Ohio State will face one of its toughest tests of the season when it plays Miami in next week’s College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl.
#10 Miami
Hurricanes
The 10th-seeded, 11-2 Hurricanes are better than any of the 12 teams Ohio State beat during the regular season, at least in terms of their record and College Football Playoff ranking. They’ll pose threats to the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball, led by one of the nation’s best defensive lines and a dangerous passing offense that features the best freshman wide receiver in college football, Malachi Toney.
As the Buckeyes begin their game-week preparation following a brief break for Christmas ahead of their New Year’s Eve battle with the Hurricanes, we’re taking a look at the five biggest keys to victory for Ohio State to win its first College Football Playoff game and advance to the semifinals.
Protect Julian Sayin
If we had to pick just one key to victory for Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, this would be the easy choice.
On paper, Ohio State should have the advantage in most areas against Miami. One matchup that looks like a potential disadvantage for the Buckeyes, however, is their offensive line vs. Miami’s defensive line, particularly in the passing game.
Miami ranks fourth in the nation with 41 sacks. The Hurricanes have a consensus All-American defensive end in Rueben Bain Jr. and another defensive end who’s been projected as a potential first-round pick in Akheem Mesidor. In their 10-3 win over Texas A&M in the first round of the CFP, Miami tallied seven sacks and nine total tackles for loss.
Ohio State’s offensive line was one of the best in the country at preventing sacks during the regular season, but it’s coming off a game in which it struggled mightily, allowing five sacks in the Buckeyes’ 13-10 Big Ten Championship Game loss to Indiana. They’ll also be breaking in a new starter at right guard – likely Gabe VanSickle, though Joshua Padilla could also see playing time there – as Tegra Tshabola is sidelined by injury.
If Ohio State’s offensive line can neutralize Miami’s pass rush, the Buckeyes should win the Cotton Bowl. If the Hurricanes can generate pressure and take Julian Sayin out of his rhythm like Indiana did, though, that could be the recipe for Miami to pull off the upset.
Finish drives in the red zone
Ohio State’s failure to finish drives in the red zone was the biggest reason why it suffered its first loss of the season against Indiana. The Buckeyes scored just one touchdown and one field goal on four trips to the red zone; on their last two full drives of the game (excluding when they got the ball back at their own 14-yard line with 17 seconds to play), the Buckeyes drove inside the 10-yard line yet left the field without points due to a failed fourth-down quarterback sneak by Sayin and a missed field goal by Jayden Fielding.
Miami held Texas A&M to just one field goal and no touchdowns on three trips inside the red zone last weekend and has allowed touchdowns on just 53.6% of opponents’ trips inside the red zone this season, so finishing drives in the end zone won’t necessarily be easier against the Hurricanes than it was against the Hoosiers for an Ohio State offense that’s had issues close to the goal line all year.
But whether it’s drawing up more plays to get the ball in the hands of playmakers like Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Max Klare or running the ball more effectively near the goal line, Ohio State has to do a better job of finishing off drives in the red zone if it’s going to beat Miami and make another championship run. That was a big key to Ohio State’s success in last year’s CFP, when Ohio State scored all but one of its 12 trips inside the red zone, including nine touchdowns.
“That's what it comes down to in these big games is the situations,” Ryan Day said this week. “So we've got to do a better job down there … We'll keep working to make sure that we do a good job of scoring touchdowns when we get down there. Our guys understand how important that is, so we've spent some extra time down there during our practices already.”
Make Carson Beck make mistakes
One of the most obvious common threads between Miami’s two regular-season losses was Carson Beck throwing costly interceptions. The Hurricanes’ quarterback threw four picks in Miami’s first loss of the season, a 24-21 defeat to Louisville. Two weeks later, Beck threw two interceptions, including one in overtime that allowed SMU to win the game 26-20 with a touchdown on its subsequent possession.
Outside of those games, Beck has been one of college football’s best quarterbacks this season, ranking second in the FBS – behind only Sayin – with a completion percentage of 74.5%. He’s thrown for an average of 244.2 yards per game and has the nation’s eighth-best passer rating (163.8). As a team, Miami has thrown for more passing yards per game than every team Ohio State has played this year except Rutgers, so the Cotton Bowl will be one of the toughest tests Ohio State’s top-ranked pass defense has faced all season.
But Beck has had a propensity to make mistakes in bunches dating back to last season at Georgia, when he had four multi-interception games – including three three-interception games – despite throwing just one interception the rest of the season. He’s thrown just 10 interceptions this year but has three multi-interception games, with the other coming against in a 49-12 win against USF. He’s also coming off one of his worst performances of the year, throwing for a season-low 103 yards against Texas A&M, though his ability to throw deep was significantly impacted by the wind in that game, something he won’t have to worry about playing indoors at AT&T Stadium.
If the best version of Beck shows up in Dallas, he’ll be the best quarterback outside of Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza that Ohio State has faced this season. But there might not be any defense in college football with more ability to confuse Beck and cause him to make mistakes than Matt Patricia’s bunch, and the Buckeyes’ defense could give their offense a huge boost if they can pick Beck off multiple times.
Execute on special teams
Outside of offensive line inconsistency and offensive red zone inefficiency, the biggest area of concern for Ohio State entering the CFP is special teams. Field goal kicking is a particular area of concern after Fielding’s costly miss from just 27 yards out on a try that would have tied the game late in the fourth quarter against Indiana.
Texas A&M likely would have beaten Miami if it had been better on special teams against the Hurricanes. A low kick by Jared Zirkel was blocked by Bain on a 22-yard field goal attempt, while the Aggies also allowed a 55-yard punt return by Toney. The Aggies also had an unsuccessful fake punt on an incomplete pass by Texas A&M punter Tyler White.
Miami had its own special teams woes against the Aggies as Carter Davis went just 1-for-4 on his field goal attempts, though wind was once again a factor there. Davis was 14-of-16 on field goal attempts during the regular season.
Ohio State has been strong in return coverage this season, ranking 17th nationally with 16.6 yards allowed per kickoff return while allowing just two punt returns for seven yards all season. It must remain stout as it faces one of the best return tandem it’s faced all year in Toney, who has 269 yards on just 17 punt returns this season, and kickoff returner Keelan Marion, who had two kickoff returns for BYU in 2024 before transferring to Miami last offseason.
Joe McGuire has been reliable as Ohio State’s punter over the past couple of months after a shaky start to the season, but a continuance of that will also be important for the Buckeyes to control the field-position battle against the Hurricanes. And the Buckeyes will be counting on Fielding to bounce back just like he did in last year’s CFP after missing two short field goals in the 2024 Michigan game, though they’ll certainly feel better if they don’t need to turn to him to make a clutch kick after what happened in the Big Ten Championship Game.
All together, clean execution on special teams will be a key step toward avoiding an upset for the Buckeyes. With the nation’s best defense, they don’t necessarily need anything spectacular in that phase – though a long return or a blocked kick or punt certainly wouldn’t hurt – but a costly mistake or two on special teams could be the break Miami needs to take down the No. 2 seed.
Smith, Tate outshine Toney
There’s been a lot of talk about Toney all season, and with good reason. Even though he should still be a high school senior right now, Toney – who reclassified into the 2025 recruiting class from the 2026 recruiting class – has been the biggest star of Miami’s offense all season. He’s caught 89 passes for 992 yards and eight touchdowns – including the only touchdown by either team in the Texas A&M game – while he’s also run for 98 yards and a touchdown, been a dynamic punt returner as aforementioned and even completed four passes for 82 yards and two touchdowns.
As good as Toney is, though, he’d still only be the No. 3 receiver on Ohio State’s offense. So one of the biggest keys to victory for the Buckeyes is making sure at least one of their two star receivers – Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate – makes a bigger impact on the game than Toney makes for the Hurricanes.
Miami has only allowed an opposing receiver to have more yards than its leading receiver in four games this season, but two of those games were its two losses. Louisville’s Chris Bell had nine catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns against the Hurricanes while SMU’s Jordan Hudson (not to be confused with Bill Belichick’s girlfriend Jordon Hudson) had 11 catches for 136 yards against Miami.
The Hurricanes’ pass defense has otherwise been among the nation’s best, ranking 15th nationally in opposing passer rating, but Smith and Tate will be the best receiving tandem they’ve faced all year. If the Buckeyes are to put up big numbers on offense against Miami, which ranks seventh nationally with only 87 rushing yards allowed per game, that almost certainly starts with No. 4 and No. 17 making big plays through the air.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State’s defense will need to know where Toney is at all times and ensure he doesn’t take over the game. Ohio State nickelback Lorenzo Styles Jr. will play a crucial role in those efforts, as Toney has lined up in the slot on more than 80% of his offensive snaps this season, per Pro Football Focus.
He’s not the only weapon the Buckeyes need to be prepared for; Marion has 44 catches for 590 yards this season, while CJ Daniels has 37 catches for 420 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing three games. But Toney is the Cane who’s most capable of making game-changing plays, so Ohio State will have reason to feel good about its chances if it limits his impact on the game – especially if that’s paired with a big game from Smith and/or Tate.
