That was nothing short of a murder. After the opening kick-off and a false start penalty, the rest of the gameplan was executed to perfection. The offense marched up and down the field over and over again, sometimes off of big plays, and sometimes with methodical drives. Michigan State had no hope to compete.

For the first time all year, I only graded when the first-string was out there. I have a day job and I don’t have unlimited time to put these together, as much as I may wish that I did. Also, early in the season, having a baseline for what the backups do is nice, as lineups can change throughout the year, and injuries can occur. Now that we know roughly how good the backups are, and now that the lineups have stabilized a bit, I don’t think that it is as crucial to grade the second string.

Here is the play-by-play chart:

This might have been the best offensive game (half) that I’ve ever seen Ohio State play. The only ones that compare off the top of my head are the 59-0 beat down of Wisconsin 2014, the 50-28 game against Cincinnati earlier that year, and the 2018 Michigan game. The Wisconsin game was probably the best of that group, as they couldn’t be stopped on the ground or through the air. They got big plays and could still march down the field. The Cincinnati game might have been a more efficient showing, as the 45 first downs (!) that Ohio State had that game was an NCAA record. The 2018 game was perhaps the most impressive given the circumstances, with Michigan boasting what was, at the time, the best defense since the 2011 Alabama team. Those are legendary games, and this one fits right there with it. By scoring 49 points in the first half, this was a more explosive performance than any of those games.

The execution was outstanding; there were champions all over the board. The play-calling was the best I have charted so far. This score is always which play-caller performs better, as the negatives for Ohio State are perhaps better represented as positives for the opponent. In this game, Ryan Day did whatever he felt like, and it was always the right call. MSU was constantly off-balance. Much of this is the Spartans’ lackluster pass defense, but they really weren’t that bad. They really struggled with the RPOs that Ohio State has been relying on more and more.

Here is the offensive chart:

All of my grades are probably going to seem low because of that performance. Nearly every play was a net positive. Even the plays with someone failing their assignment had Herculean efforts from someone else. The offense was constantly in good positions, and Ohio State had an answer for everything MSU did. The play-calling number was high for a reason, and because of that, some players may have lower positives than expected.

According to my grading, the champions were Dawand Jones, C. J. Stroud, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Julian Fleming, Jeremy Ruckert, and Cade Stover. Ohio State also included Nicholas Petit-Frere, Thayer Munford, Luke Wypler, Paris Johnson Jr, Matt Jones, Miyan Williams, Treveyon Henderson, Master Teague III, Garrett Wilson, Mitch Rossi, and Marvin Harrison Jr. They did not omit any from my list.

The biggest difference is the offensive line, and that makes sense. Most of my grades are for run blocking, with the pass protection metric being a collective grade. Since there weren’t a ton of runs in the game before garbage time (when I stopped grading), they weren’t going to have a ton of graded plays. I keep talking about changing how I do this, but it’s hard to. I could give them a percentage grade for how often they keep Stroud clean, but I don’t love that because not every play is created equal. I just feel bad because even though Fields got sacked a lot, he would hold the ball long enough to where the offensive line’s protection would really stand out, and Stroud never does that. They deserve more accolades than I am giving them.

Also, even though there were a couple of sacks, there weren’t a ton of pressures in the game, and Michigan State ran a fair amount of blitzes. They largely did their job up front, and I don’t have a problem with any of their inclusion. I do want to give extra attention to Dawand Jones though, because he crushed people in this game. His best one that I saw was later in the game, when they started running with Teague (3Q 10:59). He creates a ton of space with his size and strength.

The offensive line protected the likely future Heisman winner with a couple of more wins. Here is his chart:

That was probably Stroud’s best day at Ohio State, with all due respect to all of his other incredible performances. I only charted one inaccurate pass the entire day, which doesn’t make sense. He did everything he was supposed to do, and his increased knowledge of the offense is coming through.

Between the six touchdowns and the throw to Olave in the corner that was not a touchdown, this whole game felt like a Heisman moment, as Herbstreit mentioned on the broadcast. If he can perform against a top-5 Michigan team, I don’t know how he doesn’t win it. I guess if Bryce Young tears apart Georgia’s vaunted defense, we would see him get the Heisman. If Alabama loses that game, though, Stroud will win the Heisman if Ohio State wins out.

As I have posted my observations from each game every week into Stroud’s chart, you can see that I thought he would be a Heisman finalist after the Oregon game. He was advanced then, but he’s just continued to improve. His knowledge of the offense continues to grow. He is better than any other quarterback I have seen this year in college with regard to working through progressions. His anticipation is outstanding. The last few weeks, he’s looked like a senior in his third season starting rather than a redshirt freshman. It’s shocking how in command he looks when he runs the offense. Fields had similar improvements over his first season, going from a guy who couldn’t get off his first read to an outstanding quarterback by the end of the year. In 2020, he got even better. Ryan Day and Corey Dennis are the best at developing quarterbacks in college football. There is a good chance that, if he continues to improve, he will be the first quarterback taken off the board next year in the NFL draft. Of course, none of what I just said will mean anything if they lose to Michigan.

Many people saying he shouldn’t win the Heisman say that he has way too many weapons to throw to, which, fine. That’s fair. Here’s the receiver chart:

Chris Olave got his record setting touchdown catch early in the game (1Q 2:41) in front of the home crowd. I don’t need to say much about his career, as it will be talked about elsewhere, but he is truly one of the best I have ever seen. Still, he is probably the starting receiver least likely to get to 1000 yards (though I imagine he should get there). If the Heisman was sawed into thirds for these three, I don’t think I would be all that upset.  

What should we worry about moving forward? That game was the high point of the season. I cannot see them replicating that masterpiece because I don’t know if I’ve ever seen Ohio State play that well. The competition gets better, too.

What should we not worry about? The running game. While I don’t think most people are thinking along these lines, the running game was average against Michigan State on a per-play basis, and they didn’t lean on the run at all. I don’t think any takeaways are necessary for this game on this particular front. Michigan State had an average-to-below-average pass defense and a good run defense, and the Buckeyes exploited them as such. Also, the best passing offense is essentially impossible to stop, even for the best defenses, while the best rushing offense can be stopped fairly easily by the best defenses. The run wasn’t really needed for this game. Also, even though they count as passes in the stat sheets, the RPO Alert Screens to the wide receivers are just outside runs when the defense focuses too much on the box, or are playing the receivers too softly. When you include those in the rushing game, the stats look a lot different. Those plays, in my opinion, are the difference between the

What should we get excited about? The ceiling for the offense. At its best, this offense is right there with 2020 Alabama and 2019 LSU. A potential Heisman winner at quarterback. Three first round receivers. A potential future first round running back. These are the pieces of an offense that will be nearly impossible to stop. Putting it together game after game is a challenge, but this offense seems to be peaking at the right time.

The total ceiling for the team is also something to get excited about. While Ohio State’s offense after the Nebraska game was still the best in the country, they were nowhere near as good as the offenses of the past few seasons. This meant that, while they would still be able to score on most teams, good defenses could slow them down, and they would have to lean on the defense to win some games. Now that the offense has played at such a prolific level over the past couple of weeks, they might be nearly impossible to stop. If this is the case, the defense doesn’t need to be an elite unit in order to win a national championship. If they can play at the level that they have played at before the Michigan State game, and the offense can continue their trajectory, they are capable of winning it all. If the defense can play like they did against Michigan State for the rest of the year (which I do not expect), I don’t know how anyone stays within double-digits of this team.

What does this mean for Michigan? When I was initially writing this, I wrote down that this was an outlier and that there wasn’t much to take from this game, but that’s not exactly true. Ohio State has regularly scored 40 before halftime this year. I haven’t ever seen an Ohio State team do that with regularity ever. At this point, the clunkers against Penn State and Nebraska seem to be the aberrations rather than the offensive explosions. Also, Purdue and Michigan State both had top-30 defenses when Ohio State played them according to SP+. Michigan State was #16 on defense before the game if I am remembering correctly. These last two games were masterpieces against good defenses. While the defenses only get better, the expanded usage of Miyan Williams and the increased use of RPOs due to Stroud’s improved mastery of the offense has led to the best offense in Ohio State history. There is still a question of whether the offense can scale against elite competition, but I am getting more and more confident that the answer is yes.

Michigan is the best team they have played, especially on defense, so we may find out the answer to this question this week. For now though, I think I can confidently say that this Ohio State offense is easily the best in the country, and they will be able to put up 30-40 points on anybody in the country. I do think that this game will be closer than most Ohio State fans think. Michigan has an excellent defense. If there is a side of the ball that may determine the winner of The Game, though, I think it will be the other one.

Please feel free to ask me any questions about any of this, or corrections for my work. Thank you for reading!

Archive

Offense vs. Oregon / Defense vs. Oregon

Offense vs. Tulsa / Defense vs. Tulsa

Offense vs. Akron / Defense vs. Akron

Offense vs. Rutgers / Defense vs. Rutgers

Offense vs. Maryland / Defense vs. Maryland

Mid-Season Review

Offense vs. Indiana / Defense vs. Indiana

Offense vs. Penn State / Defense vs. Penn State

Offense vs. Nebraska / Defense vs. Nebraska

Offense vs. Purdue / Defense vs. Purdue

This series is inspired by Upon Further Review from MgoBlog. If you want to read their latest entry against Maryland, it is located here. Also, they’ve just posted a film study on Ohio State here that I think is worth reading.