Ten yards doesn't seem like much, but Ohio State's offense has had a tough time inside the opponents' 10-yard line over the last two games.
Many variables have gone into the Buckeyes' struggles: Play calling, personnel, penalties, missed assignments, etc. But one thing is sure: Ohio State must improve on its efficiency near the goal line to win three games in the CFP and come away with back-to-back national championships.
In OSU's two biggest games of the season (not counting the season-opening win over Texas) against Michigan and Indiana), both of which were for hardware, the Buckeyes have found themselves within 10 yards of the end zone seven times. It has resulted in 23 points:
- Two touchdown passes (both to wide receivers, neither of which was Jeremiah Smith)
- Three field goals
- Turnover on downs
- Missed field goal
In a way, it's surprising. Ohio State is used to overpowering its competition, which is why the Buckeyes tried to use heavy personnel in many goal-to-go situations of late, all while taking one (if not both!) of the best wide receivers in college football off the field while doing so.
That said, Ohio State's red-zone efficiency, or lack thereof, has been a problem all season. Through 13 games, OSU has been in the red zone 66 times, the third-most in the country. It has scored – either a touchdown or a field goal – on 87.88% of those drives, only the 44th-best mark in the FBS. The Buckeyes have scored a touchdown on 66.67% of those drives, which ranks No. 36.
Ohio State’s mediocre performance in the red zone lingered as an issue in the background all season, but the Buckeyes were so good during the regular season that it didn't really matter ... until it finally cost them last weekend in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Against Michigan, Ohio State had a 20-play, 81-yard drive that took 11:56. Against Indiana, the Buckeyes had a 12-play, 70-yard drive that took 6:58 and a 15-play, 81-yard drive that took 7:57 off the clock. Those three drives resulted in three (3!) combined points.
Let's take a closer look at the seven times Ohio State's offense got inside the 10-yard line over the last two games:
At Michigan
Result: Field Goal
-
1st-and-goal at the 3 - Three tight ends + Jeremiah Smith: Incompletion
- On a play where only one person (Smith) ran a route, Julian Sayin overthrows No. 4 on a fade route in one-on-one coverage
- 2nd-and-goal at the 3 - Four tight ends: CJ Donaldson run for 2-yard loss
- Personal foul penalty on Jaishawn Barham for headbutting the referee takes the ball half the distance to the end zone
- 1st-and-goal at the 2 - Four tight ends: Donaldson run for 1-yard gain
- 2nd-and-goal at the 1 - Three tight ends + Kayden McDonald lined up as a fullback: Donaldson run for no gain
- 3rd-and-goal at the 1 - Four tight ends: QB sneak with Julian Sayin for no gain
- 4th-and-goal at the 1 - Four tight ends: A false start penalty on Bennett Christian erases a would-be touchdown completion to Jelani Thurman
Result: Touchdown
- 2nd-and-2 at the 3 - Four tight ends: Bo Jackson run for 1-yard loss
- 3rd-and-3 at the 4 - One tight end + Smith, Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss: 4-yard touchdown pass to Inniss
Result: Field Goal
- 2nd-and-5 at the 6 - Three tight ends + Tate: Donaldson run for 1-yard gain
- 3rd-and-4 at the 5 - Two tight ends + Smith and Tate: Incompletion
vs. Indiana
Result: Touchdown
-
1st-and-goal at the 4 - Three tight ends + Smith: Incompletion
- On a play where only one person (Smith) ran a route, Sayin throws it away (way over No. 4's head)
- 2nd-and-goal at the 9 - Two tight ends + Smith and Tate: 9-yard touchdown pass to Carnell Tate
Result: Field Goal
- 2nd-and-8 at the 9 - Two tight ends + Smith and Tate: Jackson run for 2-yard gain
- 3rd-and-6 at the 7 - One tight end + Smith, Tate and Inniss: Sack
Result: Turnover on Downs
- 2nd-and-3 at the 7 - Three tight ends + Smith: Jackson run for 2-yard gain
-
3rd-and-1 at the 5 - Three tight ends + Smith: Incompletion
- On a play where only one person (Smith) ran a route, Sayin throws it out of bounds as No. 4 is essentially covered by two Indiana defensive backs
- 4th-and-1 at the 5 - Two tight ends + Smith and Tate on a QB sneak: QB sneak by Sayin for no gain
Result: Missed Field Goal
- 2nd-and-2 at the 10 - Three tight ends + Smith: Jackson run for 1-yard gain
- 3rd-and-1 at the 9 - Four tight ends: Incompletion
| PERSONNEL AND PLAYER(S) | TIMES USED | PASSING | RUSHING |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Tight ends | 6 | 0/1 | 5 CARRIES, -2 YARDS |
| 3 tight ends with Smith | 5 | 0/3 | 2 CARRIES, 3 YARDS |
| 3 tight ends with tate | 1 | - | 1 CARRY, 1 YARD |
| 2 tight ends with smith and tate | 4 | 1/2, 9 YARDS, 1 TD | 2 CARRIES, 2 YARDS |
| 1 tight end with smith, tate and inniss | 2 | 1/1, 4 YARDS, 1 TD | 1 SACK |
Ohio State’s run game has struggled mightily inside the 10-yard line. In the past two games, Ohio State has gained just four yards on 10 carries inside the 10, gaining no first downs or touchdowns.
That’s been true no matter who’s been on the field and the personnel being used, but Ohio State’s lackluster performance inside the 10-yard line in the last two games should also give the Buckeyes reason to reconsider their personnel usage and play calling close to the goal line.
At times during the last few games of the regular season, OSU brought in Lincoln Kienholz to give the offense a new look in the red zone, and also an extra blocker if (and mostly when) he decided to keep it. But if Ryan Day and company are afraid to take the most accurate passer in college football off the field, because it might show their hand, they should also start hesitating to take the two best receivers in college football (and their third-best pass-catcher in Max Klare) off the field, too, as that also shows their hand when the Buckeyes use four tight ends.
Ohio State’s only pass attempt when it had four tight ends on the field in its two most important games of the season thus far resulted in an incompletion to a guy who is third among tight ends in snaps this season (Bennett Christian) and has five catches for 16 yards and a touchdown. That incompletion led to Jayden Fielding’s missed 27-yard field goal on the next play, allowing Indiana to win the game by three points.
Klare was not one of the four tight ends on the field the seven times that Ohio State used four tight ends or fullbacks against Michigan and Indiana. This means that when the Buckeyes use four tight ends in a formation, Smith, Tate and Klare – OSU's top-three receivers – are on the sideline, giving opponents far fewer threats to worry about in the passing game.
In the three-and-a-half weeks between last weekend’s loss to Indiana and OSU's Cotton Bowl appearance in the second round of the CFP, OSU has plenty of time to try and figure out a solution to its red zone issues. Whether it's the personnel being used, plays being called, better execution or a mixture of all three, Ohio State must identify and correct its issues in the red zone before it’s too late.
