Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State's Lead Down to 12 Points
Ohio State added to its all-time record for weeks atop the AP College Football Poll with a 38-10 win over Penn State. Ohio State even covered the spread this time! Voters were even likely to reward Ohio State for such a game on Saturday night. The Buckeyes gained 17 points from last week to its overall point tally.
However, this belies the true status of Ohio State as no. 1 team in the country. Its lead on no. 2 shrunk from 21 points last week to just 12 points this week.
Last week, I mentioned this was a combination of two things. One, while Ohio State (still) has more than twice as many no. 1 votes as no. 2 Baylor, those that do not have Ohio State at no. 1 are more skeptical of Ohio State than those who do not have Baylor at no. 1 are skeptical of Baylor.
Basically, the no. 6 votes for Ohio State are equivalent no. 3 votes for Baylor. Baylor has a greater concentration of its votes in the top six than Ohio State.
Second, Baylor, to its credit, is obliterating the chump teams it plays. Ohio State has not had a similar run to match the preseason expectations. This will naturally push Ohio State down ballots and push Baylor up ballots.
We should also give Baylor credit for another rout on Saturday, this time over West Virginia. West Virginia handed Baylor its only regular season loss last week.
Ohio State fans should brace for Baylor to leapfrog it in the next few weeks, all things equal. Baylor has never been the AP no. 1 team in the country. Prior to 2013, its highest AP ranking was an appearance at no. 4 in 1937. Voters tend to like bright, shiny, and new things as well. Baylor as new no. 1 would make for great publicity for the AP before the College Football Playoff poll supplants it in importance.
Why Is Ole Miss Still Ranked?
Memphis beat then no. 13 Ole Miss by two touchdowns on Saturday. This was one of the great upsets of the season. It was also the second loss for Ole Miss, which was no. 3 after an upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa before the Gators handed Ole Miss' hat to it in Gainesville.
Memphis is undefeated and pretty damn good. In fact, the top of its league is pretty damn good. No. 18 Memphis, No. 21 Houston, and No. 22 Temple are each 6-0. Following Boise State's humiliating loss on Friday night, the Group of Five spot in the New Year's Six is assuredly going to the highest-ranked American Athletic Conference team.
This is fine, but it does not answer why no. 24 Ole Miss is still ranked this week. Voters should be weary of allowing the SEC to have its cake and eat it too, given recent struggles for the SEC (and especially the SEC West) in January.
It would be fallacious inference to criticize the AP collectively for the behavior of its voters. However, Ole Miss appears on 46 of 60 ballots. Chadd Cripe is the most sympathetic of Ole Miss' recent struggles. He has Ole Miss at no. 17 (and even has Memphis at no. 7). Steve Batterson and Mitch Vingle put Ole Miss at no. 19. Every other appearance for Ole Miss is in the 20s.
This Week's Big Loser: Texas A&M
Ole Miss had the biggest loss in the polls, falling 645 points from no. 13 last week to no. 24 this week. Texas A&M's home loss to Alabama cost 432 points, the second biggest fall of the week. However, the Aggies moved from no. 9 to no. 15, a fall of just six spots in the AP consensus.
Again, only the SEC is allowed to have its cake and eat it too.
The nature of Texas A&M's move down the rankings suggests a combination of curious factors. One, Texas A&M was unlikely to slide that far down the rankings given how high it was on some ballots. For example, Jon Wilner voted Texas A&M at no. 2 last week and has the Aggies at no. 11 this week. Doug Lesmerises voted Texas A&M down eight spots from no. 4 last week. John Adams voted Texas A&M down nine spots from a similar no. 4 ranking last week.
Josh Kendall, who was responsible for A&M's lone no. 1 vote last week, slid the Aggies from no. 1 to no. 16 this week. That's quite the tumble down the ballot, but the Aggies were unlikely to fall that far down many ballots given how high they were last week.
Still, others who did not have Texas A&M ranked that high last week interpreted an ugly home loss to Alabama as more indicative of Alabama's quality than an indictment against Texas A&M. For example, Jay Binkley moved Texas A&M down five spots from no. 11 last week. Michael Lev had Texas A&M at no. 10 last week and at no. 15 this week. Rustin Dodd constitutes the smallest movement for Texas A&M down any ballot. He had Texas A&M at no. 8 last week and no. 11 this week.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Tim Griffin is responsible for Ohio State's gain in no. 1 votes. He previously had Ohio State at no. 2 last week and Baylor at no. 1. Baylor is his no. 2 team this week.
- Iowa is quietly surging up the polls, but no voter is inclined to let them into the top ten yet. In fact, no vote for Iowa was higher than no. 10.
- Michigan had as much of a "forgivable loss" as a team could have, given the circumstances. That doesn't make it any less hilarious, but voters collectively docked the Wolverines just 280 points for failing to punt a football with nine seconds left. Michigan shares a no. 16 ranking with Texas A&M this week. The Wolverines even have a no. 7 vote and no. 8 vote from Josh Kendall and, naturally, Jon Wilner this week. It also has a handful of no. 11 votes, which are higher than the consensus no. 12 position last week.
