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Week Nine F/+ Ratings Vs. AP Poll (Buckeyes Move Up)

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NavyBuckeye91's picture
November 3, 2015 at 11:29am
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November Rain.  Most of the major teams in the AP and F/+ Top 10 did not play this weekend, but there was still some minor shuffling in F/+ ratings mostly due to second order wins and Strength of Schedule.  For the fourth straight week, Clemson stands alone atop the F/+, S&P+ and FEI ratings.  Also for the fourth straight week, the Ohio State Buckeyes have moved up in their overall F/+ Percentile, and this week sit at 48.2% which is good for sixth place overall and only 1% away from #3.  I expect that trend to continue for the Buckeyes next week, despite the ‘rock’ that got left in fans’ bags on Halloween morning.

Observations from Week Nine’s data

1) Hang on Sloopy.   Clemson retained the #1 spot in both S&P+ and FEI ratings, but teams are closing the gap. TTUN escaped Minnesota with a win, but their S&P+ and FEI rankings dropped causing their F/+ percentile to lose five points dropping them to #4. ND also survived a Halloween scare against Temple, but their performance was good enough to boost their F/+ percentile about a point and a half, moving them up a spot to #5. ‘Bama, LSU, tOSU and Baylor all came out victorious over the bye, however that result did not affect the teams equally. The Tide gained a couple points and moved solidly to #2 . LSU and tOSU also received a small bump and rose to #3 and #6 respectively. Baylor, however, lost 2.5% in F/+ and fell two spots to #7. OU played and won, but also lost a couple points a slid a spot to #7.  The lesson here is SoS matters – looking at you Big XII.

Of note:  LSU, TTUN, ND, and tOSU are all within 1% of each other, thus they are essentially in a four-way tie for #3 in F/+. Clemson and tOSU remain the only teams with S&P+ ratings in the Top 15 for both Offense and Defense; the Buckeyes are #4 in S&P+ behind Clemson, 'Bama and TTUN.. Three more teams have S&P+ ratings in the Top 25 for both offense and defense: OU, Ole Miss and FSU.

2) Free Falling. This week did not produce a lot of downward movement, but there were a couple of note. UCLA won and Duke lost*, and both teams slipped seven spots in F/+ taking them out of the Top 25. Even with two losses, both are still getting AP love. WVU lost (again) and dropped 10 places in F/+; the Mountaineers sit at #32 in F/+ with four losses.

3) Running Up that Hill. Three teams posted major gains in F/+ this week.  UW’s beatdown of Arizona catapulted the Huskies 21 places to #19 in F/+.  Not sure I buy that with their 4-4 record, but the win over USC looks better every week. Tennessee (4-4) moved up seven spots landing at #17 in F/+ and received some AP votes.  Lastly, Navy (6-1) also climbed seven places to #24 in F/+ and received one AP vote.

4) Somebody’s Watching Me.  The AAC is about to get very interesting.  Memphis, Navy and Houston are within 3% in F/+, and Temple isn’t far behind.  The gap is even closer in S&P+ ratings. The round robin in the AAC West between Memphis, Houston and Navy begins this week as Navy heads to Memphis. Houston faces its first team with a winning record (UC) this Saturday, followed by Memphis, UConn and Navy. Temple gets a two-week break as they head to SMU and USF before they face Memphis. Meanwhile, in the MAC, the undefeated Toledo Rockets still have NIU, BGSU and WMU before the MAC CCG.  Those opponents are on three, five and four-game winning streaks, and have been moving up in F/+.  I think the chances of an undefeated Group of Five team are dwindling quickly.

5) AP Top 25 Matchups.  We are now 11-5 on the season using S&P+ thanks to a 2-1 showing last Saturday (ND, WVU and UNC).  Let’s see if we can improve on that.  This week is more exciting with three games featuring Top 25 teams. 

#3 Clemson vs. #17 FSU.  FSU is #19 in S&P+ offense and #25 in defense; Clemson is #9 and #4.  With the injury issues the ‘Noles have on offense, I don’t see them pulling the upset.  Clemson would have to Clemson on an epic scale to lose this game in Death Valley. Tigers win convincingly.

#5 TCU at #12 Ok State.  Let me start by saying F/+, S&P+ and FEI have little respect for these teams’ records.  Both look great offensively, but their defenses are #56 (TCU) and #44 (OsU) in S&P+.  TCU has the better offense, but Stillwater will be rocking for the game.  This will be close and high-scoring, but the Horned Frogs prevail.

#4 LSU at #7 ‘Bama.  Yes, we would all like the meteorite. On the surface, the computers say ‘Bama wins. However, S&P+ also says that ‘Bama’s #36 offense against LSU’s #34 defense may not produce as many points as the Tigers’ #6 offense does versus the Tide’s #3 defense. That being said, LSU has only played two good teams and escaped with close wins.  The game is in Tuscaloosa, and Saban is a defensive guy.  I like ‘Bama in a close, low-scoring game.

Next week, I'm going to throw in the CFP rankings for fun.

Previous weeks:  Week 1  Week 2  Week 3  Week 4  Week 5  Week 6  Week 7  Week 8

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