Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
The Cardinals Soar
Louisville was the biggest story of the weekend. Defying expectations from odds makers, the Cardinals routed the Seminoles in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium. The 43-point loss is third worst by an AP No. 2 team in the history of the poll (No. 1: a 48-0 Army No. 1 win over No. 2 Notre Dame). The defensive outing for the Seminoles marked the first time in the program's history it conceded 60 points in a game.
| Voter | Affiliation |
|---|---|
| Brett McMurphy | ESPN |
| Ed Daigneault | Republican-American (Waterbury, CT) |
| Ed Johnson | Albuquerque Journal |
| Jimmy Burch | Fort Worth Star-Telegram |
| Joey Knight | Tampa Bay Times |
| Josh Kendall | The State (Columbia, SC) |
The AP selectors rewarded Louisville for this dominant performance. The Cardinals picked up No. 1 votes from Brett McMurphy, Ed Daigneault, Ed Johnson, Jimmy Burch, Joey Knight, and Josh Kendall.
However, Louisville is still 36 points behind the weekend's other big winner, Ohio State. This is true despite Louisville picking up two more AP No. 1 votes and despite arguably having the more impressive performance of the two.
The truth is the AP voters just like Ohio State a bit more than Louisville at the moment. Ohio State is ranked No. 4 or below on just five ballots. Its lowest spot is two No. 5 votes from Ed Daigneault and Scott Wolf. Louisville is No. 4 or below on 14 ballots. It even appears as low as No. 7 (Steve Batterson) and No. 8 (Matt Charboneau).
There are any number of explanations for this. Ohio State might be more of a known commodity right now than Louisville with more benefit of the doubt. Voters might be more suspicious of Florida State now, perhaps treating the comeback against Ole Miss as a canary in the coal mine.
Whatever the case, Louisville has plenty of opportunities ahead. That visit to Houston later in the season looks all the more intriguing.
Ohio State "Back" Like It Never Left
Ohio State was the weekend's other big winner. Ohio State was favored on the road against Oklahoma, unlike Louisville. However, it more than met expectations with a 45-24 win that showcased the talent differential between itself and a playoff participant from last year.
| Voter | Affiliation |
|---|---|
| Eric Hansen | South Bend Tribune |
| Jon Wilner | Mercury News (San Jose, CA) |
| Pete DiPrimio | Fort Wayne News-Sentinel |
| Sam McKewon | Omaha World-Herald |
The Buckeyes were also beneficiaries of Florida State's loss. That created opportunity for Ohio State to solidify its claim as the new AP No. 2.
It also acquired four AP No. 1 votes from Eric Hansen, Jon Wilner, Pete DiPrimio, and Sam McKewon. Do note these were not all AP No. 1 votes that Florida State had last week. Only DiPrimio gave Ohio State an AP No. 1 from Florida State. Hansen, McKewon, and Wilner had Alabama as No. 1 last week.
Make sure to mention that last tidbit to any of you readers who, for reasons, decide to call into Finebaum's radio show.
Why Is Ole Miss Still Ranked? (Part Deux)
I fear this might be a theme that recurs in these features every season. Last season, I noted that Ole Miss weirdly keeps getting the benefit of the doubt from AP voters despite lacking an objective reason for those good graces.
Here is a passage from one such installment of the Poll Watch.
Memphis beat then no. 13 Ole Miss by two touchdowns on Saturday. This was one of the great upsets of the season. It was also the second loss for Ole Miss, which was no. 3 after an upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa before the Gators handed Ole Miss' hat to it in Gainesville.
Memphis is undefeated and pretty damn good [...] but it does not answer why no. 24 Ole Miss is still ranked this week. Voters should be weary of allowing the SEC to have its cake and eat it too, given recent struggles for the SEC (and especially the SEC West) in January.
Change a few proper nouns, the Alabama outcome, and the No. 23 to No. 24 and the point remains basically the same almost a year later. Ole Miss is 1-2 with just one win over Wofford. It blew major first half leads in epic fashion against Florida State and Ole Miss. What about its résumé suggests a No. 23 ranking?
| Rank | Voter | Affiliation |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Andy Greder | St. Paul Pioneer Press |
| 14 | Josh Kendall | The State (Columbia, SC) |
| 14 | Matt Porter | Palm Beach Post |
| 14 | Robert Cessna | Bryan-College Station Eagle |
| 14 | Scott Wolf | Los Angeles Daily News |
| 15 | Brian Howell | Buffzone.com |
Some of these rankings are rather ludicrous given Ole Miss' résumé to date. These high votes are an important reason why Ole Miss is still ranked despite appearing on just 48% of the ballots in the AP Poll.
Ole Miss will host Georgia on Saturday. Georgia, a team with zero AP votes and close call wins over Nicholls(!) and Missouri, might actually improve its ranking on Sunday.
Other Peculiar Observations
- The AP Poll says hello to North Dakota State after its win at Iowa. The Bison have 74 points in the AP Poll, which nominally makes it the AP No. 28 team. It has 74 more points than Georgia. If you know any Georgia die-hards, bring that to their attention and see how they react.
- Jon Wilner, a regular in this feature, deserves at least some mention here because his ballot is amazing as usual. For example, his ballot features Wisconsin, which struggled to beat Georgia State, at No. 6!
- San Diego State is quietly having an amazing season out west. Its upset win over California looks better now that the Golden Bears beat the Longhorns on Saturday night. Sam McKewon even has the Aztecs as high as No. 13.
- Throw up your "U"s and queue up your "Seventh Floor Rap" because the Hurricanes are quietly rising on the ballot. The Hurricanes are the AP No. 15 and appear as high as No. 8 (Sam McKewon).
