What a weekend. Thanksgiving. Family. Tons of food. There might have even been a football game or two on Saturday. In honor of Curtis Samuel’s game winning TD, I’ve queued up some Beastie Boys: No Sleep till Brooklyn.
Suffice to say, there was some interesting movement this week in the world of CFB advanced analytics. Most of it, however, happened in the 11-40 range. The Top Five from last week remained in the same order, although they improved their raw percentages and solidified the stratification in the rankings. There was some shuffling of the deck at 6-10, and then 11-40 was a wholesale shaking of the Etch-a-Sketch. Because of the clear separation at the top, I’m a believer that the Buckeyes are 99% guaranteed a spot in this season’s CFP.
Observations from Week 13 data
1) Top 10. F/+ ratings, the AP poll and the CFP Poll are very close for teams 1-5, with the exception of TTUN which retained its position as #2 in F/+ but fell to #5 in the AP and CFP. LSU and Auburn are still outliers in the F/+ Top 10, and I have absolutely no explanation for it with four losses. It doesn’t matter, because they’re non-factors. But it probably explains why the CFP Committee still has them in their Top 25 ahead of three-loss Nebraska, four-loss Iowa and some other teams with ‘comparable’ records.
‘Bama held at #1 and increased its F/+ percentage, moving to its highest total of the season: 78.6%. Despite their loss, TTUN actually increased their F/+ percentage by almost a full point. They remain #2. The Buckeyes stayed at #3 and also increased in F/+ by nearly a point. Clemson and UW all held their spots at #4 and #5, but UW actually closed the F/+ gap slightly after breaking the 50% mark. The top five have clearly separated themselves from the pack. Wisconsin is 7% points behind UW at #7. This is significant as we approach Championship Weekend, because Colorado and PSU have nearly identical F/+ ratings. #5 UW (52.1%) vs. #12 CU (40.6%) and #7 Wisconsin (45.1%) vs. #10 PSU (41.6%). Based on these numbers, I can’t see PSU leaping over UW without blowing out Wisconsin, and the Huskies getting blown out by CU. And if that happens, the committee may take a serious look at TTUN as a fourth team with wins over three of those four teams. Think about that for a second.
When the weekend is finished, I expect to see the F/+ Top 10 look something like ‘Bama, TTUN, tOSU, Clemson, UW, Wisconsin, LSU, USC, PSU, CU.
2) Late breakers. A couple of teams have made significant movement late in the season. Iowa jumped 11 places this week with their win over Nebraska. That comes on the heels of a three-spot move the previous week after beating TTUN. The Hawkeyes (8-4) are now #21 in F/+ and have one of the best wins among teams with that record. Colorado State is another team that came out of nowhere. The Rams rocketed up 18 places this week after their utter domination of SDSU. In Week 6, CSU was ranked 101st in F/+ with a 3-3 record and an F/+ of -24.4%. The Rams have moved up every week since, and now sit at #29 (22.9%) and are the best 7-5 team in football.
Oh, and Ole Miss finally dropped out of the top 40, falling 13 places this week to #41. Sadly, Notre Dame has taken the Rebels’ spot in the F/+ Top 40: the Irish are the best 4-8 team in CFB, maybe in history. SMDH.
3) Group of Five Watch. Most people don’t care, but this is really keeping me excited for the next two weeks of football (yes, the Army-Navy Game matters). Western Michigan (12-0 and ranked #17 in the CFP) has to win the MAC Championship in order to qualify for the Cotton Bowl – highest ranked Group of Five Conference Champion. The Mountain West collapsed last weekend with SDSU’s destruction (now 9-3) and Wyoming sitting at 8-4. App State won the SunBelt but sits at 9-3. C-USA will either have a 10-3 or 9-4 champion. That leaves the American with Temple (9-3 and #28 in F/+ but unranked) and Navy (9-2 and #44 in F/+ but #19 in the CFP). Should the Broncos lose to the Bobcats, the winner of Navy-Temple may end up with a Cotton Bowl bid. Who saw that coming? Not this guy.
4) CFP Predictions. I stand by my very first prediction in Week Six. Book it.
#1 ‘Bama vs. #4 UW and #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State (the winner of The Game).
Championship Weekend Matchups.
Last week football was ‘bery, bery good to me’. My picks went 5-0. That pushes my season total to 30-11. Not bad for a farm kid from central Ohio. This week I’m attempting to pick all the ranked Conference Championship Games. (Listed in order of kickoff time)
MAC: WMU (F/+ #18, AP #13, CFP #17) vs. Ohio U (F/+ #79, Unranked). Vegas has the Broncos as 18.5-point favorites, and S&P+ looks like 16.5 points. This is probably the biggest mismatch of all the games this weekend. As much as I want the Bobcats to pull off the upset to help Navy, I can’t see it happening. WMU rows the boat to Dallas and the Cotton Bowl.
PAC 12: UW (F/+ #5, AP #4, CFP #4) vs. CU (F/+ #12, AP #9, CFP #8). UW is a 7-point favorite according to the odds makers, and an 8-point favorite according to S&P+. I think this game will be closer based on the results against common opponents and their styles of play. But I still think the Huskies and Chris Petersen get the win and a spot in the CFP.
AAC: Temple (F/+ #28, Unranked) @ Navy (F/+ #44, AP #20, CFP #19). This is one of the few conferences that doesn’t play the CCG at a neutral site; the team with the best conference record hosts. The Mids currently hold the longest active home winning streak with 15 consecutive wins at Navy-Marin Corps Stadium (tied with Houston). The Owls are much improved after losing three games early (including Army and PSU) with a lot of injuries. Navy is a Vegas 3-point favorite, but a 10-point S&P+ underdog (Temple #18, Navy #53). FEI, has the teams in opposite positions, though (Temple #38, Navy #31). It’s hard to make heads or tails of the numbers. So I’m going with Vegas and Navy. (Shocking!)
Big XII: Ok State (F/+ #22, AP #11, CFP #10) @ OU (F/+ #14, AP #7, CFP #9). I was shocked to see the line set at OU -12.0, until I looked at S&P+ which has the Sooners as 6.5-point favorites (on a neutral site). Thanks to not having a true CCG, this knock-out game is also being played on one team’s home field: the Sooners’. No matter what Coach Gundy says about the CMU game, they Cowboys played FCS SE Louisiana, which shouldn’t count in their win total, although they have a nice win over Pitt. I’m all Sooners in this one. Mayfield, Mixon and Perine will get it done.
SEC: ‘Bama (F/+ #1, AP #1, CFP #1) vs. UF (F/+ #24, AP # 15, CFP #15). The Gators are a 24-point dog, lost by three scores to Ark and FSU on the road in their last four games, and are completely overvalued by the AP and CFP polls. There’s nothing left to say. ‘Bama, and it won’t even be close, unless they’re thinking about their draft grades, or preoccupied with whom they’re playing in the Peach Bowl, or (insert Saban excuse here).
ACC: Clemson (F/+ #4, AP #3, CFP #3) vs. Va Tech (F/+ #20, AP # 19, CFP #23). The Tigers are Vegas’s pick by 10 points; S&P+ has the line at about 15 points. I love the Hokies story this season, and I think the combination of Justin Fuentes and Bud Foster is going to be lethal in the coming years. But I don’t think they have the firepower to stop Watson and company. Of note, Va Tech beat Pitt (Clemson’s only loss) by a FG at Heinz Field. If Bud Foster comes out with some crazy defense that shuts down Clemson, I won’t be shocked at all. It should be a fun game to watch, and I believe it will be very close, but I think Clemson proves to be too much.
B1G: Wisconsin (F/+#7, AP # 6, CFP #6) vs. PSU (F/+ #10, AP #8, CFP #7). Vegas favors the Badgers by -2.5 points, and S&P+ has these teams within 0.3 points of each other. This is where I look at trends, motivation and specific matchups. PSU has been trending up over the past few weeks; Wisconsin has been holding stable. If PSU wins, and they get help from Va Tech and CU, they may make the field of four; I don’t believe Wisconsin makes it with a win because of their losses to tOSU and TTUN. PSU has the better offense according to S&P+ by at least four points, Wisconsin has the better defense. Lastly, I’m looking at who Penn State and Wisconsin have beaten in the F/+ Top 40. The Nittany Lions have wins over #3 tOSU, #21 Iowa, #28 Temple, and losses to #2 TTUN and #23 Pitt. The Badgers had wins over #6 LSU (overrated at 8-4) and #21 Iowa, and losses to #2 TTUN and #3 tOSU. This won’t be a popular take, but I believe PSU wins a close one in Indy and gets the B1G Trophy. It probably won’t be enough to get them into the CFP, though.
Once the bowl matchups are set, I’ll try to put out an update with bowl predictions. Thanks to everyone who stuck it out and read these each week. I also really appreciate everyone’s comments.
Previous Weeks:
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12
