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2016 Week Six F/+ Ratings vs. AP Poll

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
October 13, 2016 at 11:17am
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Sweet Emotion. This was an up and down week for the Navy household, filled with a lot of emotion. To say that I’m drained is a bit of an understatement. I’ll apologize up front if this week’s installment is pithy.

Indiana. There’s really not much more you can say about it. Last season, after beating IU by a touchdown in Week 5, the Buckeyes slipped from #2 in F/+ to #11 losing about 14%. Their offensive woes against Hawaii, NIU and WMU finally caught up with them in advanced analytics. This year the Buckeyes have been on a steady climb, until the Hoosiers came to town. No one should be surprised to see the Buckeyes slip a few spots this week after a lackluster performance marred by anemic passing numbers and several missed third down conversions. The Buckeyes come in at #4 in F/+ and lost 5.4% in their rating. They slipped to #3 in S&P+ and #7 in FEI (which still has a 14% preseason bias – who knew?).

Observations from Week 6 data

1) Top 10. More minor shuffling (1-2 places) with in the F/+ Top 10, which still closely matches the AP poll in spots 1-7. Clemson really closed the gap with ‘Bama this week, and is now less than two percent behind the Tide in F/+. Louisville and UW held served, while aTm and Ole Miss swapped places, as did FSU and LSU. Ohio State remains the only team that is ranked in the Top 25 in all three major categories of S&P+ (Offense, Defense and Special Teams). That has proven in the past to be the best indicator of a CFP team. Just need the regular season games to play out.

2) Big movers. Penn State got a huge boost (21 places) from their win over Maryland.  They now sit at #26. USF jumped 10 spots to #27, and WSU vaulted into the Top 40 with a 19-place jump to #34. On the flip side, Stanford lost again and dropped 13 spots to #32. UNC also fell 13 places with a loss, and now sits at #39. Miss State and Oregon fell to #54 and #49 respectively, each losing more than 20 spots in the rankings with less than graceful exits from the Top 40.

3) Anomalies. I noticed some strange things in the numbers this week beyond the two-loss teams in the Top 10 that everyone loves to point out. (They’re good football teams, OK?) Oklahoma is ranked #6 in S&P+ but #28 in FEI, which is a huge disparity. But that’s mild compared to WVU’s ratings: #49 in S&P+ and #9 in FEI. At first I thought something in each algorithm favored a specific conference, but clearly that’s not the case. Even the remaining preseason bias in FEI doesn’t explain it, because OU was ranked much higher than WVU in preseason. It might have to do with the various offensive factors each looks at, but it still seems odd to me.

I was shocked to see Navy sneak into the top 25 with their upset over Houston. I’m not complaining, but the Mids are all the way down at #63 in F/+. I love seeing them in the polls, but I’ll be surprised if they stay there with Memphis, USF, ND and Tulsa on tap and the Army rivalry game to end the season.  BTW, S&P+ had Houston as 16.5 point favorite in the game last week. Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.

Lastly, UCLA is 3-3 and ranked #14 in F/+. In my mind, that’s harder to explain than Ole Miss, FSU and LSU in the Top 10 with two losses each. They face WSU, Utah and CU next. Ouch.

4) Way too early CFP. If I had to predict the CFP final four today, it would be ‘Bama vs. UW and Clemson vs. the winner of the Game. That would make for a pretty competitive and entertaining playoff. If that’s the lineup, I predict a jump in the ratings over last season.

Week seven Top 25 matchups.

If you aren’t a believer in F/+ yet, maybe last week helped. They were five for five picking winners in week six including the UW-Oregon game and FSU-Miami. I went four for five, thanks to FSU. That makes me at 13-5 on the season.

‘Bama (AP #1, F/+ #1) @ Tennessee (AP #9, F/+ #13). The Vegas line is ‘Bama -12.5 points.  S&P+ has them closer to 14 points. I think the Vols’ luck has run out. The Tide are ranked higher in S&P+ in both offense and defense, and only give up a point in special teams. I’ll take the Tide by two TDs.

Ole Miss (AP #12, F/+ #8) @ Arkansas (AP #22, F/+ #41).  Vegas says Ole Miss -7.5 points. That seems a little close based on how many points the Rebels have been scoring. However, diving into the offensive and defensive number from S&P+, this looks to be about right. Expect a one-score game in favor in Ole Miss.

tOSU (AP #2, F/+ #4) @ Wisconsin (AP #8, F/+ #17).  The line favors the Buckeyes at -10.0 points. That may seem like a lot after last week’s performance and considering the game is in Camp Randall. But S&P+ sees it like this tOSU’s offense (40.3) versus ‘Sconsin’s defense (13.8) and similarly the Buckeyes’ defense (13.9) versus the Badgers’ offense (24.2). That looks like about a 16 point difference in the aggregate. Special teams are a push. I believe the Buckeyes get rolling again and win by at least two scores.

Previous Weeks:
Week 1  Week 2  Week 3  Week 4  Week 5

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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