Happy Draft Day.
And no, that’s not a reference to that mediocre Kevin Costner movie.
Thursday officially kicks off the start of the NFL Draft, which I’ve always considered to be like a second graduation day of sorts for many of college football’s greatest stars. With the draft comes plenty of childhood dreams realized, and in the days leading up to it, some outlandish, bold predictions.
I figured I might as well join the many other sportswriters trying their hand at predicting something nearly impossible to get 100 percent right, especially when referring to picks outside the top five. Below, I’ve compiled four predictions for this week’s NFL draft, three concerning Ohio State and one relating to the draft in general.
Cheers to looking back at this on Saturday and laughing together at what a colossal disaster these predictions turned out to be. If by some miracle one or two are right, I promise to only take a small victory lap.
Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are the first two receivers off the board
Starting hot and heavy, Brian Hartline will have yet another success story to boast about when both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are top 10 picks in the NFL draft as the No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers taken on Thursday night.
Wilson to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 is a popular choice amongst NFL mock drafts, and although this is technically a bold prediction article, it’s hard to argue that’s a likely landing spot for the Texas native. So, where does Olave go?
At No. 10 overall. Not to New York, though, as I predict the Jets will find a way to complete their rumored deal with San Francisco to acquire disgruntled wideout Deebo Samuel, with the 10th pick being a key component to the package. With the 49ers in a win-now window, they’ll select Olave, who ran a blazing 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and shined at Ohio State's pro day. Olave also seems like the safest bet to have the most pro success immediately, so San Francisco will opt for him over a high-ceiling talent like Jameson Williams or Drake London.
Nicholas Petit-Frere becomes Day 1 starter
Offensive tackles are always in high demand in the first few rounds of the NFL draft. While Nicholas Petit-Frere is unlikely to be a first-round selection, most mock drafts have the Ohio State tackle taken in the second or third round, still plenty high enough to be considered a high-value asset to an NFL franchise.
Thus, Petit-Frere will be scooped up by a team envisioning him as either its starting left or right tackle entering training camp. He played both at Ohio State, so dealer’s choice!
There are plenty of examples of Day 2 offensive linemen starting from Day One, and Petit-Frere has the pedigree and the experience to assist a team immediately that went another direction in the first round.
Of course, roster construction of the team that selects Petit-Frere will obviously be critical to ensuring this prediction becomes a reality. But should my esteemed co-worker Dan Hope nail his prediction for Petit-Frere’s landing spot in his mock draft that a rebuilding team like the Chicago Bears selects him, it’s incredibly unlikely a team of that caliber has two tackles worthy of keeping Petit-Frere on the bench as a rookie.
Master Teague gets drafted
In most seven-round mocks out there, you’re not going to find Master Teague’s name on them. That’s not terribly surprising considering Teague essentially found himself demoted to Ohio State’s third-string running back by the end of last year in what turned out to be a disappointing season for the 5-foot-11, 225-pound running back from Tennessee.
His season was disappointing enough that he didn’t even get invited to the NFL Combine. Fortunately for Teague, he still had the opportunity to show his athleticism in front of more than 100 scouts at Ohio State’s pro day in late March.
He responded by running a blazing 4.44-second 40-yard dash and had a better performance in the bench press (27 reps) and broad jump (10 feet, 11 inches) than any running back that tested at the combine.
Sure, what a player shows on tape in college is half the battle of getting picked in the NFL draft, and the lack of playing time last season will hurt Teague this weekend. But the NFL draft is also about projecting what type of player someone can be, not necessarily what type of player they are now. I predict some team is going to fall in love with those unreal raw physical tools Teague displayed at pro day and take a late-round flier on him Saturday before all is said and done.
Only two QBs are taken in the first round
This is probably the dumbest prediction of the entire article. So many NFL teams are so quarterback-desperate they often overreach for college signal-callers every year. Plus, recent draft history is certainly working against the prediction coming true.
Last year’s draft had five quarterbacks taken in the first round. Four went on Day 1 in the 2020 draft. You’d have to go all the way back to the 2015 NFL Draft to find the last time only two quarterbacks were first-round picks, and Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota went No. 1 and No. 2 overall that year.
But two first-round quarterbacks is exactly what I’m forecasting this year. Let’s be honest, this quarterback class is completely underwhelming compared to the high ceiling of 2021 draftees and the promise of upcoming 2023 quarterbacks.
Liberty’s Malik Willis, the most athletic quarterback in the draft, could go as high as the Carolina Panthers at No. 6 or the Seattle Seahawks at No. 9. Sometime after that, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett will be chosen. But that’s it for Day 1.
There are some sleeper quarterbacks in the class that could turn into value picks in the later rounds. But only Willis and Pickett are worthy of being first-round selections.
