Ohio State takes the floor in the Big Dance for the first time in four years on Thursday.
The No. 8 seed Buckeyes are set to face No. 9 seed TCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, with a second-round appearance and likely matchup against No. 1 overall seed Duke on the line.
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There are several parallels between how the season played out for Ohio State and TCU. Both were bubble teams at the end of February before both cruised into the tournament with a winning streak in March. Both came close to pulling upsets in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments, the Buckeyes against NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed Michigan, and the Horned Frogs against No. 4 seed Kansas. The Jayhawks, coincidentally, are a potential Sweet 16 matchup for both teams should they upset Duke.
#9 TCU
Horned frogs
It’ll all go down at 12:15 p.m. Thursday on CBS. Here are five things to know about TCU.
Also Coming in Hot
Ohio State answered a blowout loss in a critical game against Iowa with a four-game winning streak, kick-started by a win over then-No. 8 Purdue, before it fell to Michigan after a vengeful Big Ten Tournament win over the Hawkeyes. TCU was also hovering on the NCAA Tournament bubble line before starting its scorching streak.
Sitting with a 13-9 record on Feb. 6, the Horned Frogs won nine of 10 games before dropping their Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal game against the Jayhawks. That included upsets over then-No. 5 Iowa State and then-No. 10 Texas Tech. They were on a six-game winning streak ahead of their matchup with Kansas, which beat TCU by a mere five points.
TCU shot just 43.1% from the field during that final 11-game run, while its opponents shot 46.3% with a slightly higher 3-point percentage, too. But the Horned Frogs found success in the turnover generation and rebounding departments, creating extra possessions with 55 more rebounds and 32 more takeaways than their opponents during that stretch.
That speaks to a trend for TCU’s whole season. It has middling shooting percentage numbers on both offense and defense, but ranks 37th out of 365 teams nationally in blocked shots per game (4.5) and 35th in opposing turnovers per game (13.8). The latter number aids in placing TCU at 68th nationally in defensive rating, surrendering just 102.3 points per 100 possessions. The Horned Frogs are also 57th in offensive rebounds per game (12.4) and 82nd in steals per game (7.7).
“Really good team,” Jake Diebler said on Sunday. “We’ve started already diving into the numbers. If you guys will let me get out of here at a decent time, I’ll be able to get to work on some film (laughs). Good defense, Coach (Jamie) Dixon has been around a long time and won a lot of games. They had success in a good conference, and they’ve won a lot of games here down the stretch of the season.”
Boxing out on the defensive glass and securing the basketball on offense will be critical for Ohio State while facing its first-round foe.
Packing A Punch
Sophomore forward David Punch is TCU’s best weapon. He averages a team-high 14.3 points per game, adding a team-high 6.7 rebounds and two blocks per contest.
Despite standing at just 6-foot-7, Punch provides excellent rim protection and great production on the interior on offense. He shoots 55.4% on 2-point attempts and has the best defensive rating of anyone on his squad, yielding just 99 points per 100 team possessions. Ohio State’s best defensive rating, for reference, is Ivan Njegovan at 107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Punch can distribute the ball a touch, too, with 2.1 assists per game. He packs... a punch at 245 pounds and will be a strong test for Ohio State freshman forward Amare Bynum, who’s improved defensively as this season has gone on.
Spread Out Production
TCU has four players averaging at least 10 points per game and seven averaging at least eight, and their rebounding and assist numbers are similarly distributed. Where that by-committee effort actually excels is on defense, however, as Ohio State allows 5.9 more points per 100 possessions (108.2) than the Horned Frogs.
Freshman Xavier Edmunds, who starts at center for TCU, picks up 12.6 points per game on an efficient 57.2% from the field. He trails Punch for second on the team in points, rebounds (6.6) and blocks (0.9) per game. The Horned Frogs’ top producer in the backcourt is senior guard Jayden Pierre, a Providence transfer who picks up 10.5 points and 2.7 assists per game.
Junior point guard Brock Harding – a former Iowa Hawkeye – is the maestro of TCU’s offensive symphonies. He laps his teammates in assists per game at 5.7, good for third-most in the Big 12. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 3.8 to 1, and he adds a team-high 1.7 steals per contest to fuel the turnover advantage that’s precipitated the Horned Frogs’ success. Harding tacks on eight points per game.
Backup guard Liutaurus Lelevicius provides TCU’s top 3-point threat, shooting 39.7% beyond the arc this season, but as a team, the Horned Frogs are a pedestrian 235th nationally in 3-point percentage at 33.1%. Ohio State, by comparison, is 65th at 36%.
When the Buckeyes’ backcourt tandem of Bruce Thornton and John Mobley Jr. is on – and it often has been of late – it is among the best in the nation. That provides an edge, but the depth of TCU’s production, even if it usually only rolls eight players deep, could provide one to the Horned Frogs.
“I think we have one of the best backcourts in the country,” Diebler said. “I also think we’ve got some really good pieces outside of our backcourt that have stepped up throughout the course of the season in big-time moments. So what we’ve got to do is, we’ve got to trust each other on both sides of the ball, like we have been. But make no mistake, it gives you a sense of confidence as a coach when you go into a game, when you have this level of guard play on your team.”
Seasoned Head Coach
Jamie Dixon will lead TCU into battle against Ohio State on Thursday. Photo credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images
As Diebler pointed out above, TCU is coached by a veteran, Jamie Dixon. Dixon has 23 years of experience as a head coach to Diebler’s two. There have been peaks and valleys in Dixon’s career.
The first 13 of those years came at Pitt from 2003-2016, where he compiled a 328-123 record. He led the Panthers to an NCAA Tournament berth each of his first 11 seasons there, including three Sweet 16 appearances and one Elite Eight in 2009. He won Big East championships in four of those campaigns before Pitt joined the ACC in 2013.
Dixon’s Panthers never returned to the Sweet 16 after that Elite Eight appearance. They missed the 2012 and 2015 NCAA Tournaments, and after a first-round tourney exit in 2016, Dixon took the open head coaching job at TCU, his alma mater. His record hasn’t been as strong with the Horned Frogs, at 198-137 after 10 years with the program.
This year’s Big Dance bid is Dixon’s fifth in his decade overseeing the Horned Frogs, who have yet to reach a Sweet 16 under his guidance. They won an NIT championship in 2017. After a 16-16 season in 2024-25, it’s been a solid bounce-back year for his squad to make the NCAA Tournament again, but Ohio State will aim to make it a brief return.
A Bit Undersized
TCU’s strong defensive metrics and rebounding margins come as a bit of a surprise, as none of its core contributors are above 6-foot-8, the tallest being Edmunds at that height. But he and Punch both have the strength and athleticism to challenge shots inside, and starting small forward Micah Robinson offers plus length at the 3, standing 6-foot-6. He’s picked up 10.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game this season, overtaking Lelevicius in the starting lineup in mid-February.
The top nine defenders for TCU all have a better defensive rating than Ohio State’s best, but the Buckeyes hold a large efficiency advantage player-to-player on offense. Thornton’s rating is 140.6, which would top the Horned Frogs’ team, and Mobley, Njegovan and Brandon Noel would all be second behind Lelevicius.
Ohio State will need production from its frontcourt, namely Bynum and starting center Christoph Tilly. Get quality paint touches to challenge the length and spacing of TCU’s defense, take care of the basketball and hit the glass hard. If the Buckeyes accomplish those objectives, they have the firepower to advance in the Big Dance.
