is UW -3.0.  I’m taking the points; the Cardinal asserts their dominance in the North.

Wisconsin (AP #8, F/+ #12) @ TTUN (AP #4, F/+ #4).  This will be the Wolverines’ first real test. The Badgers passed their first two challenges (LSU and Sparty), and appear to be for real. However, the line is set at -10.5 points for TTUN. (That’s within one point of their S&P+ differential, AznChipmunk.) I don’t think Harbaugh covers the spread, but I’m taking TTUN straight up in the Big House.

Tennessee (AP #11, F/+ #13) @ UGA (AP #25, F/+ #53).  Say what you want about UT and Butch Jones; the Vols are 4-0 and their stats aren’t bad. UT finally got over the Gators, and I believe that has given the Vols belief in themselves and their coaches. Not to mention, UGA is actually a hot mess. The line is UT -3.0 points. Based on S&P+, I’d take that.  The Vols should cover in Athens, unless they shot their wad against UF.

Louisville (AP #3, F/+ #5) @ Clemson (AP #5, F/+ #3).  Looking strictly at S&P+, Louisville has the #1 offense; Clemson has the #1 defense. On the flip side, the Cardinals have the #26 defense versus the Tigers’ #63 offense. Both are awful on special teams. S&P+ gives Louisville a 4-point margin differential, and Vegas set the line at -1.0 in favor of the Cards. This is a pick ‘em, so I’m picking Clemson in Death Valley. Defend the rock.

Bonus pick: Navy @ Air Force. Screw the numbers (USAFA is slightly ahead of USNA in F/+), and the line (USAFA -7.5), and the game being in Colorado Springs (Falcon Stadium sits at 6,621 feet ASL – second highest in FBS). Navy comes off the bye week and beats Air Force in pursuit of their 11th Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy in the past 15 years. Go Navy! Beat Air Force!

Previous Weeks:
Week 1  Week 2  Week 3

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