It's early February, but Ohio State's game at Maryland on Thursday already feels do-or-die.
The Buckeyes didn't get the job done on the road against a fellow NCAA Tournament bubble team from the Big Ten, Wisconsin, in a 92-82 loss. Ohio State's record in Quadrant 1 games is now 1-6 this season. OSU doesn't have a win over a ranked team.
Most experts now feature Ohio State as either one of their last four teams in or first four teams out of the NCAA Tournament, as the Buckeyes' race to break their four-year tourney drought reaches the pivotal month of February. Maryland holds an 8-13 overall record and 1-9 mark in Big Ten play, and OSU's next five games after it takes on the Terrapins include No. 2 Michigan, No. 10 Michigan State, No. 18 Virginia and a rematch with Wisconsin. A home tilt with USC is the only spot where the Buckeyes will be favorites.
The margin for error is slim to none as Ohio State enters the final full month of the regular season.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
It seems all the most prominent analysts have Ohio State straddling the cutoff to make the NCAA Tournament.
| Overall Record | 14-7 |
| Home | 10-2 |
| Road | 3-4 |
| NET Ranking | 40th |
| Q1 Record | 1-6 |
| Q2 Record | 3-1 |
| Strength of Schedule | 33rd |
As of Tuesday, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Buckeyes as one of his last four teams in, joining USC, San Diego State and Texas. FOX's Mike DeCourcy and CBS Sports each place them a rung below that as one of the first four teams out of the Big Dance. UCLA, which Ohio State beat, and Indiana, which Ohio State will play, are alongside the Buckeyes in the first four out category by DeCourcy's projections.
Ohio State's loss to Wisconsin and the layoff since have dropped it from 37th to 40th in the NCAA's NET rankings. The Buckeyes' lone Quad 1 victory came at Northwestern, a 10-12 team this season but ranked 70th in the NET, and any road game against a team in the top 75 is considered Quad 1. But it certainly doesn't stand out compared to the “best” wins on other teams' résumé's. The highest-ranked team in the NET OSU holds a win over this season is UCLA, which is 43rd, but that was only a Quad 2 win since it was a home game. Only games against the NET top 30 are considered Quad 1 at home.
Maryland, ranked 170th in the NET, barely makes the cutoff for a Quad 2 game, being on the road. But Ohio State's upcoming matchups with the Wolverines, Cavaliers and Spartans will all present Quad 1 opportunities. Three more arrive among the Buckeyes' final four regular-season games, those being against AP No. 12 Purdue, Iowa and Indiana.
Of the 101 bracket projections compiled by The Bracket Matrix, 67 have Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament. It's a brutal schedule to close the season, but the Buckeyes need to claim several more victories from it to go dancing.
| Team | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 10–1 | 20–1 |
| Illinois | 10–1 | 19–3 |
| Nebraska | 9–2 | 20–2 |
| Michigan State | 9–2 | 19–3 |
| Purdue | 8–3 | 18–4 |
| Wisconsin | 8–3 | 16–6 |
| UCLA | 8–4 | 16–7 |
| Iowa | 6–4 | 16–5 |
| Ohio State | 6–5 | 14–7 |
| Indiana | 6–6 | 15–8 |
| USC | 6–6 | 17–6 |
| Washington | 4–7 | 12–10 |
| Minnesota | 3–8 | 10–12 |
| Northwestern | 2–9 | 10–12 |
| Rutgers | 2–10 | 9–14 |
| Maryland | 1–9 | 8–13 |
| Penn State | 1–10 | 10–12 |
| Oregon | 1–10 | 8–14 |
Big Ten Outlook
Just as Ohio State is firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, the Buckeyes are also battling along the cutoff line for a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament, which goes to the top eight teams in the conference.
The Buckeyes are a half-game back of Iowa for eighth place in the Big Ten and half a game ahead of both Indiana and USC, which are tied for 10th. The Hawkeyes play at Washington on Wednesday; a win will place them half a game ahead of Ohio State for the eighth and final double bye, while a loss will put them half a game behind.
A first-round bye is all but assured for Ohio State, as those go to the top 14 teams in the Big Ten, and the Buckeyes are 4.5 games ahead of 15th-place Rutgers. Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska, all with 9-2 conference records or better, are leading the race for the triple bye to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament.
Victory over Maryland on Thursday is necessary. Then, Ohio State can enter the grueling back stretch of its schedule with ambitions of stages it hasn't reached in four years.
