Little Nebraska Town. I’m not a huge country music fan, but figured I’d share that song/video this week. I think any of us who grew up with football in Ohio can relate. Full disclosure, my old man grew up in a little Nebraska town, played football both ways (because they had to), and ran track (pole vault) at Nebraska University. Suffice to say, I was incredibly proud of the way the fans last Saturday reacted to Tommy Armstrong’s injury and return. Last weekend was especially sweet for me, because for the 4th time in over 50 years, Navy beat Notre Dame.
Some really interesting things happened in the F/+ ratings, and they stand in stark contrast to how the CFP Committee views the college football landscape. The Top 10 in F/+ seems fairly stable, but there was a lot of volatility from #12 on down. That didn’t seem to faze the committee as much as I expected it would. There are still some discrepancies between S&P+ and FEI, but that's why they average them and give us F/+.
Observations from Week 10 data
1) Top 10. F/+ and the AP poll still match up well at 1-10, with the glaring exception of LSU (F/+ #8, AP #19, CFP #24). ‘Bama and TTUN held their #1 and #2 spots this week. The Buckeyes made a big move in absolute F/+ percentage (6.4 points), which pushed them to #3 ahead of Clemson, who gained one point in F/+ percentage. The Cardinals and Huskies continue to dance, and this week have an identical F/+ percentage at #5. Auburn, LSU and Wisconsin held their positions at #7-9, but with A&M’s loss and a big Nittany Lion win, Penn State vaulted four spots into #10 to replace the Aggies. That’s huge for the Buckeyes in SoS, and should mean a lot to the committee. Colorado is only 1.5 points behind PSU and remains within in striking distance of the Top 10. Based on remaining schedules and potential CCG matchups, I would say that USC, CU, Va Tech, OU and A&M have the best chance of busting the F/+ top 10, if they can win out.
2) Teams to watch. WMU & Boise State are still the best two Group of Five teams in football. Boise State has an outside chance of busting the F/+ Top 10. They need Wyoming to slip up and lose twice, so the Broncos can face 1-loss SDSU in the MWC CCG. Sadly, I just don’t know if WMU’s remaining schedule is strong enough to help them, even if they beat Toledo and get to the MAC CCG. They still have a shot at a NY6 bowl game, which would be great.
My new team to watch is TCU. The Horned Frogs destroyed Baylor, and have new-found confidence. They jumped 21 places in F/+ this week, and now sit at #27. TCU lost a couple of head-scratchers to WVU and Texas Tech in Oct, and people probably forget they only lost to Ark by 3 and to OU by 6. TCU’s remaining three games are vs. Ok State (#32), @ UT (#42) and vs. KSU (#58). I’m not suggesting any of those will be easy; they won’t. But if the Horned Frogs run the table from here on out, they’ll be 8-4, with wins over three Big XII teams with 7 or more wins at the end of the season. I can easily see TCU returning to the Top 25.
3) Market Corrections. I already mentioned TCU, which made a huge jump beating Baylor. Arkansas recovered a lot of ground with their win over the Gators, moving up 18 places to #46. With LSU, Miss St and Mizzou remaining, I see the Hogs likely going 8-4 and closing in on the F/+ Top 40. They’ll probably get the benefit of the doubt from voters and the CFP Committee and end up in the Top 25, but I foresee them getting wrecked in a bowl game.
Baylor, Nebraska and UF lost major ground after losses this week. BU and UNL fell 23 and 22 places respectively and dropped out of the F/+ Top 40. UF only dropped 11 places and still sits at #23. For anyone who still thinks there’s an SEC bias, Nebraska is ranked #19 in the CFP Top 25 (only slipped 9 places); UF (which was #11 last week) is nowhere to be found. There is some B1G love going on this season.
4) CFP Predictions. What was I thinking last week when I picked Louisville? I completely forgot they had a date with Tom Herman’s H-Town takeover. I’d like a Mulligan, please.
I’m still opposed to picking chalk, but the top 6 teams are clearly separating from the pack. The four conference champions from that group will make the CFP.
#1 ‘Bama vs. #4 tOSU and #2 Clemson vs. #4 UW.
Week Eleven Top 25 Matchups.
F/+ continues to predict winners very well. I tried to pick the LSU upset. It was close in Baton Rouge, but ultimately it was wishful thinking. I’m now 22-8 on the season. This week is another bad one for Top 25 match-ups.
LSU (AP #19, CFP #24, F/+ #8) @ Arkansas (AP #27, CFP #25, F/+ #46). The line is LSU by 7.0. S&P+ has it closer to a two-score game in favor of LSU. The game may be at Fayetteville, but I’m pretty confident the Tigers feast on the Hogs this week. I’ll take LSU and give the 7 points.
UW (AP #4, CFP #4, F/+ #5) vs. USC (AP #26, CFP #20, F/+ #17). Vegas set the line at -8.5 in favor of UW. S&P+ has the Huskies as about 7 point favorites. I’m a believer in the Huskies after watching Jake Browning carve up Stanford’s defense like a Thanksgiving Turkey. I’m taking UW and giving the points in Seattle.
Go Bucks! Beat Maryland!
Go Navy! Beat Tulsa!
Previous Weeks:
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9
