"Statistics always remind me of fellow who drowned in a river where the average depth was only three feet.”  Woody Hayes

I'm a big fan of college football as well as analyzing data to find a trend and/or make a prediction.  If I came away with the impression UM was going to win I wouldn't make this post.  :)  Enjoy...

UM plays worse on the road versus home.  You'd expect this but would you expect almost 20 points less offensively and 100 yards less rushing?  I included their opponents rankings just to show that the competition is somewhat similar.  One thing to note is the lesser rushing yards is against a better defense when they've played away.  The yellow in the chart highlights the major differences.  

Next chart shows OSU playing better at home than the road.  The road stats are skewed for the loss at Purdue.  But OSU gives up less points and and plays better defense at home against similarly ranked rushing/passing teams.  After last week's defensive meltdown I expect OSU to play one of their best defensive games.  Partly because of being at home and other part being the offense they are playing.  

OSU and UM have played 6 common opponents this year.  If we were to take all six games and compare them we have this.   OSU gains the offensive advantage when compare OSU home games versus the UM road games.

Next analyze UM passing defense and compare to how they stack up against offenses in terms of rankings.  Best passing offense UM has played has been SMU.  There's a definite trend for these games in that the better the offensive passing ranking in yards per game the more yards gained.  This is generally what you expect to see and makes reading these graphs easier.  I think OSU gets their passing yards in this game from this graph and from watching Indiana drive down the field with a similar style offense last week.

The UM rushing defense is all over the place.  There is no real statistical correlation between rushing offense ranking versus the yards given up.  I got tired of looking up old game stats but for last many years the team that won this game had the most rushing yards.  I could see that theme changing if UM locks down the run and Bucks go pass happy down the field as Buckeyes will put up the points.  The last two games the UM defense has given up 190 rushing yards against Indiana and then 193 yards the week before against Rutgers.  Nice little trend they are establishing.  OSU has a better ranked rushing attack than both those teams and I look forward to a rested Mike Weber running like Forrest Gump.

OSU passing defense hasn't looked that good this year from the eye test but take a look at the trend created.  Upward sloping to the left with the increased opponent passing strength.  UM is in the lower third of the opponents that OSU has played in terms of passing yards per game.  OSU has also played better at home for passing defense.  I'm not as worried about UM's passing game.  However I have watched enough of UM football this year to know that Shea can run the ball down the field when nobody is open.  Probably needs a spy and the spy needs to have a faster 40 time than me.  (kidding)

OSU rushing defense is also better at home.  UM is ranked 23rd in the running game and OSU will need to keep them under 200 yards similar to how they played against rushing yards per game leaders #27 Tulane (100 yards) and #28 Nebraska (184 yards).  Can't have a total meltdown similar to Maryland and think because of the bounce back from that game and the game being played at home will help to keep UM running game in check.

I don't have a score prediction but I think the Buckeyes win.  I'm hoping for good weather (no rain) and a deafening crowd.  I'm ready to see Urban looking jacked on the sidelines wearing a shirt that says "I suffer from headaches and Harbaugh suffers from ME"

GO BUCKS!