Skull Session: NFL Scout Says “Ohio State Would Definitely Beat Clemson,” Buckeyes and Bama Top SP+, and Some College Football Playoff Committee Role Play

By Kevin Harrish on October 7, 2019 at 4:59 am
Chase Young skips into today's skull session.
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Mark Dantonio's no stranger to loaded Ohio State teams, and he thinks this one could be the best.

ICYMI

Word of the Day: Wanton.

 OHIO STATE > CLEMSON. For weeks, I've been totally convinced Ohio State would smack the hell out of Clemson (and anyone else except maybe Alabama) if you could get them on a field together.

Turns out, that's not even as much of a blind homer #take as I thought, because a fellow who gets paid a full-time salary to evaluate talent agrees with me.

From Pete Thamel of Yahoo! Sports:

... “I’ve seen both Ohio State and Clemson,” a veteran scout told Yahoo Sports this week. “Ohio State would definitely beat Clemson.”

...

The story of Day’s 6-0 journey through the first half of the schedule begins with talent. This is a team that’s flush on both sides of the ball, with defensive end Chase Young and cornerback Jeffrey Okudah projecting as top-10 NFL draft picks. (Defensive back Shaun Wade could join them in the first round if he keeps progressing.) On offense, tailback J.K. Dobbins showcased his continued evolution on Saturday, rushing for 172 yards, including a 67-yard touchdown burst that Day termed a "home run" that "really changed the game." Some of the credit needs to go to Urban Meyer and the robust recruiting operation that director of player personnel Mark Pantoni built under Meyer’s watch. “This is the most talent that Ohio State has had since 2015,” another NFL scout told Yahoo Sports. “They’re talented, they’re deep and they play really hard. This team is a monster.”

And that’s where the credit needs to be shifted to Day, as there are plenty of teams where the sum doesn’t become greater than their parts. He’s fast-forwarded the development of quarterback Justin Fields and overseen the resuscitation of a defense from historically bad to top five under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Perhaps more importantly, he’s kept a program that spent 2018 ensconced in drama without a single tense moment on or off the field. The highest compliment to Day is that this Ohio State team has taken on his personality – focused, understated and highly competitive.

Everyone knew this squad was looking loaded as hell on paper, but Ryan Day seems to have them clicking well beyond lethality.

When you can get a team of five star players to play better than their potential, oooooooh boy.

 WE WANT BAMA. The Buckeyes ain't just impressive to the eye, they're darlings to the computer and analytics world, as well.

At the midway point in the regular season, Ohio State and Alabama sit atop Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings, effectively tied for first place and comfortably ahead of anybody else.

From Bill Connelly of ESPN:

There's some oddity brewing behind the scenes, though. As was the case in 2016, Clemson is taking its sweet time shifting toward fifth gear, Wisconsin is more Wisconsin than normal, LSU is riding a high-flying offense, and Ohio State wasn't supposed to be this good, this quickly, with a new quarterback and new head coach.

That makes the SP+ ratings -- which are currently hitting 58% against the spread this season -- a pretty good guide for us to reference at the moment. The polls will probably still feature Bama and Clemson in the top two spots, but SP+ is not required to show respect to the defending national champion. After six weeks, with opponent and conference adjustments playing a heavier role in the ratings (and preseason projections continuing to slowly get phased down), it views 2019 performances a bit different than pollsters.

1. It sees Bama and Ohio State as equals thus far. Alabama, the preseason SP+ No. 1 team, holds an advantage of just 0.1 adjusted points per game over the Buckeyes. They are both nearly 4 points per game ahead of the rest of the field.

I'm happy to have the top spot, but I ain't about sharing. Plus, I've got news – Bama's getting dumped too.

The Tide offense is legit and Jerry Jeudy might be the best college wide receiver I've ever seen, but let's not act like that defense isn't leakier than a dorm room faucet. Bama's got legit concerns that even teams like Ole Miss and South Carolina have exposed. Ohio State's as complete as it gets.

I like my defense led by two top-10 picks to slow the Tide down down enough for the Justin Fields and Co. to carve their defense like a holiday bird.

 ROLE PLAY. It's almost time for us to be collectively furious about what a shadowy group of people thinks about our favorite football teams, as is tradition.

We're five years into this whole College Football Playoff Committee thing, and I still don't think anybody has any concrete idea about what it truly takes to get into the field, what's valued when searching for a playoff team, why teams are selected, what precedents matter and what kind of consistency we can expect.

Basically, nobody knows anything. And that's probably because the committee doesn't actually work, because it's been given an impossible task.

Doug Lesmerises of Cleveland.com got an invite to take part in a mock selection, where he and various other media members played the role of committee members selecting teams to go to the 2014 College Football Playoff.

His main takeaway was at least slightly concerning.

I walked into a conference room in Grapevine, Texas, this past Thursday morning wondering how the opportunity to act like a College Football Playoff selection member for five hours would affect my view on college football’s postseason.

I came out with one clear opinion:

The task is impossible, and this is no way to decide something that affects hundreds of players, millions of fans and billions of dollars.

...

It’s not bias and people screwing up the playoff.

It’s an avalanche of information, much of it conflicting, and the belief that this method was possible in the first place.

Because it’s not that the committee gets its playoff choices wrong. It’s that, after five hours of doing this, I realized there is no right answer.

Doug identified three main problems with the committee: the recusals, information overload and the impossibility of finding the "best" team.

If you've got time today, do yourself a favor and read the entire piece. It's incredibly insightful and brought up a few things I'd never even considered, especially in regards to the recusals.

 WATCH OUT, Y'ALL. Michigan's offense looked like that of a local middle school once again on Saturday, totaling 10 points and 267 yards in an entire football game played in normal weather conditions in the year 2019.

It was hilariously awful to pretty much everyone watching, but Jim Harbaugh seems to think this might just be as good as it gets.

Hitting our stride.

Here's a look at how all 13 of Michigan's offensive possessions went on Saturday afternoon, and you can tell me if any stride seems like it's being hit.

Michigan's Offensive Possessions Against Iowa
  • PUNT: 5 plays, 14 yards, 1:12
  • FIELD GOAL: 4 plays, 8 yards, 1:22
  • TOUCHDOWN: 6 plays, 70 yards, 2:04
  • INTERCEPTION: 2 plays, 5 yards, 0:41
  • PUNT: 3 plays, 4 yards, 1:30
  • PUNT: 5 plays, 17 yards, 2:42
  • PUNT: 3 plays, 0 yards, 1:52
  • DOWNS: 6 plays, 56 yards, 1:29
  • PUNT: 5 plays, 22 yards, 2:31
  • PUNT: 6 plays, 6 yards, 3:54
  • MISSED FG: 10 plays, 64 yards, 3:46
  • PUNT: 3 plays, 2 yards, 1:06
  • PUNT: 3 plays, 8 yards, 1:17

I think the most terrifying thought that Michigan fans won't want to entertain is what if Harbaugh was simply telling the truth? What if this is the "speed in space" that was promised? What if this is exactly how he envisioned the reworked offense would look through five games?

Other options include Harbaugh being genuinely unaware that the offense isn't good, or lying about the state of the offense to protect his job.

No matter what, hilarious.

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