Forget the analytics. Let's examine the precedents associated with Ohio State advancing to - and winning - the College Football Playoff:
- First-time starter at QB? Check.
- Surviving a nail-biter in Happy Valley under Whiteout conditions? Check.
-
Sophomore stud DE destroying Penn State's final 4th down play behind scrimmage? Check.
- ...in hilarious fashion? Check.
- ...on top of a running back? Check.
- ...who was held to less than three yards per carry, waaaay below his average? Check.
- Conspicuous Evan Spencer-type things during critical moments of football games? Check.
- Mark May unsuccessfully summoning his shitlord juju toward the Buckeyes losing?
No Nick Bosa? Down goes Ohio State.. https://t.co/qmlnFY0DOw
— Mark May (@mark_may) September 27, 2018
...aaaaaaaand Check.
The 2014 parallels are aligning! Let's get Situational.
THE RUNDOWN: WEEK FIVE
Penn State's KJ Hamler converts a 3rd down into a the longest passing TD in Ohio State history. | James Lang - USAT Sports
11a. Penn State racked up nearly 500 yards Saturday night. I was afraid that might happen but hopeful it wouldn't translate to, you know, points.
The Lions' first two drives went nine and eight plays long, respectively. They piled up 103 yards before the second round of commercials ran - and only had three points to show for it.
The other 4th down attempt Chase Young blew up.
Penn State's next eight possessions produced 10 points, which brought the 1st half total to 10 possessions for 13 points. Its 2nd half drives went like this: Punt, Punt, Downs, TD, TD, Punt, Chase Young Blowing Shit Up, Goodnight [Editor's Note: Downs was also "Chase Young Blowing Shit Up" albeit different shit; we apologize for any confusion]
Trace McSorley had about 60 more rushing yards than every Buckeye combined. K.J. Hamler gave Ohio State another historic L, this time the longest passing TD allowed in program history, which pairs with the longest rushing TD allowed from the TCU game earlier this season.
The Nittany Lions brought the nation's highest-scoring team into the evening, having averaged 56 points per game. They paired that machine with the nation's best home field advantage.
And the Buckeyes held them to 30 points below average. Ohio State is flawed, but good. Who knew.
Malik Harrison attempts to silence the home crowd, offending dozens of people on Twitter, probably | © James Lang, USAT Sports
11b. In the continuing saga of Urban Hired the Best Man from His Wedding to Coach Linebackers we check in with Ohio State's graded champions from the Whiteout:
Champions for Saturday's game were J.K. Dobbins, Mike Weber, Binjimen Victor, Johnnie Dixon, K.J. Hill, Austin Mack, Isaiah Prince, Demetrius Knox, Michael Jordan, Jonathon Cooper, Davon Hamilton, Malik Harrison, Pete Werner, Tuf Borland...
[car slamming on brakes.mp3]
McSorley piled up 175 rushing yards (each time he scrambled, it seemed) so of course there were unfortunate linebacking moments, like Borland getting lost while spying him, Harrison getting lost while spying him, Werner disappearing for stretches and a sizable portion of the time Baron Browning was on the field.
These guys are being graded on a curve, against their own prior performances. That's fine.
But McSorley's monster night obscures what happened to the threat lined up next to him in Penn State's backfield. Telling that story requires a chart!
| OPPONENT | RUSH YDS | AVG PC | LONG | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP STATE | 91 | 4.8 | 15 | W |
| @ PITT | 118 | 7.4 | 41 | W |
| KENT STATE | 86 | 6.1 | 13 | W |
| @ ILLINOIS | 200 | 9.1 | 48 | W |
| OHIO STATE | 43 | 2.7 | 12 | L |
Sanders' contribution to the game - outside of having a supporting role in the game-ending GIF - was minimal. For the third year in a row (not coincidentally, the span of Greg Schiano's tenure with the Buckeyes) Ohio State was committed to grounding Penn State's tailback.
Saquon Barkley had 194 yards rushing at the Horseshoe in 2015. Penn State tailbacks - including Saquon two more times - don't have that many yards combined in the three games since.
The Lions scored just 1.5 points per possession on Saturday. Ohio State scored 1.7 (remove the two where they took knees to end each half). Sure, Harrison sometimes looks awkward, like a defense end in space - but he is a physical freak. Borland does not have Laurinaitis-type speed, but he was elected a captain as a sophomore. Good guy to have on the field, in the locker room and really, everywhere.
They're not getting worse. They're getting experience.
10. Your favorite team survived another outing despite double-digit penalty flags.
This successful field goal didn't count. It was replaced by a missed field goal that did.
The Buckeyes are averaging 8.4 penalties per game. They had 10 for 105 yards and three forfeited points at Penn State after picking up 10 for 89 yards against Tulane. Refs aren't picking on Ohio State. Ohio State is picking on Ohio State.
Penn State played its best game possible and lost, barely, while Ohio State still isn't anywhere close to playing its best game. This might matter someday. It mattered last year in Iowa City. It almost mattered Saturday.
9. Zone Sicks made a cameo early in the evening, briefly PTSDing all of us back to the swagadopedillidouchalicious era when that unit's consistent mediocrity was wrapped with empty panache and drunk tweets from its leader.
Zone Six then showed up and ultimately completed a comeback that would not have been possible without its contributions.
| PASSING GAME CREDIT GOES TO: | BEAV | GERS | FROG | WAVE | LIONS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYAN DAY: ZEN MASTER | 25% | 25% | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| HASKINS' ARM: PRECISion Instrument | 30% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| TIM BECK EFFECT: FINALLY GRADUATED | 10% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| BRIAN HARTLINE EFFECT: OBVIOUS | 20% | 20% | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| TOTE NATION: BEAUTIFUL DISTRACTION | 15% | 15% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
Dwayne Haskins was not passing like his usual self, so the offense was adjusted accordingly to rely more on lateral and short-distance throws; something J.T. Barrett enthusiasts used to refer to as "the usual." The box score showed Haskins ending with 270 yards.
That number is deceiving, as YAC is only the beginning of how that happened in Happy Valley. Hey, let's keep talking about how good Oho State's receivers are! Meet me in the next section.
8. Previously, in this broadcast:
Conspicuous Evan Spencer-type things during critical moments of football games? Check.
That would be Terry McLaurin, who graded out as a champion in Happy Valley despite not recording a single statistic. Seven Buckeyes caught passes but he was among them. A champion? How is this poss-
PSA: Young skill players: what are you doing WITHOUT the ball?
— Keenan Bailey (@CoachKeeOSU) October 1, 2018
Elite athletes dont need the rock to make highlight plays..
Be Different! - @brianhartline #Zone6 #SelflessStrain pic.twitter.com/oW35VdtRIw
Ah, neat. Hey, do you want to see a dead body? Do you want to see three dead bodies?
Im telling you we take pride in blocking for our brothers https://t.co/R1bIx8QwWi
— Terry McLaurin (@TheTerry_25) September 30, 2018
This is what the ultimate teammate looks like. That's a captain doing captain things in a unit that is no longer a liability to the program.
7. Isaiah Pryor won't be allowed to play in the 1st half of Ohio State's Homecoming game because he had the audacity to sort of run by Hamler as he was falling down:
I'm not sure what Pryor should have done differently to avoid the 15-yard penalty, ejection and a half-game suspension he received for this. Targeting rules are rife with good intentions and atrocious prosecution. This is the latter. Nobody on this play was targeted except Pryor, by adults who cannot figure out how to enforce a rule to reduce purposeful hits to the head or protect defenseless players.
This whole issue is exhausting. See you in the 2nd half on Saturday, Isaiah.
6. We've breached October, which means it's getting chillier. Fortunately, we can all gather around this #take for warmth:
Here's a take: Penn State, not Michigan, is Ohio State's rival.
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 1, 2018
As @Meesh_McMahon said here, prepare for the haters, @CoreyWootton. pic.twitter.com/jf7qtfq7EK
It makes me feel old and sad that we have to do this.
| STATISTIC | MICHIGAN | PENN STATE | MICHIGAN STATE |
|---|---|---|---|
| URBAN'S RECORD | 6-0 | 6-1 | 4-2 |
| EPIC 2OT GAMES | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SINGLE-DIGIT GAMES | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| BLOWOUT WINS FOR OSU | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| BLOWOUT LOSSES FOR OSU | N/A | 0 | 0 |
| UNDEFEATED SEASONS ENDED BY | 0 | 1 | 2 |
It's still Michigan. Stop it, youths. Google stuff before you talk about it, especially on television. Track down an Old and ask them about what constitutes rivalry and what true pain feels like.
HALFTIME: THE BOURBON
There is a bourbon for every situation. Sometimes the spirits and the events overlap, which means that where bourbon is concerned there can be more than one worthy choice.
A Midwinter Night's Dram. The fairies win again.
Every month is a big month for American whiskey, because the pursuit of happiness doesn't rest. But October is an especially big month for American whiskey releases, if you're into hunting elephants: Pappy Van Winkle is gobbled up by connected people and lottery winners comes out in October, as does the Buffalo Trace Antique Collection. I procured, consumed and reviewed BTAC in this space previously. It's always worth pursuing.
Those are October's Big Two (actually six, since BTAC is an orgy of bourbons). But whiskey enthusiasts who pursue without vanity are looking west of Kentucky this October, as the under-wraps release of A Midwinter Night's Dram also takes place this month.
At this point we should clarify two things: One, AMND is 37% corn, which is below the 51% threshold required to be called bourbon. Nobody is calling this bourbon. It is a bourbony rye, but it is, categorically, a rye. Technically it's High West's Rendezvous Rye finished in discarded English oak port casks.
Angel's Envy bourbon is finished in similar fashion; Angel's Envy rye is finished in discarded rum casks. AMND is rye finished similarly to AE bourbon. It's just harder to find because they make less of it.
But AMND is fascinating and carries so many different scents and tasting notes (is it fruity? Creamy? Nutty? Spicy? Sweet? Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes) that you'll spend a significant amount of time with your face pressed into the glass just huffing at it, trying to figure out which one dominates. It's a worthy pursuit.
THE WALKUP: WEEK 6
Ohio State's tight ends have more penalties than receptions this season. | © Matthew Emmons USAT Sports
4. Rashod Berry has one catch and four penalties this season. Luke Farrell (pictured further above committing a 15-yard facemask penalty in the sad field goal GIF) has two catches for 19 yards.
And Jeremy Ruckert, who has incredible hair, has one catch for 13 yards. That's it. Ohio State's TEs have four catches among them this season, and unlike Zone Six - it's not crushing the whole What You Do Without The Ball thing. That unit is more likely to catch a flag than a pass in 2018.
It's coached by Kevin Wilson. Break into smaller groups and discuss amongst yourselves.
3. 11W PRESENTS: Crime Scene Investigation - here is where Ohio State's current coaches were the last time Indiana - this weekend's Homecoming guest - was victorious in the Horseshoe:
| CURRENT OSU COACH | WHEREABOUTS IN 1987 |
|---|---|
| KEVIN WILSON | OL Coach for Winston-Salem State |
| Greg Studwara | Playing for Bowling Green |
| TAVER JOHNSON | 15 years old |
| LARRY JOHNSON | Coaching Maurice J. McDonough High School |
| Alex Grinch | 7 years old |
| RYAN DAY | 12 years old |
| BILLY DAVIS | Playing for Cincinnati |
| TONY ALFORD | Playing for Colorado State |
| GREG SCHIANO | Playing for Bucknell |
| URBAN MEYER | GA Coach for Ohio State |
Do you remember when Ohio State lost at home to IU? Pepperidge Farm remembers. So does Urban Meyer. He was there!
2. In less frightening news, Indiana starts a QB named Ramsey. I can reassure you that IU undergraduate students who answer to that name have never been threatening to anyone.
1. The conference's chaos team arrives fresh from a hard-fought divisional road win in Piscataway, where it was a full touchdown better than mighty Rutgers. The Hoosiers have yet to score more than 24 points against a Power Five opponent in three attempts, two of which visited Bloomington.
They've got sneaky-good skill players (imagine the Diet Coke versions of K.J. Hamler and Juwon Johnson) but the only way this game turns into Darkest Day II would be if witchcraft and sorcery were introduced into the equation for four quarters. And there's no precedent for that ever happening in college football, ever.
So you have nothing to worry about this weekend except rain. Anyway, here's what happened the last time Ohio State beat Penn State by one point.
Look at the joy and tears on that absolutely spent and emotionally exhausted team in the locker room. A week later everything came crashing down.
That team was dead and didn't even know it. They were all too happy to see what was coming the following weekend. Perhaps they'll have their eyes wide open this time.
Thanks for getting Situational today. Go Bucks. Win Homecoming.
