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2016 Week Three F/+ Ratings vs. AP Poll

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
September 21, 2016 at 3:01pm
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Wake Me up when September Ends.

This is the first payoff week, for those who’ve been patient enough to stick with me. Preseason bias is gone from the FEI ratings system, and it has diminished by 50% in S&P+.  And we have a 50% increase in the number of plays adding stats and more meat to the analytics. A lot of big movement this week in the F/+ ratings especially in the Top 25. The numbers still haven’t completely reconciled with the AP Top 25, but who cares?  So, you may want to wait until September ends before using any of this to place a bet.

Observations from Week 3 data

1) Top 10. Major movement in the Top 10 this week thanks to some spectacular games, and a couple of ‘upsets’. ‘Bama and Clemson held serve, and remain #1 and #2. The Buckeyes took no prisoners in Norman, and moved up six places to #3. Louisville, obviously, made waves with its absolute depantsing of FSU; the Cardinals jumped seven spots to #6. Stanford and TTUN made modest gains moving up two and three places respectively.  LSU dropped one spot, Ole Miss dropped two, FSU lost four places, and OU fell six spots and rounds out the Top 10.  What is more important is the actual changes in F/+ percentage (column 3).

Last week ‘Bama was sitting #1 at 74.7%; with actual stats taking a large role in their rating they’ve lost near 12 points in raw F/+. Similarly, Clemson started the season at 61.2% and have dropped 6.5 poiints to 54.8%. Compare that to the Buckeyes; they started the season at 40.7% and have moved up each week with their largest increase (8.1 points) this week. tOSU now holds a raw F/+ of 52.9%.  They have cut the gap between themselves and ‘Bama by more than half in just three games. The Buckeyes’ efficiency on both sides of the ball is the primary reason for this increase.

2) Moving up. A couple of AP darlings finally made some noise in F/+ ratings. MSU jumped eight spots to land at #13, which is much closer to their polling in the AP (#8) than last week. Houston moved up seven spots, but still sits at #20, 14 places lower than AP voters ranked them. If Houston continues to put up big numbers, this gap will close. aTm and Nebraska recorded good wins this weekend, and moved up five spots each.  Lastly, UCLA and Wisconsin each climbed three places.

3) Moving down. Outside of the Top 10, USC suffered the single largest drop, falling eight places and landing at #25. Arkansas lost five places despite winning and having a 3-0 record. UGA and Baylor (both 3-0) won unconvincingly this week, and dropped four spots; ND’s loss to Sparty was also rewarded with a four-place slide. Tennessee and UW are also 3-0, but slid two places. Bad play is finally catching up to some inflated preseason rankings for the SEC.

4) Buying stock. Outside of the Top 25, there are some teams to take a look at.  Miami is currently 3-0, and the ‘Canes jumped 17 places in F/+ with their trouncing of App State (a team that gave Tennessee fits in Week One). The AP is already high on the ‘Canes (ranked #15), and F/+ is now beginning to reflect the same optimism. Here’s probably the biggest surprise: Maryland.  The Terps began the season ranked #74 with a negative F/+ percentage. They have improved every week, and currently sit at #48 with a +11.0% F/+ rating. Their schedule is about to get a lot rougher entering conference play. Although with Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana and Rutgers on the schedule, it’s not inconceivable for the Terps to win seven games this year. That would be a huge improvement on last year’s 3-9 campaign.

Top 25 Match-ups

Clearly two weeks of data was insufficient to predict the cans of whoop-ass Louisville and OSU opened up on Saturday. F/+ was 1-3 predicting outcomes, and I was 2-2 with the Buckeyes and ‘Bama winning. Hopefully I do better this week.

Week four Top 25 matchups.

UGA (AP #12, F/+ #18) @ Ole Miss (AP #23, F+ #8).  I know everyone is questioning the Rebels being ranked, but consider this: Georgia’s production is so bad they dropped four places with a win. They were preseason #7 in F/+ and have fallen every week. The game is in Oxford, and I’m going with the Rebels. If they lose, I’m done justifying anything related to Ole Miss.

Wisconsin (AP #11, F/+ #23) @ MSU (AP #9, F/+ #13).  Interesting fact: no current player in Madison has ever played Sparty before. Sparty is riding a wave of good press off the ND win, but I’m not sold yet. They nearly blew a 22 point lead in the fourth quarter. Wisconsin, however, isn’t as impressive as their first week win over LSU led everyone to believe. I think this will be a great match-up, but give the edge to Dantonio and the Spartans.

UF (AP #19, F/+ #36) @ Tennessee (AP #14, F/+ #12).  Knoxville in the afternoon. Rivalry game.  UF just lost their starting QB (shades of 2015). Florida’s defense is very good, but I don’t think they can muster the offense to beat the Vols. Tennessee by a FG (or not).

Arkansas (AP #17, F/+ #21) vs. aTm (AP #10, F/+ #15).  This should be an interesting matchup, especially because it’s in Arlington, TX.  The teams are within a few percentage points in F/+ and are riding three-game winning streaks.  This is really a ‘pick-em’ game, but I’m going with the Aggies, because I like Kevin Sumlin much more than Bert.

Bonus Pick: Stanford (AP #7, F/+ #5) @ UCLA (AP #27, F/+ #16).  I’m pretty confident Stanford wins this game, but don’t be surprised if UCLA puts up a fight. The Bruins’ week one loss to aTm dropped them in the voters' minds, but they're still capable of surprising a team at home.

Previous Weeks:
Week 1  Week 2

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