Let's assume both Ohio State and LSU win their respective conference titles.
It largely depends on how the playoff rankings come out this week, but LSU will have ranked wins over:
- Georgia (2 loss, somewhere in the top 10 still, probably)
- Alabama (2 loss, probably on the edge of the top 10)
- Auburn (3 loss, but I'm sure the committee will push them up a bit to that edge of the top 10)
- Florida (2 loss, but almost definitely top 10)
Ohio State will have ranked wins over:
- Wisconsin x2, after a third loss will likely be somewhere in the top 20
- TTUN (3 loss, but hopefully still in the top 20)
- Cincinnati (would be helpful if they could win their conference title this weekend)
- Penn State (likely a top 10 win)
Some other factors to consider:
- Ohio State dominated all their opponents and the computers have effectively unanimously ranked them #1
- Ohio State has both an elite offense AND defense
- All three non-conference opponents we played are playing in their conference title games this weekend, while LSU played an FCS team, a 4 loss Utah State team, and a 5 loss Georgia Southern team. They did play Texas which might give them some credit, but as we saw, Texas is actually really bad.
However, I'm worried that the committee will value LSU's top wins more than ours, setting us up in a semi-final with Clemson, which, okay, we probably have to play them at some point anyway, but I feel like the #1 seed's opponent will likely be an easier path.