From a holistic POV, is it really an advantage to leave college early for the NFL?
The biggest element most will analyze is the money aspect. Here are the contracts of last years NFL draftees:
https://www.sportico.com/leagues/football/2025/nfl-draft-2025-rookie-con...
And here are the reported top earners in college football:
https://www.directv.com/insider/highest-paid-college-athletes/
Clearly for the top 5 draftees the money becomes a big advantage. But each pick after that the gap narrows with each and every pick. The difference between #10 and #15 is 6M over 4 years and the difference in #15 to #20 is 4M over 4 years and so on.
Compared to the college players, I'll pick out Ty Simpson for example. Reportedly paid 2.3m last year, that is the equivalent of a mid 2nd round pick. He will likely get paid something more substantial than that for a decision to return to Alabama this coming season making it a near requirement for him to be picked top 15 in order to make the equivalent or more in the NFL than he will be offered to return to Alabama. Extrapolate that to Caleb Downs who made 2.4M this past year. What if OSU offered him 4.0M to return? He must be a 1st rounder, and top 20 pick to see any significant pay difference.
Definitely advantage still for top 15 picks to go NFL money wise but after that it becomes very questionable depending on what NIL is offered to you.
Then comes the question of longevity. Most arguments made say the NFL contract is guaranteed for 1st rounders and that trumps college deals. On one hand yes this is true, but I'll make a counter argument.
Once you are drafted into the NFL your next contract is never guaranteed. If your performance is not up to standard with your draft expectation you will find it difficult to find another contract paying anything near your 1st. I would add in the threat of injury in the NFL is also substantially higher than that of college football. The game is more violent at that level, the players are better, faster, bigger, stronger etc.
What scenario is better?
Jump to the NFL as a 1st round pick with a 4 year guaranteed contract…and then the great unknown of what will be your next nfl contract?
Or
1 additional year in college making 4M, then off to the NFL as a 1st round pick with a 4 year guaranteed contract…and then the great unknown of what will be your next nfl contract?
Option 2 doesn’t seem that bad.
What is the risk of injury and draft depletion should you return to college and suffer an injury? What is the wear and tear on your body and risk of injury playing one more year in the NFL vs. College?...while making similar amounts of money in a single year.
What is risk of going to the NFL and not becoming a franchise player and earning a valuable 2nd contract vs. earning an additional year while playing in college?...one cannot go back to college to earn after leaving for the NFL.
In my option, with the way NIL $ is accelerating in relation to NFL contracts for draft picks, this decision for even elite players isn’t as cut and dry as it once was. May we even see a day where the money in college sports supersedes earning for Draft Picks?
