Ohio State put out their best performance of the year against an offense with a Heisman candidate running back and a quarterback that was averaging near 9.0 YPA at game time. What they did was nothing short of exceptional, and a glimpse of what this team might be capable of in the future.

Much like for the offensive version, I had to cut the grading short due to time constraints.

I did mention in a comment in my last post about how I grade these, which I will post here for reference, for anyone curious:

Here is how I define the total number of points to assign to each play:

Offense

Turnover: -4

Loss of yardage: -3

Unsuccessful - not close: -2

Unsuccessful - close: -1

Successful - close: 0

Successful - semi close: 1

Successful - not close: 2

Big play: 3

Touchdown: 4

Defense

Turnover: 4

Loss of yardage: 3

Unsuccessful - not close: 2

Unsuccessful - semi close: 1

Unsuccessful - close: 0

Successful - close: -1

Successful - not close: -2

Big play: -3

Touchdown: -4

Unsuccessful and successful are based off of definitions for a successful offensive play which is used to calculate success rate, which is:

First down: Gain 50% of yards necessary for a first down

Second Down: Gain 70% of yards necessary for a first down

Third down: Gain 100% of yards necessary for a first down

Basically, I try to map a play to a certain tier, and then distribute points to individuals that lead to the success of that play. For example, let's say Eichenberg gets a sack on a blitz. I might give Eichenberg +1, because he went mostly free, I might give Zach Harrison a +1.5 for beating his blocker, and I might give Smith a -1 for getting knocked down. This means that I have graded +1.5 net points out of +3 total points that I want to award. So, I give the remainder to the play-calling, which would be +1.5. The individuals get graded first, then the coaching staff.

For offense, this ends up working out to pretty close to 5 yards per point, which is nice. I often time just use that as a guideline instead of sticking completely to the guide above. So for a 30 yards play, I might award 4-5 points instead of just 3, as there was likely exceptional individual efforts on that particular play. I feel like the offensive grades are pretty accurate because of it.

For defense, this presents a problem, as it is really hard for exceptional defensive effort to be awarded the same way I award it for offense. I can't give them a point for every 5 yards lost; they would just be in the negative the entire time. My potential solutions so far are to increase the positives for negative plays and turnovers, or increase the points awarded for all unsuccessful offensive plays.

Because of the issue with figuring out a good way to grade the defense, I end up with weird grades that seem pretty harsh.

If you have a solution, please comment about it. I've been wrestling with this all season. Maybe I shouldn't be so rigid with the scale on defense? I don't know.

Now that I have explained the scale in more detail, here is the Michigan State Play-by-Play:

The run defense was not a surprise. Kenneth Walker III is an excellent back, but Ohio State’s defensive line and linebackers have limited every offense they’ve played since the coordinator change (with the exception of Purdue) to significantly less than they typically get on a per-play basis.

The pass defense, however, was shockingly good. They usually give up close to their opponents’ average passing day on a per-play basis. In this game, they held MSU to half of what they normally throw for. That was a level of dominance that is almost never seen, even among the best defenses. Georgia usually only holds opponents to about 70% of their passing averages, so this performance was nothing short of flawless.

Here’s the defensive chart:

Every position group was nearly perfect, with the defensive backs, in particular, having their best game of the year. The players who earned Champion grades for me were Tyreke Smith, Haskell Garrett, Antwuan Jackson, Javonte Jean-Baptiste, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton, Jerron Cage, Tommy Eichenberg, Denzel Burke, Lathan Ransom, Bryson Shaw, Marcus Williamson, Cameron Martinez, and Kourt Williams. Ohio State included Zach Harrison, Taron Vincent, Steele Chambers, Cameron Brown, and Ronnie Hickman, while they excluded Antwuan Jackson, Ty Hamilton, Jerron Cage, and Cameron Martinez.

The defensive line played well, but their scores are low due to their low snap counts. Haskell Garrett certainly stood out to me as the guy who stepped up and played his best football, though Tyreke Smith also had an excellent day. The whole unit got player of the game, but apparently some are not included in that. I don’t understand it personally.

Harrison was close to being a champion and Vincent didn’t have any charted plays for me, but played fine. I may have missed some on Vincent as well on an attempt to keep the total numbers relatively low and reasonable. Still, it’s a bit odd that he played more than anyone else, and still didn’t get charted much. Maybe a bunch of his snaps were after I stopped grading.

I thought Jackson, Hamilton, and Cage all deserved to be named champions due to a couple of big plays, but all of them had just a couple of positives with no negatives. Technically champions, but not super impactful.

The linebackers are a little more simple. Tommy Eichenberg has emerged as the guy next to Steele Chambers in my mind, even though Cody Simon started this game. I don’t know if Simon is out for a long period of time, or if they just didn’t want to take Eichenberg off the field. He was outstanding for the majority of this game. He had a great pass breakup (1Q 4:27) and a tackle for loss with Cage (1Q 5:35) that stood out to me. He also got a couple of tough stops, including a zone read (3Q 13:59) right at the line. Steele Chambers just missed a champion grade from me, and is still the best linebacker on the team. Seeing him take all the snaps at his position is good to see, as he is a massive upgrade from the guys behind him.

The defensive backs were especially exceptional. Denzel Burke had a career day. I thought the incompletion/fumble (1Q 4:23) he caused was the play of the day on defense. He continued to fight for the ball throughout the process, and probably should have been credited with a fumble. He had tight coverage on the play too. On the next drive (1Q 2:31), he had another nice pass breakup, though he did come out with an injury. The good news is that he came back in the next drive, before sitting out the rest of the game due to the enormous lead.

I thought Kourt Williams had his best game in the scarlet and gray as well. In particular, the screen he blew up (3Q 13:28) was flawlessly played, and the tight coverage he showed on a seam route (2Q 1:13) showed what he is capable of. If Hickman goes to the NFL after this year, I think that position is in good hands. Speaking of Hickman, I think he is probably the most consistent player on defense, but is constantly slightly below champion grade. His stability has been so important for the defense, but

I am a little confused as to why Cam Martinez played some deep safety. This is exactly the opposite of what I would have expected them to do. While neither he nor Ransom are particularly great tacklers, Ransom has the better frame for it. Also, he is outstanding in man coverage – why put him in a place where he will rarely be in man coverage? I don’t understand it, though the coaches certainly might have seen something that I have not yet.

What should we be worried about? Depth at linebacker. Simon never came back in after the injury. The backup to Steele Chambers is either Teradja Mitchell or Palaie Gaoteote, and the drop-off is pretty severe. The backup to Tommy Eichenberg is even more severe if Simon is injured for a long period of time. While Cody Simon is serviceable, the guys behind him are Reid Carrico and Ryan Batsch, a walk-on. Cade Kacherski, another walk-on, played quite a bit in blowouts, but looks to be out for the rest of the year. While Carrico was a highly rated recruit, he hasn’t been getting many competitive snaps. Getting Simon healthy is a top priority, and keeping the linebackers healthy as a unit is essential. An injury to either Eichenberg or Chambers could effectively end Ohio State’s title hopes. Having said that, I think Gaoteote could fill in for Chambers after getting some more run in the bowl practices, and Simon would be fine to fill in for Eichenberg assuming he gets healthy.

What should we not be worried about? The run defense. I know that nobody is upset about it, but I have seen talk that Kenneth Walker III might have had a big day rushing if they were in a position to run. I just don’t see it. They will have a tough matchup against Michigan, but it is a matchup that I would be surprised to see them lose.

What should we get excited about? The pass defense. There were no uncontested throws, and Michigan State is genuinely talented at receiver. They couldn’t get anything on the DB’s. They likely have better receivers than Michigan, even with Nailor out. It wasn’t even like Michigan State was a poor passing team; they were the best passing team in the conference on a per-play basis besides Ohio State. This might be a bigger deal than if they had shut down Purdue. This game wasn’t just the best they have played the entire year; it was the best they have played by a massive margin.

I also think the defensive improvement and overall team ceiling as a whole is something to get excited about. It’s hard to believe that this is largely the same unit that got ripped by a mediocre Oregon team. That Oregon team is, at least in my opinion, probably the fifth best team they’ve played so far, and the sixth best on the schedule. It’s stunning how much better this defense has gotten in a couple of in-season months. If the defense keeps playing like this, woof.

If this team is able to get to the playoffs, which is certainly not a guarantee, they will get a lot more time to develop with the bowl practices. For whatever reasons, this is a time of year where a lot of the younger guys will make big jumps. With a team full of young guys learning a new defense on the fly, this is the best opportunity to reach that next level. If they reach it, they will win a national championship.

What does this mean for Michigan? IF the pass defense can replicate anything resembling that performance, I don’t know how Michigan will be able to move the ball. They might not score over 10. That is a colossal IF, as this performance is an extreme outlier right now, so I wouldn’t expect it. In fact, I could see Michigan have a relatively effective day passing the football (think Penn State – lots of yards, but not a ton of points). Michigan has a good run offense, but I don’t think they will be able to lean on it at all; they are going to need to pass in order to stay with Ohio State. This performance reinforces that the Ohio State defense is excellent against the run.

Michigan State’s offense is big play oriented, and was shut down by a defense that doesn’t allow big plays. Michigan is a lot more willing to grind it out. Michigan may have success if they are patient. I don’t think that this game gets into a shootout at all, barring a Tressel-esque preparation routine.

Please feel free to ask me any questions about any of this, or corrections for my work. Thank you for reading!

Archive

Offense vs. Oregon / Defense vs. Oregon

Offense vs. Tulsa / Defense vs. Tulsa

Offense vs. Akron / Defense vs. Akron

Offense vs. Rutgers / Defense vs. Rutgers

Offense vs. Maryland / Defense vs. Maryland

Mid-Season Review

Offense vs. Indiana / Defense vs. Indiana

Offense vs. Penn State / Defense vs. Penn State

Offense vs. Nebraska / Defense vs. Nebraska

Offense vs. Purdue / Defense vs. Purdue

Offense vs. Michigan State 

This series is inspired by Upon Further Review from MgoBlog. If you want to read their latest entry against Maryland, it is located here. They also have a worthwhile film study on Ohio State, located here.