My City Was Gone. Not gonna lie, I was shocked when I went back to Ohio the advanced stats, and my city team was gone from the Top 2 last week. I hesitate to even submit my post this week, for all the teeth gnashing and expletives that it’s sure to incite. Oh well. You don’t like advanced stats? Suck it.
TTUN. They’re good, actually. It pains me to say it, but if I’m putting my faith in advanced analytics, as of this week, the Wolverines have played better football than tOSU, barely. It doesn’t mean they’re a better team, or they’ll win The Game, just that statistically they’ve played better football. TTUN claimed the #2 position this week in F/+ ratings. That Team actually barely changed their F/+ percentage, but Clemson struggled against NC State (they should’ve lost), lost five percentage points in F/+ and slipped to #3. Despite the Buckeyes’ struggles last week in Madison, they actually improved their F/+ rating by close to four points. And, although ‘Bama’s win over the Vols looked impressive in the box score, advanced stats were not impressed: The Tide actually lost 1.5% in F/+. The Buckeyes held at #4 in F/+ but closed the gap in F/+ percentage. They remained #3 in S&P+ and improved two spots to #5 in FEI.
So what we really have is four very good teams at the top, which are within plus or minus 4% of their mean rating. On any given Saturday…
Observations from Week 7 data
1) Top 10. F/+ still closely resembles the AP Poll in spots 1-7. Newcomer Auburn makes an appearance at #8, which actually makes some sense, and replaced FSU in the Top 10. The Tigers have only lost to Clemson (6 points) and aTm (13 points), beat LSU, and have scored boatloads of points. Ole Miss (the best 3-loss team in CFB) dropped to #9 and LSU rounds out the Top 10. That’s a whole lotta SEC at #7-10. But before people lose their minds, hear me out. UW and Louisville are really in their own group at #5 and #6. Their F/+ ratings are five or more points behind the leaders and five or more points ahead of the group beneath them. The SEC pack has little separation from spots 11-14. The best example is LSU and Wisconsin, which are separated by 2.1%: put them at a neutral site and either team could win.
2) Teams to watch. Last week PSU made waves with their win over Maryland; this week it’s Minnesota. The Gophers leaped 26 spots, and now sit at #31 after destroying the Terps 31-10. Looking ahead, they face Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue before they head to Lincoln. Minnesota should be 7-2 and ranked when they face the Huskers.
WMU is rowing the boat and making waves. Although already getting AP votes, their stats hadn’t caught up with that ranking until now. The Broncos jumped 19 spots and now rank #19 in F/+ rating. Their slate is easy until their final game against Toledo. I foresee WMU taking Houston’s spot as the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six.
NC State scared Clemson last week, and their performance improved their F/+ rating by 13%, pushing them up 21 spots to #23. Their challenge is the loaded back half of their schedule which starts Saturday at Louisville. They get BC at home, followed by FSU, @ Syracuse, Miami and @ UNC. The schedule has some easy game between tough match-ups, which may work out for the Wolfpack. Watch for them to steal a win or two from FSU, Miami or UNC.
3) Anomalies. Arkansas and Utah are ranked #17 and #19 in the AP Poll, but they sit at #40 and #41 in F/+. That is the very definition of ‘overrated.’ They haven’t played like Top 25 teams, but their records make them appear better than they are. The same is true for Navy, which climbed one spot in the AP poll this week, despite having their game postposed: they are #65 in F/+
Nebraska and Baylor stand out this week as well. The Huskers are #8 in the AP Poll, but their F/+ has them at #14. Likewise, Baylor is AP #9 but F/+ #18. Both are undefeated, but they really haven’t played any remarkable teams, and they haven’t been playing consistently well. The Huskers hit the meat of their schedule in two Saturdays when they head to Madison followed by a trip to the Shoe; then the Gophers come to town. The Bears have a loss or two coming their way with TCU, OU, and KSU on tap and a season ending banger against WVU.
4) Way Too Early CFP. No changes to my CFP final four this week. ‘Bama vs. UW and Clemson vs. the winner of The Game. Right now it’s those four teams’ to lose.
Week eight Top 25 matchups.
F/+ has been mostly rocking in the Top 25 matchups. They were 2 for 3 this week, with the notable miss in Arkansas. That makes me at 15-6 on the season. Week Eight should make a lot of folks happy. There are three AP Top 25 matchups, all in the SEC. At least two losers should drop from the AP Poll come Sunday.
‘Bama (AP #1, F/+ #1) vs. aTm (AP #6, F/+ #7). The Vegas set the line at ‘Bama -19.0 points, which is higher than it was for their game last week against Ark. S&P+ has ‘Bama as about a 10 or 11 point favorite. But then again, they tripled that against UT. The Tide are ranked higher in S&P+ in both offense and defense, again, and I’m not sold on the Aggies, yet. I’ll take the Tide by two TDs. I hope I’m wrong, and Sumlin pulls off the upset.
Arkansas (AP #17, F/+ #40) @ Auburn (AP #21, F/+ #8). The bookies have War Damn Eagle as 10-point favorites, and for good reason. S&P+ has Auburn almost 12 points better than Woo Pig. I think Bert will put up a fight, but does have the offense to get over Auburn’s #10 ranked defense. I predict a one-score win for Auburn.
Ole Miss (AP #23, F/+ #9) @ LSU (AP #25, F/+ #10). The line is set at -5.5 points in favor of LSU. S&P+ has spread closer to 2.0 points, again favoring the Tigers. Here’s where I see the problem for the Rebs: they have the #3 Offense and the #53 Defense. LSU has the #9 Defense and the #29 Offense. And the game is in Baton Rouge Death Valley. At Night. During the Les Miles era, the Tigers were 47-5 at home in night games. That’s crazy good. Ole Miss is the last team to win a night game in Tiger Stadium; I don’t foresee them repeating. LSU by a last-second FG, because Les Miles isn’t there to screw up the clock management.
Upset Pick: BYU (AP UNR, F/+ #30) @ Boise State (AP #14, F/+ #15). The Broncos are 6-0 and a 7-point favorite on the Smurf Turf Thursday night. S&P+ favors the Broncos by less than four points. BSU’s signature win is a 3-point victory over WSU, at home, in Week 2. BYU is 4-3, and looks like an underdog. But the Cougars’ three losses were by one point to Utah, a FG to UCLA and a FG to undefeated WVU. I think this is the week BYU puts it all together, and another undefeated goes down.
Previous Weeks:
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6
