Week two provided a little excitement, an unusual upset, and a little more clarity in the F/+ ratings. Although there are still some glaring disparities from the AP rankings, skeptics should notice some obvious movement in the right direction for a few teams. I’m sure the biggest source of consternation will be the lack of movement from Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss. I’ll try to point out some subtleties in the numbers that should help.
Observations from Week 2’s data
1) Top 10. The only movement in this group came with TTUN and Tennessee swapping spots at #10 and #11. The Wolverines are in; the Vols are out. What's more telling is what happened in terms of absolute F/+ percentage. Clemson dropped over 4%; LSU & OU were stagnate; FSU, Ole Miss, Stanford, Oregon, tOSU and TTUN moved up between 1-3%. This indicates that data from the first two games is slowly superseding the preseason assumptions. The Buckeyes have an opportunity to make a move this week with the game in Norman. Perform well, and they should leap over Stanford and Oregon at a minimum. The Ole Miss-‘Bama game could also have a significant impact on the Top 10.
2) Moving down. The rest of the Top 25 in F/+ was again relatively stable this week. Baylor suffered the largest drop, losing 5% in F/+ and falling five spots to #18. UGA has fallen the farthest since preseason; the Dawgs dropped five places in week one and two more this week landing at #14. TCU and Ok State’s performances last weekend dropped them out of the Top 25 to #28 and #29 respectively. Tennessee, USC and MSU all dropped one or two spots.
3) Moving up. A few teams moved up one or two spots in the F/+ Top 25. The biggest movers were ND (+3) and BYU (+3). UW, Louisville, and aTm moved up two places. TTUN, Arkansas, Nebraska, and Miss St climbed one spot each. Auburn moved back into the Top 25 after jumping two spots. What’s really interesting is the three largest jumps by Power Five teams overall: Wisconsin is up eight places to #26, Iowa climbed 6 spots to #30, and…wait for it…Maryland leaped 19 places to land at #53. From the preseason, the Terps have improved 21 spots, the largest increase in FBS. More importantly, all three are from the B1G.
4) F/+ vs. AP disparities. AP pollster ‘darlings’ (Texas, Wisconsin, Houston and Iowa) all improved their F/+ ratings in week two, closing the gap between the two rankings. I expect this trend to continue, and the delta should be within single digits by week five or six. Conversely, the polls hammered LSU, OU, Ole Miss, and UCLA for early losses and dropped Clemson, Tennessee, and UGA for slow, shaky starts despite being undefeated. I expect these also to even out in the coming weeks.
Top 25 Match-ups
Last week’s matchups proved fairly interesting. It would appear that F/+ pretty much nailed the disparity between Va Tech and Tennessee. And the TCU and Arkansas game played out just as close as the numbers predicted. Not bad for a weekend of bad games and few stats to support predictions.
This week has some very good, impactful Top 25 matchups.
FSU(AP #2, F/+ #5) @ Louisville (AP #10, F+ #13). This should be an excellent game. The numbers give FSU a clear advantage, but the game is in Louisville and the ‘Noles have a freshman QB. I’m going to trust the numbers, and I think Fisher is better gameday coach than Patrino. FSU wins.
‘Bama (AP #1, F/+ #1) # Ole Miss (AP #19, F/+ #6). The game is in Oxford and Freeze has won the last two matchups. Doesn’t matter. The Tide is playing fast and strong. They are clearly the better team on paper and on film. ‘Bama wins big.
MSU (AP #12, F/+ #21) @ ND (AP #18, F/+ 15). Dantonio had an extra week to prepare for this game. Based on Sparty’s performance against Furman, they needed it. ND needed a game to figure out their QB situation. Now that they’ve settled on Kizer, I expect the Irish to play very well. The line on the game is ND (-8), which is only 2 points off from what S&P+ has them. I’m going with the analytics and Vegas on this game. ND wins by a TD.
tOSU (AP #3, F/+ #9) @ OU (AP #14, F/+ #4). The Buckeyes have climbed 5% points in F/+ over two weeks; the Sooners have stayed stagnate. Despite the advantage OU appears to have on paper, I believe that is the preseason ‘hangover’ in the numbers. The tale of the tape, and the stats trends indicate to me that tOSU is the better team. But I don’t believe this is a blowout like some. I expect a back-and-firth affair between two very capable coaches with incredible talent on both sidelines. Vegas set the line initially in favor of OU – the action has moved it. I’m going with the Buckeyes by a FG, and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if it comes in OT.
As always, I look forward to your comments, critiques and complaints.
Go Bucks! Beat Oklahoma!
Previous Weeks:
Week 1
