Two other teams in the Big Ten have higher projected win totals than Ohio State entering the 2026 season.
Ohio State’s over/under for wins in 2026 has been set at 9.5 by FanDuel Sportsbook, which released win total lines for every team in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12, plus Notre Dame, on Friday. The current odds are set at -138 for over 9.5 wins and +112 for under 9.5 wins, meaning the Buckeyes are viewed as a slight favorite to win 10 or more regular-season games.
| Team | Line |
|---|---|
| INDIANA | 10.5 (OVER -132, UNDER +108) |
| OREGON | 10.5 (OVER +112, UNDER -138) |
| OHIO STATE | 9.5 (OVER -138, UNDER +112) |
| PENN STATE | 9.5 (OVER +106, UNDER -130) |
| USC | 8.5 (OVER +110, UNDER -134) |
| MICHIGAN | 8.5 (OVER +118, UNDER -144) |
| IOWA | 7.5 (OVER -148, UNDER +120) |
| WASHINGTON | 7.5 (OVER -138, UNDER +112) |
| ILLINOIS | 7.5 (OVER +132, UNDER -162) |
| WISCONSIN | 6.5 (OVER -140, UNDER +114) |
| NEBRASKA | 5.5 (OVER -176, UNDER +142) |
| UCLA | 5.5 (OVER -152, UNDER +124) |
| NORTHWESTERN | 5.5 (OVER -120, UNDER -102) |
| MINNESOTA | 5.5 (OVER -115, UNDER -105) |
| RUTGERS | 4.5 (OVER -128, UNDER +104) |
| MARYLAND | 4.5 (OVER -124, UNDER +102) |
| MICHIGAN STATE | 3.5 (OVER -158, UNDER +128) |
| PURDUE | 3.5 (OVER +116, UNDER -142) |
Indiana and Oregon have the highest projected win totals in the Big Ten with FanDuel setting their over/unders at 10.5 wins. Penn State is tied with Ohio State for the third-highest over/under in the conference at 9.5, while Michigan and USC’s lines were both set at an over/under of 8.5.
Nationally, Notre Dame and Texas Tech have the highest projected win totals, with their over/unders set at 11.5. Miami joins Indiana and Oregon with a projected win total of 10.5. Georgia and Texas join Ohio State and Penn State with over/unders of 9.5 regular-season wins.
Based on Ohio State’s past two decades of history, there’s good reason to consider taking the over on the Buckeyes’ win total. Ohio State has won at least 10 regular-season games in 18 of the last 20 years; the only two exceptions were Luke Fickell’s season as interim head coach in 2011 and the COVID-19-shortened season in 2020.
That said, the somewhat modest projected win total for the Buckeyes is a reflection of how challenging their 2026 schedule is. The Buckeyes’ 2026 slate includes games against three of the nation’s projected top teams – Texas on the road (Sept. 12), Indiana on the road (Oct. 17) and Oregon at home (Nov. 7) – with plenty of other challenging games including a road game at Iowa (Oct. 3), road game at USC (Oct. 31) and of course, the regular-season finale vs. Michigan at Ohio Stadium on Nov. 28.
Whether or not Ohio State hits the over will likely determine whether or not the Buckeyes make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. Given the strength of their schedule, a 10-2 regular season should be enough to make the Buckeyes a lock for the 12-team field. A third loss, however, would put Ohio State in serious jeopardy of missing the CFP, as no 9-3 team has earned an at-large berth in the first two years of the 12-team CFP.
