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Know Thy Opponent (Statistical Analysis of THE Game)

+10 HS
Buckeye_engineer's picture
November 26, 2019 at 10:18pm
8 Comments
 
Last year I put together a statistical analysis comparing OSU and UM.  I came away with thinking that OSU would win the game. 
This year I feel much better not only from watching the games but looking in depth at a few of the numbers. I also preface my post with a quote from Woody Hayes, "Statistics always remind me of fellow who drowned in a river where the average depth was only three feet."
First chart I'm showing is comparison of UM with Wiscy and PSU.  Very similar numbers for all three opponents.  UM lost to both of these teams but both were away games.  OSU stats included to show they're a step above the best in the division.
Next graph I'm showing is the UM rushing defense.  They played two teams that were ranked in the top for rushing yards per game and let them both have field days,  Army and Wisconsin.  While many think UM has turned the corner since the PSU halftime could it be they've yet to face another explosive run offense since early in the season?  Also as stated in last year's post you have to go back many years to find that the winner of The game didn't also have the most team rushing yards.  I think OSU is set to have their own Field(s) day on Saturday.  

In continuing to analyze the run here is the UM rushing offense.  

To be fair they played PSU (#4 ranked defense) and performed pretty well but you see a definite trend (as you'd expect) with better rushing defense the lower yard total.  OSU has the 5th ranked rushing defense and had they played their starters most of the second half all year I think we could make an argument they'd be number 1 in that statistic.

There really wasn't a trend for the UM passing attack but the best passing defense they played all year was Notre Dame (#3) and held them to 134 yards in the air.  UM only threw it 14 times though as they gained 303 on the ground.  OSU has the number one overall pass defense in yards/game at 126.2.  

I like what Ryan Day said before the Wiscy game, he hopes the weather is terrible as IT WILL NOT MATTER.  Saturday can't come soon enough as it's my favorite time of the year.  GO BUCKS!

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