After my biggest debate compiling last week’s Big Ten Power Rankings was whether I should drop Penn State all the way to the bottom, this week’s toughest deliberation came at the top.
While Ohio State continued to take care of business in Week 6 with an 18-point win on the road over Illinois, Indiana also improved to 6-0 with a 30-20 road win over Oregon, legitimizing itself as a national championship contender while earning arguably the nation’s best victory so far this season. They’ve separated themselves from the pack as the two best teams in the Big Ten – if not the entire country – and both have a strong case for being the No. 1 team in college football.
There’s plenty of movement elsewhere in this week’s Big Ten Power Rankings, too, after a weekend where all 18 Big Ten teams played conference games. USC and UCLA are the week’s biggest risers as the Trojans earned a 31-13 win over Michigan while the Bruins blew out Michigan State on the road for their second straight win. The Wolverines and Spartans are two of four teams that dropped multiple spots in this week’s rankings. There’s no change at the bottom, however, as Penn State’s collapse went from bad to worse with a loss to Northwestern – though Wisconsin certainly put itself in the running for the Big Ten’s worst team with its 37-0 home loss to Iowa.
With the regular season already at its midpoint and at least three conference games now complete for every Big Ten team, the Big Ten Power Rankings are based on what we’ve seen from all 18 teams since the start of the season. Overall records, conference records, head-to-head results, strength of schedule and the decisiveness of wins/losses are all considered in determining where each team should be ranked, with some emphasis placed on more recent results when comparing teams with similar résumés.
1. Indiana (6-0, 3-0)
Wins: Old Dominion (27-14), Kennesaw State (56-9), Indiana State (73-0), Illinois (63-10), at Iowa (20-15), at Oregon (30-20)
Losses: None
Last Week: 3
Indiana moves into the top spot on the strength of its win at Oregon and against Illinois, the best pair of wins that any Big Ten team has this season. The Hoosiers are the only team in college football that ranks in the top five in both scoring offense and scoring defense. And in the closest available comparison between Indiana and Ohio State, the Hoosiers beat Illinois by 53 – a 35-point bigger margin than the Buckeyes’ win over the Illini.
While Ohio State would still likely be favored in a hypothetical Big Ten Championship Game between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, Indiana has the Big Ten’s best résumé at the halfway point of the season.
2. Ohio State (6-0, 3-0)
Wins: Texas (14-7), Grambling State (70-0), Ohio (37-9), at Washington (24-6), Minnesota (42-3), at Illinois (34-16)
Losses: None
Last Week: 1
Ohio State’s drop to No. 2 has everything to do with Indiana’s statement win in Eugene and nothing to do with the Buckeyes, who controlled their game at Illinois from start to finish, even though it wasn’t quite as dominant as the Hoosiers’ game against the Illini.
The Buckeyes have several arguments of their own for being ranked No. 1; they started their season with a much tougher opponent (Texas) than anyone Indiana faced in non-conference play, their defense is the best unit in the sport and they’ve won every game more comfortably than Indiana’s five-point win over Iowa. But the Hoosiers have been more explosive on offense while also excelling on defense.
3. Oregon (5-1, 2-1)
Wins: Montana State (59-13), Oklahoma State (69-3), at Northwestern (34-14), Oregon State (41-7), at Penn State (30-24)
Losses: Indiana (20-30)
Last Week: 2
Following its home loss to Indiana, Oregon’s résumé suddenly looks a lot more suspect. Three of its five wins are against teams that have since fired their coaches, while one of its other two wins is against an FCS opponent. Its signature win against Penn State lost most of its mystique over the last two weeks as the Nittany Lions lost their subsequent two games against UCLA and Northwestern.
The Ducks still look like a College Football Playoff team and one of the better teams in college football, but they’ve got a lot to prove now.
4. USC (5-1, 3-1)
Wins: Missouri State (73-13), Georgia Southern (59-20), at Purdue (33-17), Michigan State (45-31), Michigan (31-13)
Losses: at Illinois (32-34)
Last Week: 9
Coming off a loss to Illinois, USC had to prove it could beat quality Big Ten opponents. The Trojans did just that against Michigan, beating the Wolverines decisively in an 18-point win that could have been even more lopsided if USC didn’t turn the ball over in the red zone twice.
USC faces another big test this week at Notre Dame, but the Trojans will put themselves in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation if they can beat the Fighting Irish in South Bend.
5. Washington (5-1, 2-1)
Wins: Colorado State (38-21), UC Davis (70-10), at Washington State (59-24), at Maryland (24-20), Rutgers (38-19)
Losses: Ohio State (6-24)
Last Week: 5
Washington remains one of the Big Ten’s toughest teams to evaluate. The Huskies haven’t yet beaten any marquee opponents, and they had to come back from double-digit deficits in their wins over Maryland and Rutgers; nevertheless, they’re 5-1 with their only loss coming against one of college football’s elite teams. Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is one of the sport’s most dynamic players, ranking third in the FBS with 335 average yards of total offense per game.
This week’s road trip to Michigan will serve as the best barometer yet of whether the Huskies are a CFP contender or if they’ve simply taken advantage of a light schedule thus far.
6. Illinois (5-2, 2-2)
Wins: Western Illinois (52-3), at Duke (45-19), Western Michigan (38-0), USC (34-32), Purdue (43-27)
Losses: at Indiana (10-63), Ohio State (16-34)
Last Week: 6
Illinois suffered its second decisive loss this season against Ohio State, but the rest of its résumé got a boost with USC’s win over Michigan. The Fighting Illini at least showed competitiveness in their loss to Ohio State – losing to the Buckeyes by the same margin as Washington – and they still might have an outside shot at the CFP if they win out, though they have no margin for error now.
With a win over one of the Big Ten’s top four teams, Illinois stays put in this week’s rankings despite its loss to the Buckeyes. Their next game against Washington, on Oct. 25 following a bye this week, could serve as a playoff eliminator for both teams.
7. Michigan (4-2, 2-1)
Wins: New Mexico (34-17), Central Michigan (63-3), at Nebraska (30-27), Wisconsin (24-10)
Losses: at Oklahoma (13-24), at USC (13-31)
Last Week: 4
The Wolverines have now lost their two biggest games of the season to date while scoring just 13 points in each of them. Their road win at Nebraska to open Big Ten play keeps them in the top seven of the conference rankings, but they’re now one loss away from being eliminated from the playoff race.
USC takes Michigan’s spot in the top four while the Wolverines drop to No. 7 following the Trojans’ 31-13 win over Michigan. (Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea – Imagn Images)
8. Nebraska (5-1, 2-1)
Wins: Cincinnati (20-17), Akron (68-0), Houston Christian (59-7), Michigan State (38-27), at Maryland (34-31)
Losses: Michigan (27-30)
Last Week: 7
Nebraska earned a road win over Maryland while its season-opening victory over Cincinnati keeps looking stronger as the Bearcats are now ranked after five straight wins following their loss to the Cornhuskers. With just one loss on the season and a favorable second-half schedule, the Cornhuskers are another Big Ten team with legitimate CFP aspirations.
The only reason they drop in this week’s rankings is because of Michigan’s drop. With both teams having 2-1 records in conference play, the Cornhuskers stay behind the Wolverines as a result of losing to Michigan at home.
9. Iowa (4-2, 2-1)
Wins: Albany (34-7), UMass (47-7), at Rutgers (38-28), at Wisconsin (37-0)
Losses: at Iowa State (14-17), Indiana (15-20)
Last Week: 10
Beating Wisconsin may not be an impressive feat by itself this season, but beating any opponent on their home field by a 37-0 score is impressive.
The Hawkeyes still haven’t beaten an opponent that’s won a Power 4 game this season – which may not change even if they beat Penn State this week – but they’ve at least beaten the teams they’re supposed to beat, putting them squarely in the middle of the Big Ten pack.
10. Northwestern (4-2, 2-1)
Wins: Western Illinois (42-7), UCLA (17-14), UL Monroe (42-3), at Penn State (22-21)
Losses: at Tulane (3-23), Oregon (14-34)
Last Week: 12
Thanks to their stunning win at Penn State this past weekend, Northwestern now owns the Big Ten’s third-longest winning streak with three straight wins. The Wildcats have a good chance to extend that streak to four as they host Purdue this weekend.
While there’s still a clear gap between Northwestern and the top half of the conference, the Wildcats have positioned themselves well for a run at bowl eligibility, though they’ll face a challenging second-half schedule with Nebraska, USC, Michigan and Illinois all on the docket.
11. Maryland (4-2, 1-2)
Wins: FAU (39-7), Northern Illinois (20-9), Towson (44-17), at Wisconsin (27-10)
Losses: Washington (20-24), Nebraska (31-34)
Last Week: 8
“They are who we thought they were,” as Dennis Green once famously said. As has been par for the course in recent years, Maryland started strong in September but has been unable to keep it going in October, losing each of its first two games since September ended – both at home.
Both of those losses were close defeats against upper-half Big Ten teams, but they won’t beat the allegations that they’re the same ol’ Terps until they find a way to beat a quality opponent, as they have yet to win a game against a team that’s won a Power 4 game.
12. UCLA (2-4, 2-1)
Wins: Penn State (42-37), at Michigan State (38-13)
Losses: Utah (10-43), at UNLV (23-30), New Mexico (10-35), at Northwestern (14-17)
Last Week: 16
The Bruins proved their win over Penn State wasn’t a fluke by following it up with a blowout road victory over Michigan State. Playing far better than it was in the first month of the season, especially on offense, UCLA now looks like the best team Ohio State will play between now and the Michigan game – a sentence that would have been unfathomable just two weeks ago.
UCLA has climbed six spots in the Big Ten Power Rankings into two weeks thanks to two straight wins. (Photo: Brendan Mullin – Imagn Images)
13. Minnesota (4-2, 2-1)
Wins: Buffalo (23-10), Northwestern State (66-0), Rutgers (31-28), Purdue (27-20)
Losses: at California (14-27), at Ohio State (3-42)
Last Week: 13
The Golden Gophers had to battle in the fourth quarter to beat Purdue, just as they did against Rutgers, with both of their first two Big Ten wins coming against teams that are winless in conference play. Having played two of the Big Ten’s worst teams and one of its best to start conference play, Minnesota has proven it can grind out wins against bottom-feeders but not much else, with its loss to Cal still standing out as a black mark on its ledger.
14. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3)
Wins: Ohio (34-31), Miami-Ohio (45-17), Norfolk State (60-10)
Losses: Iowa (28-38), at Minnesota (28-31), at Washington (19-38)
Last Week: 14
The Scarlet Knights took a 10-0 lead on the road at Washington but squandered their shot at an upset win from there, allowing Demond Williams Jr. to throw and run for 538 total yards and four touchdowns as Rutgers allowed more than 30 points for a third straight game to start Big Ten play. They’ve got three winnable games left on their schedule against Purdue, Maryland and Penn State, but they’ll need to win them all – barring a stunning upset against Oregon, Illinois or Ohio State – to become bowl-eligible.
15. Michigan State (3-3, 0-3)
Wins: Western Michigan (23-6), Boston College (42-40), Youngstown State (41-24)
Losses: at USC (31-45), at Nebraska (27-38), UCLA (13-38)
Last Week: 11
Two-score road losses to USC and Nebraska were forgivable, but a 25-point home loss to UCLA is downright ugly, even with quarterback Aidan Chiles leaving the game early due to injury. Needing double overtime to beat Boston College hasn’t aged well either as the Eagles have lost five straight games. Things won’t get any easier this week as the Spartans go on the road to face Indiana.
16. Purdue (2-4, 0-3)
Wins: Ball State (31-0), Southern Illinois (34-17)
Losses: at USC (17-33), at Notre Dame (30-56), Illinois (27-43), at Minnesota (20-27)
Last Week: 17
Purdue hasn’t been blown out yet in Big Ten play, but that’s about as positively as we can spin things for the Boilermakers. They’re not as bad as they were last year, when they were the clear-cut worst team in the conference, but they have to win a game against a Power 4 team. Their next two games against Northwestern and Rutgers will likely determine whether they go two years in a row without a conference win.
17. Wisconsin (2-4, 0-3)
Wins: Miami-Ohio (17-0), Middle Tennessee State (42-10)
Losses: at Alabama (14-38), Maryland (10-27), at Michigan (10-24), Iowa (0-37)
Last Week: 15
The only thing keeping Wisconsin out of the 18th spot is the fact that another Big Ten team is down so bad that it fired its coach on Sunday. Luke Fickell looks likely to be the next Big Ten coach to get his walking papers after a dismal performance in which Wisconsin suffered its most lopsided loss to Iowa – a rival it plays every year – since 1968.
Following four straight losses by at least 14 points, including two at home, it’s becoming harder to envision the Badgers winning any Big Ten games this season. It’s certainly hard to imagine them hanging with Ohio State on Saturday.
18. Penn State (3-3, 0-3)
Wins: Nevada (46-11), Florida International (34-0), Villanova (52-6)
Losses: Oregon (24-30), at UCLA (37-42), Northwestern (21-22)
Last Week: 18
When I moved Penn State to the bottom of the power rankings last week, I really didn’t expect the Nittany Lions to spend more than one week in the 18th spot. But even if Wisconsin is probably the worst team in the Big Ten, there was no way the Nittany Lions would be anywhere but last this week after yet another embarrassing defeat.
Losing to a previously winless UCLA team was bad enough, but following that up with a loss to a mediocre Northwestern team at home was even worse. The loss ended the College Football Playoff hopes of a team that was projected by many to win the Big Ten and national championships entering the season, and it also ended the Penn State career of James Franklin, who was fired less than 24 hours following the Nittany Lions’ third straight loss.
Halfway through the season, Penn State still hasn’t beaten a Power 4 opponent – and those wins will be even harder to come by now that starting quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season. The Nittany Lions will hope for an interim head coach boost from Terry Smith like that which UCLA has gotten from Tim Skipper, but their next three games – road trips to Iowa and Ohio State followed by a home game against Indiana – don’t lend themselves well to a turnaround.
