October is gone, thankfully. And with November comes the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2016, and hopefully a swift and merciful end to election season.
I simplified the chart by removing the AP Poll Change column, but I added the CFP rankings. Thankfully, the CFP committee only ranks 25 teams, and they all happen to fall within in the F/+ Top 40. I wish I could say the same about the AP Poll: Tulsa, Wyoming and Arkansas are proof that some AP voters are completely disconnected from reality. All three have Top 25 votes, and they are ranked #52, #60 and #64 respectively in F/+.
Observations from Week 8 data
1) Top 10. F/+ and the AP poll matched pretty well at 1-10, with Auburn/LSU and Nebraska/UF as the primary outliers. At the top, ‘Bama and TTUN traded places for the second week in arrow. The Cardinals and Huskies also traded spots for the third straight week at #5 and #6. The rest of the F/+ Top 10 held their positions. Among the Top 4, ‘Bama and TTUN are within 5% of each other, with Clemson and OSU about 10% back and within 5% of each other. UW, Louisville and Auburn are bunched together, with LSU, Wisconsin and A&M packed at the bottom. CU, Va Tech, UF and PSU are all within striking distance of the Top 10 at #11-14.
2) Teams to watch. WMU continues to move up, and is now the highest ranked Group of Five team in the hunt for a NY6 bowl game. The Broncos moved up one more place to #15 in F/+, and FEI actually has the Broncos as #10. They got the help they needed from Wyoming, which beat Boise State last week. PJ Fleck and company just need to keep rowing the boat all the way to the finish line, and win their conference. Remember, it’s the highest ranked Conference Champion from the Group of Five, so they have to win the MAC. The only concern is Toledo (F/+ #40) gets a vote on Nov. 25th.
Va Tech is the most underrated team in both the AP Poll (#23) and the CFP Poll (#19) according to F/+ (#12). Pitt was probably the toughest test the Hokies needed to pass. But the ACC is tricky and a date with ND might trip them up. To win the Coastal they need to continue winning unless UNC trips up.
3) Market Corrections. Ole Miss fell another two spots in F/+, which still isn’t far enough. CU has rebounded in F/+, and the Buffs barely missed the Top 10 at #11. They are the second most undervalued team at #21 in the AP, but look much better at #15 in the CFP. PSU has also pulled themselves back into the conversation (at the expense of the Buckeyes) and sit at #14 in F/+, #20 in the AP and #12 in the CFP Poll. As would be expected, Baylor, WVU and Miami all lost ground with losses.
Sadly, the biggest loser this week is Navy. Despite a heroic comeback attempt Friday night against a good USF team, the Mids fell 18 spots to #72. They are the lowest ranked, 2-loss team in F/+, but they still control their own destiny in the AAC West.
4) Way too early CFP. I’m going out on a limb with my CFP final four prediction this week. ‘Bama vs. UW and Louisville vs. tOSU.
I expect Clemson to Clemson, in case you're wondering.
Week nine Top 25 matchups.
Nailed it. Three for three in the Top 25. 21-7 on the season. It should get tougher from here on out. There’s only two Top 25 matchups this week, and they are pivotal for control of the B1G and the SEC.
tOSU (AP #6, CFP #6, F/+ #4) vs Nebraska (AP #9, CFP #10, F/+ #21). The line is currently at tOSU -17.0 points, but S&P+ has them closer to a 13-point favorite. The Buckeyes are favored by S&P+ in all three phases of the game, it’s at home, and I believe Coach Meyer is about to unleash hell on their remaining opponents. I’m anticipating a win of Norman, OK proportions.
Alabama (AP #1, CFP #1, F/+ #1) @ LSU (AP #15, CFP #13, F/+ #8). Vegas has The Tide as 7.5 point favorites in Death Valley, which is only a couple points worse than S&P+ (about -9.0). Despite that, I’m going with the Tigers. Once again it’s a night game in Death Valley. Since 2005 ‘Bama and LSU have the best winning percentage at night in the SEC (probably because they have the best winning percentages in the SEC). LSU is 45-5 at home, and ‘Bama is 12-2 on the road in night games. It ain’t much, but I see it as an advantage for LSU, because they have more experience with night games. The Tide are coming off a big home win against an A&M team that was supposed to be their biggest challenge. Auburn has been hot, and getting a lot of press, which could have the Tide looking ahead to the Iron Bowl. I see a possible trap game in Baton Rouge. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a repeat of 2011. Or maybe this is all just wishful thinking on my part.
Go Bucks! Beat Nebraska!
Go Hawkeyes! Beat Penn State! (S&P+ says PSU by about 9 points)
Previous Weeks:
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
