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F/+ Ratings Vs. AP Poll & CFP – 2016 CFP Preview

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
December 8, 2016 at 2:27pm
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Same As It Ever Was.  Much like last season, championship weekend provided greater clarity in the season’s F/+ Ratings, and it secured a trip to the CFP for four teams. Once again, one of the four “best” teams from an analytics standpoint wasn’t invited to the playoff; at least it’s not the Buckeyes. The only change in the Top 5 this week was tOSU and TTUN changing spots at #2 and #3. ‘Bama remains #1, Clemson #4 and UW #5.  There were many small changes in the F/+ rankings, however most teams held their relative position except those directly affected by the CCGs and Big XII games played.

Observations from Week 12’s data

1) Top 10 Action. All in all, the Top 10 was very stagnant. ‘Bama’s raw F/+ dropped a couple points to 75.9% but remains the clear #1 in F/+. That’s a fill 10 points above were they were at this time last season. The Buckeyes climbed to 66.3% this week (probably based on OU’s win) and is now only 9.6 percent behind the Tide; the 2015 Buckeyes were a mere 52.1% entering the post season.  That Team fell to #3, and…oh, who gives a damn; they aren’t in the CFP.  At #4, Clemson slipped a couple of points in a close game with Va Tech. The Tigers are at 55.5%, which is almost four percentage points below where they finished in 2015.  UW made up a little ground with their big win over CU. The Huskies improved their raw F/+ percentage to 54.2%, which is very close to Clemson. Throughout the rest of the Top 10, Wisconsin suffered the only real drop, falling five spots. Conversely, OU moved up four places to take the #10 position.

After Washington, the drop off in F/+ % is severe. LSU, USC, Auburn, Penn State, OU and Louisville all fall between 40-44% in F/+.  The difference between losing one or fewer games and losing two or more is significant, except in the case of Michigan.

2)  Big Movers. Florida was the biggest loser this week. From their late-season high of #19 (29.5%), the Gators have lost in consecutive weeks, falling five places after the FSU game and another 14 spots after the ‘Bama beatdown. The Gators are now ranked #38, and probably should’ve fallen from the CFP Top 25, with Tennessee right behind them.

What’s the worst way to end your season? Ask West Virginia. The ‘Neers won consecutive games against Iowa State and Baylor, but due to the close game against the Bears and the way oSu lost, WVU dropped 13 spots this week. They’re the #40 team in F/+. They look like a favorite against Miami in a bowl game, according to the CFP rankings, but F/+ says differently.  The Canes are ranked #15 in F/+, and are about 10-point favorites according to S&P+.

Temple got a huge win over Navy, and moved up 10 places in F/+ to #18 and jumped into the CFP Top 25. Sadly, head coach Matt Rhule is leaving the Owls before their bowl matchup with Wake Forrest. This may be the high water mark for Temple football.

Honorable Mention: K State got a big win this weekend, improving to 8-4 and jumping 12 spots in F/+. The Wildcats just missed the F/+ Top 40 landing at #41. Bill Snyder never ceases to amaze. Their win also caused TCU to fall ten places and out of the Top 40.

3)  Group of Five Watch. Navy (9-3) laid an egg (and lost three key offensive players in the process) and WMU rowed the freaking boat. WMU (F/+ #22) earned their spot as the G5 representative to the NY6, but they did not finish as the highest G5 team in F/+. That honor goes to Boise State (10-2) at #14. Sadly, the Mountain West Broncos received zero Top 25 votes. They should smoke Baylor in their bowl game.  In addition to previously mentioned Temple climbing to #18, Western Kentucky (10-3) and Houston (9-3) also managed to top WMU in F/+ at #17 and #20. Other G5 teams finishing in the F/+ Top 40 include #29 Colorado State, #32 Toledo and #35 Memphis. The American’s four teams in the F/+ Top 40 tops the Big XII (three).  Just saying.

4)  CFP Team Predictions. Nailed it. And, I managed to call it in Week 6. Better to be lucky than good, I suppose.

5) CFP Top 25. My Championship Weekend picks went 6-1 (WMU, UW, Navy, OU, ‘Bama, Clemson, and PSU). 36-12 this year, which is much better than last season where I went 26-13.

I hate picking bowl games, especially this early.  A lot can change before these games are played: coaches and assistants come and go, players' minds wander, games are on neutral sites, etc. Bowls can be a one-game season, and there are a lot of variables. This week, I’m just picking the CFP. But I thought I’d provide a quick stats breakdown of the Final Four first.

  'Bama Clemson osu uw
CFP Advanced Analytics Breakdown
record 13-0 12-1 11-1 12-1
opp w-l rec 93-63 (.596) 93-63 (.596) 86-60 (.589) 78-78 (.500)
FBS opp w-l 84-59 (.587) 88-57 (.607) 86-60 (.589) 75-70 (.517)
fbs opp in wins 84-59 (.587) 80-53 (.602) 78-58 (.564) 66-67 (.496)
cfp top 25 wins #14, #17, #20, #21 #11, #13, #22 #6, #7, #8 #10, #18, #19
cfp t-25 wins w-l 31-16 (.660) 27-10 (.730) 30-7 (.811) 27.10 (.730)
F/+ #1 - 75.9% #4 - 55.5% #2 - 66.3% #5 - 54.2%
FEI #1 - 33.8% #4 - 25.3% #2 - 29.6% #5 - 23.1%
FEI Offense #19 - 0.68 #12 - 0.81 #7 - 1.07 #3 - 1.21
FEI defense #1 - 1.99 #10 - 0.99 #2 - 1.27 #5 - 1.07
S&P+ #1 - 31.5 #4 - 22.7 #3 - 27.6 #6 - 21.8
S&P+ offense #16 - 38.8 #11 - 39.4 #12 - 39.2 #10 - 39.7
S&P+ defense #2 - 7.5 #6 - 16.1 #3 - 13.1 #10 - 18.2
S&P+ special teams #63 - 0.2 #85 -0.5 #6 - 1.5 #53 - 0.3

Peach Bowl: #1 Bama vs. #4 UW.  Initially, I was skeptical about this match-up. I’m warming up to it after looking at the numbers. The Huskies have the #10 offense in S&P+ and are #3 in S&P+ Passing, #2 on Standard Downs (1st & 10, 2nd & 7 or less, and 3rd & 4 or less), #9 in Efficiency and #4 in Explosiveness. Only one offense that ‘Bama has faced this season comes close to matching UW: the best 5-7 team in football, Ole Miss. Remember them? They led by 21 (before self-destructing) and managed to score 43 points against The Tide. Of course ‘Bama’s defense is #1 in S&P+ Defense in nearly every category, except one: Explosiveness. If UW is able to exploit ‘Bama with long plays, just like Ole Miss did, they can score points. The best defense the Huskies have faced is USC (#13), so they may get stuffed. They just can’t throw the ball to The Tide’s opportunistic defense like UF and Ole Miss.

On the other side of the ball, UW’s defense is almost neck and neck with LSU’s in S&P+, and the Huskies mirror the Tigers in many aspects analytically. LSU held ‘Bama to their lowest point total of the 2016 season: 10 points. If the Tide gets caught looking ahead to the NCG in Tampa (which I feel is very likely), they are ripe for an upset against the Huskies. I also believe that if Lane Kiffin moves on, or is splitting time between ‘Bama and his next job, it will adversely affect ‘Bama’s offense in the CFP.  I’m gonna go out on a limb and take UW in a nail-biter.

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 tOSU. The Buckeyes have faced the #1 S&P+ defense (TTUN), the #5 defense (Wisconsin), the #16 defense (PSU), and the #25 defense (Nebraska). Clemson ranks #6 in S&P+ defense, so I expect them to slow down the Buckeyes a bit. The biggest difference, however, is that the Tigers rank #32 in Rushing S&P+, whereas TTUN ranks #3, Wisconsin ranks #16, and PSU ranks #27 in that category. Clemson’s strength is pass defense, where they rank #4, very close to TTUN (#1). They’re most effective on Passing Downs (2nd & 8 or more, and 3rd/4th and 5 or more) ranking #2, when they can turn the D Line loose on the QB. The Buckeyes will be the third best offense (#12) the Tigers have faced according to S&P+, behind #2 Louisville and #6 FSU. Of the two, the Buckeyes more closely match Louisville with strengths in Rushing S&P+, Standard Downs, and Efficiency. What the Buckeyes lack, which Louisville exploited, is offensive explosiveness. I like the matchup though, because where OSU is strong on offense, Clemson is weaker on defense. 

Changing possession, the Buckeyes are without question, the best defense the Tigers have seen all year at #3 in S&P+ Defense. OSU is #17 in Rushing S&P+ Defense, #5 in Passing, #5 on Standard Downs, #4 in Efficiency and #5 in Explosiveness. The best defense Clemson has faced is Louisville, which ranks #15 overall, but is #66 in Passing, #39 on Passing Downs and #49 in Explosiveness. Watson made the Cardinals pay completing 20 of 31 passes, for over 300 yards, 5 TDs and several completions of 20+ yards. The Buckeyes match up much better than Louisville did, and the secondary should help slow down the Tigers.

According to S&P+, this game should favor the Buckeyes. So long as they get the rushing game going early, they should be able to open up the playbook and avenge ’78 and ’13. I’m counting on the Buckeyes to win this game, so I don’t have to cash in my Southwest tickets to Tampa.

Previous weeks:
Week 1  Week 2  Week 3  Week 4  Week 5  Week 6  Week 7  Week 8  Week 9  Week 10  Week 11  Week 12  Week 13

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