With less than 48 hours to go until the 2023 NFL draft, it’s time for my annual prediction for how the first round will play out and where each of Ohio State’s top draft prospects will end up.
Nothing feels certain going into this year’s draft, which means this year’s mock requires even more guesswork than usual. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young appears likely to be the No. 1 overall pick, but it’s still not out of the question the Carolina Panthers could make C.J. Stroud the first Ohio State quarterback to go with the top pick. There’s no consensus on what the Houston Texans will do with the No. 2 overall pick, leaving endless possibilities for how the draft could play out from that point forward.
Even so, I’ve taken my best shot at sifting through all the rumors and analyzing which players fit best with each team to take my best guess at how all 31 picks in this year’s first round (there are only 31 because the Miami Dolphins had their first-round pick taken away for tampering) will play out. Here’s hoping for a better performance than last year, when I correctly predicted only three-first round picks after matching eight first-round picks with the correct teams in 2021.
After that, I make my projections for which other Buckeyes will be drafted and where they could land, while I also project undrafted free-agent landing spots for several Ohio State players that I don’t believe will be among the 259 draft picks.
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago Bears): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Although I initially believed the Panthers traded up to the No. 1 overall pick to draft Stroud, all signs in recent weeks have pointed toward Carolina taking Young. That’s a pick that’s hard to argue against; while Stroud has a more prototypical body type for an NFL quarterback, Young is a special playmaker who’s more than talented enough to make up for his smaller stature as long as he can stay healthy.
2. Houston Texans: Will Anderson, DE/OLB, Alabama
I think it would be a mistake if the Texans pass upon Stroud, given their need for a franchise quarterback, but there’s been too much smoke that they’re looking in other directions to ignore at this point. I’d be surprised if they drafted a quarterback other than Stroud at No. 2, but there’s an increasing belief they’ll draft a pass-rusher with their first pick. Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson is also an option, but Anderson was the best pass-rusher in college football for the past two years and should be the first defensive player off the board.
3. (PROJECTED TRADE) Tennessee Titans (from Arizona Cardinals): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
I’ve viewed the Titans as a potential destination for Stroud ever since I watched Mike Vrabel stand alongside Ryan Day to watch Stroud throw at last year’s Ohio State pro day, and there’s been considerable chatter leading up to the draft that Tennessee could be in the trade-up market for a quarterback. With Ryan Tannehill entering the final year of his contract, the Titans need to identify their quarterback of the future, and Stroud would give them an immediate jolt of passing ability.
If the Texans draft Anderson over Stroud, the Cardinals will be looking to sell the No. 3 pick to the highest bidder. A move up from 11th to third won’t come cheap – for reference, the 49ers gave up two future first-round picks and a third-round pick to move up from 12th to third in 2021 – but the Titans just might be motivated to be aggressive if it means jumping their AFC South rival for Stroud.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
With Stroud off the board, this pick comes down to whether the quarterback-needy Colts prefer Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis. Plenty of reports suggest the Colts like Levis, but Colts general manager Chris Ballard is known for prioritizing physical traits. No quarterback in this year’s draft has greater physical attributes than Richardson, who completed just 53.8 percent of his passes last season at Florida but pairs elite athleticism with a rocket arm.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Tyree Wilson, OLB/DE, Texas Tech
The Seahawks don’t have a true premier pass-rusher off the edge, giving them good reason to draft whoever the Texans don’t take between Anderson and Wilson. At 6-foot-6 and 271 pounds with 35 5/8-inch arms, Wilson has the tools NFL scouts love in an edge defender, and the Seahawks are another team that puts a premium on physical attributes when drafting.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
After trading Jeff Okudah to the Atlanta Falcons, the Lions could draft another cornerback with a top-10 pick to replace him. A first-team All-American and Jim Thorpe Award finalist who helped Illinois re-emerge as a Big Ten contender last season, Witherspoon is regarded as one of the draft’s top two cornerbacks and has been repeatedly linked with the Lions since they dealt Okudah away earlier this month.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
There are numerous red flags surrounding Carter, most notably his arrest after he was charged with reckless driving and racing in the incident that led to the death of his Georgia teammate Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy. But he’s also considered by some to be the most talented player in the entire draft, which means someone will likely take the chance on him sooner than later. That team could be the Raiders, who have a history of taking risks in the draft and need a difference-maker on their interior defensive line.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Nolan Smith, OLB/DE, Georgia
The No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2019, Smith possesses rare athleticism for an edge defender and was, along with Carter and others, a key piece of Georgia’s back-to-back national championship defenses until he suffered a season-ending injury last year. With a 4.39-second 40-yard dash time, he’s the kind of player who routinely sneaks into the top 10. The Falcons need pass-rushing help, so I expect them to strongly consider keeping Smith in his home state.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Drafting Johnson to give his former Ohio State teammate Justin Fields better protection has been a popular projection ever since the Bears traded down to No. 9, and it’s a pick they should make if they get the chance. The Bears’ offensive line has been one of the NFL’s worst in Fields’ first two years in the league, and Johnson projects as someone who can step in right away at either tackle spot and provide an immediate upgrade on the edge.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Eagles haven’t drafted a running back in Round 1 since they took Ohio State’s Keith Byars in 1986, but Robinson could be the player to change that. Once a silent commit to Ohio State himself, Robinson is an elite running back prospect who would have been a sure-fire top-10 pick before the NFL started devaluing the position. The Eagles don’t have a lot of pressing needs, so they can afford to draft a ball carrier early. Robinson would make an already-great offense even more dangerous while replacing last year’s starter Miles Sanders, who left for the Panthers in free agency.
Bijan Robinson could be the first running back drafted in the top 10 since Saquon Barkley in 2019. (Photo: Scott Wachter – USA TODAY Sports)
11. (PROJECTED TRADE) Arizona Cardinals: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez has been projected as a top-10 pick in many mocks, so the Cardinals would likely be thrilled to land him after trading down eight spots. Cornerback is one of the Cardinals’ biggest needs following the free-agency departure of Byron Murphy to the Minnesota Vikings, and Gonzalez could easily be considered the best player available in this scenario.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
If the Texans indeed prefer Levis over Stroud, this would be the best-case scenario for their two first-round picks. While Levis is a project who needs to improve his accuracy to be a successful NFL quarterback, it would be a big win for the Texans if they can land the draft’s top defensive player and still come away with one of the top four quarterbacks.
13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Thanks to the Packers swapping first-round picks with the Jets as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade, Smith-Njigba could go to Green Bay. The Packers need to add more weapons for new quarterback Jordan Love, and Smith-Njigba is a great candidate to make life easier for a first-year NFL starting quarterback just like he did for Stroud at Ohio State in 2021. Jumping the Patriots, who are also a prime candidate to draft JSN, could be exactly what the Packers needed to do to bring the draft’s top wide receiver to Green Bay – though there’s certainly an argument to be made that Smith-Njigba should be drafted even higher.
14. New England Patriots: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Offensive tackle is the Patriots’ biggest need, so they have good reason to draft the best OT available if Smith-Njigba is off the board. Jones excelled as both a run blocker and pass protector for the national champion Bulldogs, and he’s more of a true tackle than Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, who many NFL scouts believe will end up at guard.
15. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
The Jets should also be looking to upgrade their offensive line to protect their new quarterback acquisition, and Skoronski’s potential to play either outside or inside makes him a natural fit for New York. While he provides insurance at left tackle after Mekhi Becton missed nearly all of the last two seasons due to knee injuries, Skoronski could also kick inside to play guard or even center if Becton gets healthy and plays up to his potential at LT.
16. Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Cornerback and offensive line are two of Washington’s biggest needs, so their draft selection could come down to who the best player available on the board is between those two positions. In this scenario, that’s Porter, which would give the Big Ten six draft picks in the first half of Round 1 – three from Ohio State and three from elsewhere in the conference.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Steelers are another team that needs to upgrade at offensive tackle, which is why they’ve been projected as a potential early landing spot for Dawand Jones, but that’s less likely to happen with their first-round pick if Wright is still on the board. An All-SEC first-teamer last season, Wright is seen as the draft’s best true right tackle with the ability also to play left tackle.
18. Detroit Lions: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Another Big Ten player who could easily come off the board in the top 15 if not the top 10, Van Ness would be a value-driven pick to the Lions at 18, giving them another long, powerful and athletic defensive end to pair with Aidan Hutchinson on the edges of their defense. Van Ness can also play inside at defensive tackle situationally, helping the Lions address their need for an interior difference-maker as well.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Safety is the Buccaneers’ most pressing need entering the draft, and Branch is the only safety projected to be a first-round pick. He played primarily as a nickel safety at Alabama but could also potentially pair with Antoine Winfield Jr. as a deep safety at Tampa Bay, with the Buccaneers in the market for new starters both at strong safety and in the slot.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Seahawks could draft Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker as an heir apparent to Geno Smith, but they’d draw more immediate benefits from adding another target for Smith to pair with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at wide receiver. Flowers is the draft’s best open-field playmaker at the position not named Smith-Njigba and his speed makes him a great fit to replace Marquise Goodwin while giving the Seahawks one of the league’s most dynamic trios at wideout.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Austin Ekeler is entering the final year of his contract with the Chargers and recently requested permission to seek a trade after contract extension talks with the team reached an impasse. If the Chargers aren’t confident Ekeler will remain in Los Angeles, Gibbs would be a natural fit to replace him with his explosive playmaking ability as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Myles Murphy, OLB/DE, Clemson
The Ravens are known for their best-player-available drafting strategy, and Murphy would fit the bill as a player who’s been projected to go as high as the top 10. While the Ravens drafted Odafe Oweh in Round 1 in 2021 and David Ojabo in Round 2 in 2022, they like to rotate on the edge and 2022 team sacks leader Justin Houston is no longer on the roster, giving them reason to add another edge defender who can be an every-down player.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
While it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Vikings draft Hooker with Kirk Cousins going into a contract year, they’d get more immediate dividends from drafting a wideout to pair with Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn. Johnston’s 6-foot-3, 208-pound size and the big-play ability he repeatedly showed at TCU would make him a great complement to the weapons the Vikings already have.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Banks flew under the radar at Maryland, never earning more than honorable mention All-Big Ten honors, but he’s well-liked by the NFL as a 6-foot-2, 205-pound cornerback who plays with great physicality. Cornerback is the Jaguars’ biggest need in this year’s draft, and Banks is the only sure-fire first-round cornerback left on the board.
25. New York Giants: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
The Giants have question marks at multiple spots on their interior offensive line, so it would make sense for them to select the draft’s highest-rated interior offensive lineman. Torrence is a powerful 330-pound mauler who earned consensus All-American honors as Florida’s right guard last season.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Cowboys lost Dalton Schultz to the Texans in free agency, making Dallas likely to take the draft’s top tight end if he’s still on the board at No. 26. Dubbed “Catholic Gronk” by some of my Eleven Warriors teammates, Mayer was a standout as both a receiver and blocker at Notre Dame and should be ready to make an immediate impact in both areas in the NFL.
Michael Mayer projects to be the first tight end drafted. (Photo: Michael Caterina / USA TODAY NETWORK)
27. Buffalo Bills: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Much like the Seahawks, the Bills already have two great wide receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis but are in the market for a third receiver to complement them in the starting lineup. Addison is a natural fit with his route-running skill and ability to make plays both outside and in the slot, which enabled him to become the Biletnikoff Award at Pitt in 2021 before he transferred to USC.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Bengals’ ongoing issues at right tackle make this a potential landing spot for Dawand Jones, but they’d be hard-pressed to pass up one of the two projected first-round tight ends if either is still on the board. Kincaid isn’t the blocker Mayer is, but he’s a more dynamic pass-catcher who would give Joe Burrow another great weapon to work with.
29. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco 49ers via Broncos and Dolphins): Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech
The Saints are likely to draft an edge defender in the early rounds, and White has emerged as a possible late first-round pick with his excellent size and athleticism at 6-foot-5 and 285 pounds. Those are the kinds of pass-rushers the Saints usually target, and they’ve shown interest in White.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT/DE, Northwestern
Ohio State fans who watched closely will remember Adebawore from this past season’s slopfest in Evanston, where he was as disruptive as any defensive lineman against the Buckeyes all season. A spectacular athlete at 282 pounds who ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Adebawore is another sleeper to land in the late first round, and his versatility to play both inside and outside could make a valuable rotational piece immediately and a potential long-term successor to Fletcher Cox for the Eagles.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The last pick of the first round may be the most likely first-round landing spot for Jones, who could plug a hole at right tackle in Kansas City. But that would be more likely if Harrison is already off the board, as Harrison is widely projected to be one of the draft’s top five offensive tackles and could be seen as more of a plug-and-play starter for the defending Super Bowl champions.
In addition to Stroud, Johnson and Smith-Njigba, I am expecting five more Buckeyes to be drafted and at least four others to land post-draft contracts as undrafted free agents, starting with Jones in Round 2.
OT Dawand Jones: Round 2, No. 50 overall, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Jones being the top offensive tackle still on the board at the start of Round 2 in this scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team trade up into the early second round to secure the chance to draft him. If that doesn’t happen, a logical landing spot for Jones would be in Tampa Bay, which already has an elite right tackle in Tristan Wirfs but is considering moving him across the line to replace Donovan Smith at left tackle, which would leave them in need of a new RT.
Dawand Jones should be the fourth Buckeye off the board in the 2023 NFL draft.
C Luke Wypler: Round 3, No. 65 overall, Houston Texans
While I don’t have the Texans drafting either Stroud or Smith-Njigba, one Buckeye I believe they won’t pass up – if he’s still available in the third round – is Wypler. Center is a major position of need for the Texans, which would give Wypler the opportunity to step in and compete for a starting job at his natural position right away.
DE Zach Harrison: Round 3, No. 95 overall, Kansas City Chiefs
Although I think Harrison could come off the board earlier in Round 3, I slotted him with the Chiefs because I think they are one of the best team fits for Harrison. The Chiefs are looking for another rotational defensive end, and Harrison fits the mold of bigger defensive ends they typically look for in their 4-3 defense. With his high physical upside and versatility to also rush from the interior, I don’t think Kansas City would pass him up if he’s still on the board with the final non-compensatory pick of the third round.
S Ronnie Hickman: Round 6, No. 216 overall, San Francisco 49ers
Hickman’s mock draft projections have ranged everywhere from the third round to the seventh round, but the sixth round seems like the sweet spot for his draft stock. The 49ers lack depth at safety, so Hickman’s ability to play both free and strong safety could make him an appealing late-round choice.
S Tanner McCalister: Round 7, No. 244 overall, Dallas Cowboys
McCalister hasn’t shown up in many mock drafts, but his impressive showing at Ohio State’s pro day gives him a real chance of being selected in the late rounds. The Cowboys would be a logical destination, as the Rockwell, Texas native made a pre-draft visit with his hometown team and could bolster their depth at both safety and nickelback.
CB Cameron Brown: Undrafted free agent, Cincinnati Bengals
Brown is another Buckeye who sits on the bubble of being drafted or going undrafted, and his injury history at Ohio State could push him outside of that bubble. He should get signed quickly if he goes undrafted, and the Bengals — who need cornerback depth — look like a strong candidate to snap him up after hosting him for a pre-draft visit.
DT Taron Vincent: Undrafted free agent, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams currently have only 56 players under contract, which means they’ll be signing a lot of undrafted free agents to fill out their 90-man roster. Among Buckeyes likely to go undrafted, Vincent might be the one who would help them most, as he’d have a real chance to earn a roster spot on what’s currently a thin defensive line around Aaron Donald.
DT Jerron Cage: Undrafted free agent, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals could use more depth at defensive tackle, which could create an opportunity for Cage to join his hometown team and compete for a roster spot.
FB/TE Mitch Rossi: Undrafted free agent, Tennessee Titans
This one just seems too obvious. Rossi is a lifelong Titans fan who grew up outside of Nashville, and the Titans could be in the market for a fullback after waiving Tory Carter last season. While Rossi is unlikely to get drafted, his versatility to play both fullback and tight end and to play on several special teams units gives him a real chance to make a roster as a role player.
Three other former Ohio State football players will also be looking to land NFL opportunities this weekend: Kicker Noah Ruggles, long snapper Bradley Robinson and linebacker Palaie Gaoteote. Their paths to making an NFL roster are most likely to come via earning a contract at a rookie minicamp.
