Before each Ohio State game, Eleven Warriors catches up with a media member who covers the opposing team to get his or her perspective on the Buckeyes' upcoming opponent.
As Michigan State brings a 9-1 record to Ohio State this week, Matt Wenzel, who covers Michigan State for MLive, admits he didn’t see the Spartans having so much success this year. But he says Mel Tucker and Kenneth Walker III have led a “remarkable turnaround” for the team from East Lansing, who still have a chance to win the Big Ten title and make the College Football Playoff if they can beat Ohio State on Saturday.
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| #7 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS |
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9-1 (6-1 B1G) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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NOON – SATURDAY, NOV. 20 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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ABC WATCH ESPN |
What’s led to the Spartans’ surprising excellence, will Tucker be staying in East Lansing for the long haul, what’s enabled Walker to become college football’s leading rusher and will their improvement be enough for them to upset the Buckeyes on Saturday? We get answers to those questions and several more below.
With two weeks to go in the regular season, Michigan State is playing for the Big Ten East lead and a berth in the College Football Playoff. How surprised would you have been to hear that three months ago?
Wenzel: I have plenty of company in being stunned Michigan State is heading to Columbus with a chance to take over first place in the division while in the top 10 of the CFP rankings. The Spartans were underrated heading into the year with a 4.5 over/under win total because people overlooked what an actual offseason, which the program didn’t have last year under a new staff, would mean. Additionally, Mel Tucker did a great job overhauling the roster with transfers and plucking a Heisman Trophy candidate from the portal is quite an accomplishment.
Heading into the season, I thought the Spartans would be a lot better than last year and predicted them to finish the regular season 7-5. Then they won their first eight games. It’s a remarkable turnaround job by Tucker to have them in contention for a conference title and possible spot in the playoff. That’s why he’s probably the leading candidate for national coach of the year.
What have been the keys to Michigan State’s success this season?
Wenzel: Michigan State has been vastly improved on offense and it starts with the Heisman candidate, running back Kenneth Walker III. He leads the nation in rushing and has completely transformed the outlook for a team that averaged only 91.4 rushing yards per game last season and had zero (yes, zero) rushing touchdowns from its running backs. Walker is a game-changer the program sorely lacked and is running behind an improved offensive line.
Walker’s success helps open up a passing game that has been much better. After three straight years of inconsistency at quarterback and too many interceptions, Payton Thorne has stabilized the position with efficiency and the ability to make big-time throws. Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor are one of the best receiver tandems in the nation, although Nailor missed the last two games with an apparent hand injury and it’s unclear when he’ll return.
Defensively, Michigan State remains strong against the run with a deep group up front and improved pass rush. The Spartans have been better overall after giving up a program-record 35.1 points per game last year but the pass defense remains a huge concern because they rank last in the nation in yards allowed through the air.
Mel Tucker has been linked to the head coach opening at LSU, but it’s also been reported that Tucker could be in line for a big contract extension at Michigan State. Do you expect him to stay in East Lansing?
Wenzel: There are reasons LSU would be interested and he has ties to the university after serving as an assistant there under Nick Saban, along with additional SEC experience. Michigan State is apparently working on a 10-year, $95 million contract extension and that’s a pretty good reason for him to stay.
Tucker has a great relationship with new athletic director Alan Haller and basketball coach Tom Izzo, has galvanized the fan base – doesn’t hurt to be the first coach in program history to start 2-0 against Michigan – and is very much appreciated in East Lansing. I could see the temptation to leave for LSU but the flip side is expectations that are much different. The Tigers’ last three coaches all won a national title but the last two were fired and Ed Orgeron is on the way out less than 24 months after winning it all. I think Tucker will stay – at least for now – with the future looking bright, an investment in renovating the football facilities and the chance to do something special at the same school he started his coaching career as a graduate assistant.
Kenneth Walker is the nation’s leading rusher. What makes him so tough to stop?
Wenzel: Walker has patience, vision, balance, strength, speed and unique cutting ability that make him, in my opinion, the best running back in the nation. Just turn on the tape. You can see him take a broken play and turn it into a touchdown. If he gets past the first level – which happens often – he’s a nightmare to tackle in space and has made plenty of defenders look foolish. That’s reflected in him leading the nation in missed tackles forced (82) and yards after contact (1,068), according to Pro Football Focus.
On the other end of the spectrum, Michigan State has allowed more passing yards than any other team in the country. What’s made the Spartans so vulnerable against the pass?
Wenzel: It has been a mostly bend-but-don’t-break approach that was successful in some games, namely wins against Western Kentucky, Indiana and Michigan where stops and forced field goals were critical. However, they’ve been torched through the air and allowed 1,292 yards and eight passing touchdowns in the last three games combined.
Michigan State has a unique situation at cornerback after overhauling the room through the portal. The Spartans’ top four cornerbacks are a trio of transfers in Ronald Williams (Alabama), Chester Kimbrough (Florida) and Marqui Lowery (Louisville), along with true freshman Charles Brantley. Williams (back) and Brantley (shoulder) have played through injuries while Lowery has missed multiple games. Brantley didn’t dress last week and it’s unclear how long he’ll be out.
Any team with a competent quarterback and receivers will look at Michigan State and see a vulnerable secondary, although safety Xavier Henderson has been strong this year. That’s where they’ll continue to attack and I expect Ohio State to do the same.
Reynoldsburg, Ohio native Xavier Henderson is among Michigan State’s top players to watch. (Photo: Nick King/Lansing State Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC)
Aside from Walker, who are the other Michigan State players to watch in this game?
Wenzel: Thorne can sling the ball around and is also a threat with his legs. His top target is Reed, a longtime friend and former middle school teammate, who leads the team with 45 catches for 829 yards and seven touchdowns, along with two punt return touchdowns. If Nailor remains out, look for Tre Mosley and Montorie Foster to continue stepping up in his absence. The Spartans have also featured tight ends more in former running back Connor Heyward (Ohio State fans should know the pedigree) and Purdue transfer Maliq Carr could be a star in the making.
Defensive tackle Jacob Slade’s statistics don’t pop but he’s a constant disrupter in the middle. Defensive ends Jacub Panasiuk and Jeff Pietrowski are tied for the team lead with 5.5 sacks while Henderson is the top player in the secondary.
Ohio State is favored to win this game by 18-20 points. What needs to happen for Michigan State to win this game, and do you think it will?
Wenzel: Michigan State will need Walker to have another big game and keep the Buckeyes on their heels while Thorne attacks deep. They’ll need to find some way to keep C.J. Stroud and what is probably the best group of receivers in the nation from completely carving them up, which is certainly a possibility. After that, some of the usual clichés about winning the turnover battle and playing the cleaner game – then probably just about everything breaking right for the visitors.
Unlike recent years, I think the Spartans are capable of putting up points against the Buckeyes. I just don’t think it’ll be enough and look at this as a situation where Michigan State could hang around but going three-and-out on back-to-back possessions in the third quarter puts the game out of reach. I put in my pick on Tuesday as Ohio State 49, Michigan State 31.
