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2016 Week 12 F/+ Ratings vs. AP/CFP Polls

+10 HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture
November 23, 2016 at 5:41pm
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It’s time for an Uprising. I needed a tune that’s a little more anxious for Hate Week. So if you enjoy Muse, set your speakers to eleven and get ready for Rivalry Week.

The Big House

Last week caused more than a little angst for Buckeye fans. 17-16 is closer than anyone expected, and the manner in which tOSU won did little to instill confidence in all but the most stalwart fans. But hey, they won, right? From an analytics standpoint, Sparty set the Buckeyes back a few percentage points, but TTUN’s struggles with IU helped out.

Observations from Week 11 data

1) F/+ Top 10. F/+ ratings saw little significant movement from 1-17, with the exception of Colorado. The Buffs rolled on WSU and jumped five places into the Top 10 and landed at #9. They replaced PSU, which fell two places to #12. The Buckeyes and TTUN swapped places at #2 and #3. They are within one percentage point heading into The Game. UW and Louisville changed places for the fourth time this season, as well as Auburn and Wisconsin. The top four (‘Bama, TTUN, tOSU and Clemson) continue to separate from the pack extending the gap to over 10 percentage points. #5-#10 are all within 6.5 percentage points, which is tight. Also of note, the AP poll has dumped Louisville, Auburn and LSU, although they still appear in the F/+ Top 10.

2) CFP Top 10. The CFP Poll is beginning to show hints of the committee’s rubric. I mentioned this last season; I think it holds true this year as well. Conference Championship, W-L Record, and then Advanced Analytics. Every team in the CFP Top 10 is a P-5 team with zero, one or two losses and still has the opportunity to play in their conference championship. ‘Bama has locked up the SEC West. Clemson has won the ACC Atlantic. There are scenarios for TTUN, tOSU and PSU to win the B1G East. Wisconsin will win the B1G West. UW controls its destiny in the PAC 12 North. Even two-loss Oklahoma State could win Bedlam and take the Big XII. I believe the committee is waiting to see who takes control of the conferences, then we’ll see a significant shake-up in their rankings. This won’t sit well with Buckeye fans, but even if they beat TTUN and stay at #2 next week, if PSU beats Sparty and wins the B1G, I fear the Committee will drop the Buckeyes to #4 or even #5 behind a 2-loss B1G Champion. Don't shoot the messenger.

3) Group of Five Watch. This just got really interesting for yours truly. The CFP has four G5 teams ranked in the Top 25. Boise State is the highest ranked at #19, which is four places lower than their F/+. The Broncos do not control their own destiny and need Wyoming to lose to New Mexico this week, otherwise they can’t compete for the MWC CC. Houston is right behind BSU at #20 in the CFP and #21 in F/+, but the Cougs have no path to the American CCG. They're out of the NY6. The Midwest Broncos (WMU) control their own destiny, but still need to beat Toledo and the other OU to win the MAC. The Rockets just jumped 10 places in F/+ and sit at #30, so this should be a great game. If WMU loses to Toledo, the Rockets win the division and head the MAC CCG for a rematch with OU. WMU has to win out. That leaves Navy, ranked #25 in the CFP but an abysmal #54 in F/+. Regardless, the Mids have the clearest path to a conference championship having already locked up the American West. They face SMU this Saturday and Temple in the AAC CCG on Dec. 3rd. Even if they win those games, the Mids face an improved Army squad in America's Game on Dec 10th to end the season. Lose to Temple and the Mids are out, plus they still need WMU to fall. In all honesty, I believe if Navy loses any of their games, they’re out. SDSU is 9-2 and could still win the MWC. Toledo is 9-2 and could win the MAC. Either of those could jump a three-loss Navy and steal the NY6 bowl bid. We may not know who’s going to the Cotton Bowl until the final rankings come out.

4) CFP Predictions.  #1 ‘Bama vs. #4 tOSU and #2 Clemson vs. #3 Wisconsin.
Suck it Big XII and PAC 12.

Rivalry Week Top 25 matchups.

2-2 last week (Thanks, TCU and LSU). 25-11 on the season isn’t too bad. I need to stop picking upsets.

UW (CFP #5, AP #6, F/+ #5) @ WSU (CFP #23, AP #23, F/+ #29).  Vegas has UW as a six-point favorite, but S&P+ says it’s more like 15 points. I know what everyone says about throwing out the record books; it’s a rivalry game. Bull$#!+. The Huskies are too strong this year, and the Cougs are taking their fourth loss.

tOSU (CFP #2, AP #2, F/+ #3) vs. TTUN (CFP #3, AP #3, F/+ #2). Vegas set the line at -6.5 in favor of the Buckeyes. S&P+ has The Rival as about five-point favorites. The disparity with S&P+ is the Defensive rating, which has TTUN about 10 points better than tOSU. I find that incredibly hard to believe. The Buckeyes are 4-1 against teams in the F/+ Top 40 (outlined in scarlet). This week they make it 5-1. I’m going with Vegas and the home team, and I’m willing to give the points on this one.

‘Bama ( CFP #1, AP #1, F/+ #1) vs. Auburn (CFP #13, AP #16, F/+ #7).  Vegas has the Tide giving 17.5 points. S&P+ (despite Auburn’s #9 ranking) has ‘Bama as about a 15-point favorite. I’m beginning to believe the ‘Bama hype. They are 6-0 against teams in the F/+ Top 40 (outlined in black). I just don’t see Auburn pulling of the upset this year, but I’d be willing to take those points. I think the Tigers keep it close.

Colorado (CFP #9, AP #9, F/+ #9) vs. Utah (CFP #22, AP #21, F/+ #43). The line is set at CU -10.0 points, which is nearly identical to the S&P+ margin. Utah was stunned last week by Oregon, and the Buffs rolled. The game is in Boulder, which gives CU a distinct advantage at altitude. I think Ralphie steamrolls the Utes.

UF (CFP #15, AP# 13, F/+ #19) @ FSU (CFP #14, AP #15, F/+ #14). Vegas has lower-ranked ‘Noles as seven-point favorites at home. S&P+ has it closer to 3.5 points in favor of FSU. Either way, the ‘Noles should win this. Their #5 ranked S&P+ Offense against UF’s #5 ranked Defense will be a great match-up. Going the other way though, it should be all FSU.

Go Bucks! Beat *ichigan!
Go Navy! Beat SMU!

Previous Weeks:
Week 1  Week 2  Week 3  Week 4  Week 5  Week 6  Week 7  Week 8  Week 9  Week 10  Week 11

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