Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State Closes the Gap with Louisville
Saturday's night game was fun as hell for Ohio State fans, but I don't suspect it was quite "exciting." For that matter, I don't think the entire weekend was that exciting. Alabama won by 10 points, which is basically a four-touchdown win for any other team, given Alabama's defense. Clemson, Michigan, Washington, Louisville, and Ohio State—which, to the college football playoff selectors reading Eleven Warriors, round out the real top six teams in the country—won by combined margins of 293-40. Chalk won the day.
My favorite trend at the top of poll concerns the distance between Louisville and Ohio State. Louisville led Ohio State by 133 points after the Penn State loss. That gap shrunk to 55 points last week. Now, Louisville has just a 10-point lead on Ohio State.
My hunch is the typical AP voter is beginning to "sell" his/her stock in Louisville as it's becoming apparent it has no viable path to the playoff. I mentioned this last week. Clemson crushed Syracuse and hosts Pittsburgh next week. A win over Pittsburgh sends Clemson back to the ACC Championship Game. Louisville needs Clemson to lose its two remaining ACC games (Pittsburgh, at Wake Forest) to get to the conference championship game and, ostensibly, the playoff.
Meanwhile, Ohio State's path to the playoff looks the same as it did the Sunday after the game in Happy Valley. Only Michigan could screw it up by wanging a game between now and the season finale in Columbus. In that scenario, Penn State goes to Indianapolis no matter Ohio State running the table.
No "Peer Effect" in Penn State's Ranking
I should note this is not how anyone should approach a scientific enterprise, but I do have a hypothesis that you will struggle to convince me is not true.
I'm convinced there's a large subset of AP voters that pattern their polls on the playoff rankings. Consider this a kind of "social cue", or "peer effect." The playoff committee releases its rankings and AP voters, longing to be "cool" with what the playoff committee deems "popular", adopt the committee's consensus for a particular team as their own. The fun part is trying to find who these voters are in any given year.
Texas A&M would have been a great case to test my hypothesis. Its ranking at No. 4 in the first playoff rankings was patently absurd. Its best win is either the season-opener against a UCLA team that is now 3-6, a 13-point win over an Auburn team that is punching way above its weight right now, or the 19-point loss to Alabama. Take your pick. Should A&M have slaughtered a bad Mississippi State team, we might have seen a whole slew of No. 4 votes in the AP to follow. Consider that Texas A&M received no votes at No. 4 last week.
However, the Aggies wanged its game in Starkville so Penn State is the next best test case. Penn State has played well the past few weeks and has that big upset of Ohio State. However, the AP voters had been reticent to take the bait. It was No. 20 last week and, now, No. 12 this week.
The AP Poll shows no evidence of any peer effect influencing Penn State's rise to No. 12. Only four voters (Jimmy Burch, Ed Daigneault, Robert Gagliardi, Brian Howell) ranked Penn State at exactly No. 12. Since Penn State's standard deviation in the poll is about four, it's interesting to note that 24 voters (almost 40% of all voters) have Penn State ranked at No. 16 or below (i.e. a standard deviation below its poll rank). It even has two votes at No. 23 from Michael Bonner and Chris Murray.
Put another way, most AP voters are balking at Penn State's playoff ranking even as the AP Poll consensus for Penn State matches that ranking.
Penn State's surge to No. 12 reflects a general trend upward. Losses ahead of it (e.g. Texas A&M, Nebraska, Florida, Baylor) explain some of this. Penn State also has a lot of voters on its bandwagon. Penn State has nine No. 9 votes, a No. 8 vote from Rob Long, and a No. 7 vote from Josh Kendall.
It's Okay to Rank USC
One of this feature's recurring themes concerns why some programs always get passes. For example, I've singled out Ole Miss twice already as a team that has to try particularly hard to suck its way out the AP Top 25. This generally holds for most SEC programs, especially in the West.
This time, I'm curious why most AP voters haven't forgiven USC already. The Trojans have won five straight after starting the season 1-3.
This might reflect a general pessimism about the Pac-12 this year. For example, Washington State is undefeated after starting the season 0-2 (with even an FCS loss) but finally cracked the top 25 last week. Likewise, USC had a rough start but has rattled off five straight. It even has a win over Colorado, the Pac-12 South front-runner.
However, the Trojans appear on just 16 ballots. It's highest spot on any ballot is No. 14 (Jeff Miller). It has two No. 16s (Patrick Brown, Sam McKewon) and a No. 19 (Josh Kendall) on top of that. Its 12 remaining votes are scattered in the twenties.
Whatever you make of USC's start, comically bad as it was, USC is a different team right now. It's certainly a different team than the LSU and Florida State squads that have the same record (or worse in LSU's case) but do appear in the top 25.
Other Peculiar Observations
- No. 11 West Virginia is the highest-ranked team to not appear on any ballot. Josh Kendall left the Mountaineers off his ballot.
- Minnesota appears on two ballots at No. 25 (Joe Dubin, Matt Porter).
- Jon Wilner is responsible for Louisville's lowest vote (No. 8). He also has Arkansas at No. 13. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Scott Wolf has Louisville at No. 4. He's also the guy that has Michigan at No. 1.
- Eric Hansen still believes in Houston. He has the Cougars at No. 17.
