Which Ohio State teams from the BCS and CFP era (1998-today) that did not make college football's postseason tournament would have benefited the most from expanded playoffs?
With talk of the College Football Playoff expanding to 24 teams heating up, let's take a look at the Buckeye teams who were on the outside looking in and could have made a legitimate run at a national championship had the postseason not been limited to only two or four teams.
Honorable Mentions
Since 1998, 13 Ohio State teams failed to qualify for the postseason tournament, but would have under an expanded playoff format. Narrowing the field to five teams was difficult, and arguments could certainly be made for the 2017 and 2010 Buckeyes to crack the list. But which of the five teams below would you remove?
Other Ohio State teams that didn't make the cut were: 2023, 2021, 2017, 2009, 2008 and 2000.
No. 5: 2005
Record: 9-2
Final regular season ranking: No. 4 BCS
Jim Tressel’s fifth Ohio State team lost two games by a combined six points. A heartbreaking 25-22 home loss to No. 2 Texas in the second game of the season and a 17-10 defeat at Penn State were the only blemishes keeping the Buckeyes from playing for a national title.
Troy Smith, Antonio Pittman, Ted Ginn Jr., Santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez provided plenty of offensive firepower, while A.J. Hawk, Anthony Schlegel, Bobby Carpenter, Donte Whitner, Malcolm Jenkins and Ashton Youboty anchored a loaded defense. How would things have played out if this team had access to an expanded playoff?
Four-Team CFP
As the No. 4-ranked team in the final BCS standings, Ohio State would have faced No. 1 USC in the semifinal. Pete Carroll’s Trojans were loaded and formidable, but their swagger could have opened the door for Tressel’s disciplined Buckeyes. It would have been viewed as an upset on the level of Ohio State’s 2002 win over Miami, but it was certainly within reach.
If the Buckeyes pulled it off, a rematch would have awaited them in the championship game. The other semifinal would have featured No. 2 Texas against No. 3 Penn State. Ohio State came painfully close against both teams during the regular season and could very realistically have walked away with a national championship in a second meeting.
12-Team CFP
As the No. 4-ranked team, Ohio State would have received a first-round bye and faced the winner of No. 5 Oregon and No. 12 LSU.
Mike Bellotti’s Ducks featured a dangerous offense, while Les Miles’ Tigers ranked third nationally in scoring defense. Either matchup would have posed a challenge, but Ohio State had enough talent to beat both.
The semifinal likely would still have featured USC unless the Trojans were upset by the winner of No. 8 Miami and No. 9 Auburn. Southern California would have been a difficult hurdle, but not an impossible one.
The national championship matchup could have come against No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Penn State, No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Georgia, No. 10 Virginia Tech or No. 11 West Virginia. With Vince Young at quarterback, a rematch with Texas probably would have been the most likely outcome.
24-Team CFP
The 24-team playoff bracket has numerous variations. Instead of breaking down every possible matchup, we will provide Ohio State's potential opponents for each round.
Round 1: Bye
Sweet 16: No. 13 Alabama or No. 20 Michigan
Elite Eight: No. 5 Oregon, No. 12 LSU, or No. 21 Boston College
Final Four: No. 1 USC, No. 8 Miami, No. 9 Auburn, No. 16 UCLA, No. 17 Florida, or No. 24 Georgia Tech
Championship: No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Penn State, No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Georgia, No. 10 Virginia Tech, No. 11 West Virginia, No. 14 TCU, No. 15 Texas Tech, No. 18 Wisconsin, No. 19 Louisville, No. 22 Florida State, or No. 23 Oklahoma
No. 4: 2018
Record: 12-1
Final regular season ranking: No. 6 CFP
Ohio State’s 49-20 loss at Purdue derailed the Buckeyes’ national title hopes during Urban Meyer’s final season in Columbus. The Buckeyes rebounded to beat Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game and Washington in the Rose Bowl, but the shocking defeat to the Boilermakers kept Dwayne Haskins and Ohio State out of the four-team CFP.
Four-Team CFP
With a final CFP ranking of No. 6, Ohio State narrowly missed the four-team field used during the 2018 season.
12-Team CFP
At the conclusion of the 2017 season, the Buckeyes had two players battling to be the team's starting quarterback in 2018: Dwayne Haskins and Joe Burrow. Haskins won the job, and Burrow headed to Baton Rouge.
Had there been a 12-team tournament in '18, Ohio State would have hosted Burrow and LSU in the first round. At this point, Burrow wasn't the Heisman version of himself, but he did have a full regular season under his belt. This would have been a fun matchup on and off the field.
After defeating the Tigers, a favorable matchup against Notre Dame would have been on the slate. Considering Ohio State hasn't lost to the team from South Bend since 1936, it's safe to assume Meyer's team would have taken care of business. Next up would be No. 2 Clemson, No. 7 Michigan, or No. 10 Florida.
Considering Clemson led the nation in scoring defense, was fourth in scoring offense, and won the national championship in 2018, Dabo Swinney's team likely would have dispatched either Michigan or Florida. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Tee Higgins, and Justyn Ross would have been a tall order to take on, but this Buckeye team might have been able to outscore them.
If the Buckeyes defeated LSU, Notre Dame, and Clemson, No. 1 Alabama would have likely been the opponent for the national championship. If an upset on the other side of the bracket happened, Ohio State could have faced: No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 5 Georgia, No. 8 UCF, No. 9 Washington, or No. 12 Penn State.
This would have been a challenging road to a title, but the 2024 Buckeyes proved it can be done.
24-Team CFP
Round 1: Bye
Sweet 16: No. 11 LSU, or No. 22 Northwestern
Elite Eight: No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 14 Kentucky, or No. 19 Texas A&M
Final Four: No. 2 Clemson, No. 7 Michigan, No. 10 Florida, No. 15 Texas, No. 18 Mississippi State, or No. 23 Missouri
Championship: No. 1 Alabama, No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 5 Georgia, No. 8 UCF, No. 9 Washington, No. 12 Penn State, No. 13 Washington State, No. 16 West Virginia, No. 17 Utah, No. 20 Syracuse, No. 21 Fresno State, or No. 24 Iowa State
No. 3: 2013
Record: 12-1
Final regular season ranking: No. 7 BCS
This was Urban Meyer's second season in Columbus, and the team entered the Big Ten championship game with a school-record 24-game winning streak. A win over Mark Dantonio and Michigan State was a guaranteed ticket to the Rose Bowl and the BCS National Championship Game.
The Spartans had other ideas as the No. 10 team in the nation jumped out to a 17-0 lead on the Buckeyes after 24 minutes of play. Braxton Miller spurred a furious comeback, and after his 6-yard touchdown run in the third quarter, Ohio State led 24-17. However, the Spartans responded with another run, and with just under 6:00 to play, the Buckeyes were down 27-24 and facing 4th-and-2 from the MSU 39-yard line.
Needing two yards, many believed the ball would be given to Carlos Hyde, who had a knack for picking up the tough yards in tough situations. Instead, Miller came up a yard short on a QB keeper. The winning streak, the Big Ten title, and national championship dreams were gone, all gone.
The upset prevented the Buckeyes from going to Pasadena and facing Jimbo Fisher, Jameis Winston, and Florida State in the BCS National Championship Game.
Four-Team CFP
With Ohio State's end-of-season CFP ranking being seventh, the Buckeyes did not make the four-team CFP that in was in place for the 2013 season.
12-Team CFP
As the seventh seed, Ohio State would have hosted No. 10 Oregon in Ohio Stadium. This would have been a tough match-up as Marcus Mariota was coming into his own at the end of his red-shirt sophomore season. The Ducks' offense also had a 1,000-yard rusher in Byron Marshall and a 1,000-yard receiver in Josh Huff.
Had the Bucks beat the Ducks, No. 2 Auburn would have been waiting in the quarterfinal. Gus Malzahn's squad was led by the legs of running back Tre Mason and quarterback Nick Marshall. Both had eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards and Marshall also kept defenses honest with his arm and his favorite target, Sammie Coates. Another tough game, but one the '13 team could have won.
The possible teams waiting in the semifinal would have been: No. 3 Alabama, No. 6 Baylor or No. 11 Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide's offense was powered by A.J. McCarron, T.J. Yelton, and Amari Cooper. Art Briles' Baylor team was pass-heavy and led the nation with over 52 points per game. Bryce Petty threw for 4,200 yards, with receiver Antwan Goodley accounting for 1,339 of those yards. This wasn't Bob Stoops' most talented Oklahoma team, but QB Blake Bell, RB Brennan Clay, and WR Jalen Saunders could hurt opposing defenses.
Facing Nick Saban and Alabama's defense would have been a challenge; the same for Baylor and its high-powered offense. Oklahoma would have been the best matchup for the 2013 Buckeyes, but Alabama would have likely been the team they faced in the semifinal.
Had the Buckeyes made it to the Rose Bowl, Florida State would have been the opponent if things went chalk. If there were upsets, the opponent could have been one of the following teams: No. 4 Michigan State, No. 5 Stanford, No. 8 Missouri, No. 9 South Carolina, or No. 12 Clemson.
24-Team CFP
Round 1: Bye
Sweet 16: No. 10 Oregon or No. 23 Northern Illinois
Elite Eight: No. 2 Auburn, No. 15 UCF, or No. 18 Louisville
Final Four: No. 3 Alabama, No. 6 Baylor, No. 11Oklahoma, No. 14 Arizona State, or No. 19 Wisconsin
Championship: No. 1 Florida State, No. 4 Michigan State, No. 5 Stanford, No. 8 Missouri, No. 9 South Carolina, No. 12 Clemson, No. 13 Oklahoma State, No. 16 LSU, No. 17 UCLA, No. 20 Fresno State, No. 21 Texas A&M, or No. 24 Duke
No. 2: 2015
Record: 11-1
Final regular season ranking: No. 7 CFP
One could make a case for the 2015 Buckeyes being ahead of the 1998 team, and you would have plenty of support. Urban Meyer's fourth team in Columbus was arguably his most talented. Many of the star players from the 2014 championship team were back.
Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas, Jalin Marshall, Curtis Samuel, and Braxton Miller were the playmakers J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones had at their disposal on the offensive side of the ball. As loaded as the offense was, the defense might have been better. Linebackers Raekwon McMillan, Darron Lee, and Joshua Perry played behind a defensive line that rotated Joey Bosa, Adolphus Washington, Tommy Schutt, Tyquan Lewis, Michael Hill, Joel Hale, Sam Hubbard, and Jalyn Holmes. In the secondary, Vonn Bell, Tyvis Powell, Eli Apple and Gareon Conley made the skies unfriendly for opponents.
The NFL certified the talent of the 2015 team as 19 players who were in Ohio State's two-deep were selected in the NFL draft between 2016 and 2018. Six of the 19 were first-round picks. With that much NFL talent, what went wrong? The ghost of Michigan State strikes again. This time, it was a combination of weather, a talented opponent and Elliott being under the weather that led to Ohio State losing 17-14 on a game-ending field goal.
Four-Team CFP
With Ohio State's end-of-season CFP ranking being seventh, the Buckeyes did not make the four-team CFP that in was in place for the 2015 season.
12-Team CFP
Ohio State would have hosted North Carolina in a game the Buckeyes should have won. Especially facing a "southern" team in a December night game in Ohio Stadium. Had Ohio State defeated the Tar Heels, the Buckeyes would have faced a stiff test against the team that won the national championship, Alabama. This would have been an intriguing match-up as Ohio State defeated the Crimson Tide in the quarterfinals of the inaugural CFP the year before.
If Ohio State was able to defeat Alabama, the Buckeyes would have played the winner of Michigan State and Stanford in the semifinal. A rematch against the Spartans or a game against the Cardinal? Yes, please.
We'll assume the other side of the bracket went chalk and Ohio State would have faced Clemson and Deshaun Watson in the championship game. Another tough match-up, but one this talented Buckeye team could have won.
24-Team CFP
Round 1: Bye
Sweet 16: No. 10 North Carolina or No. 23 Tennessee
Elite Eight: No. 2 Alabama, No. 15 Oregon, or No. 18 Houston
Final Four: No. 3 Michigan State, No. 6 Stanford, No. 11 TCU, No. 14 Michigan, or No. 19 Florida
Championship: No. 1 Clemson, No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 5 Iowa, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 9 Florida State, No. 12 Ole Miss, No. 13 Northwestern, No. 16 Oklahoma State, No. 17 Baylor, No. 20 LSU, No. 21 Navy, No. 24 Temple
No. 1: 1998
Regular Season Record: 10-1
Final Regular Season Ranking: No. 4 BCS
When the "what if" question is asked about Ohio State teams, the 1998 Buckeyes often pop into the minds of many fans. Especially those who are old enough to have watched this squad dismantle the competition on both sides of the ball. With Ohio State leading Michigan State 24-9 with 8:03 to play in the third quarter, and the Spartans punting the ball back to the Buckeyes from deep within their own territory, a rout of the overmatched team from East Lansing was underway.
When the punt freakishly bounced off of Nate Clements, the momentum of the game switched in favor of Michigan State, and the upset loss knocked Ohio State out of the BCS Championship game. Tennessee faced Florida State and the Volunteers won the first championship in the BCS era.
With only the top two teams getting a chance to play for the title, the late-season loss to Michigan State kept the Buckeyes from having a chance to play for the title, which could have been theirs. What would Ohio State's path looked like if the three CFP models were in place 28 years ago?
Four-Team CFP
Had the four-team CFP been in place in 1998, Ohio State would have played the first round against Tennessee and then faced the winner of Florida State and Kansas State in the title game. A scenario in which the Buckeyes could have come out as the national champions.
12-Team CFP
John Cooper's team would have had a first-round bye and played the winner of No. 5 UCLA and No. 12 Virginia in the quarterfinal. Had Ohio State won, the Buckeyes would have faced the winner of No. 1 Tennessee against No. 8 Florida or No. 9 Wisconsin in the semifinal.
No. 2 Florida State was the strongest team on the other side of the bracket and probably would have earned a spot in the title game. However, other potential opponents were No. 3 Kansas State, No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 7 Arizona, No. 10 Tulane and No. 11 Texas A&M.
24-Team CFP
Round 1: Bye
Sweet 16: No. 13 Arkansas or No. 20 Texas
Elite Eight: No. 5 UCLA, No. 12 Virginia, or No. 21 Oregon
Final Four: No. 1 Tennessee, No. 8 Florida, No. 9 Wisconsin, No. 16 Michigan, No. 17 Air Force, or No. 24 Miami
Championship: No. 2 Florida State, No. 3 Kansas State, No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 7 Arizona, No. 10 Tulane, No. 11 Nebraska, No. 14 Georgia Tech, No. 15 Syracuse, No. 18 Notre Dame, No. 19 Georgia, No. 22 Penn State, or No. 23 Missouri
Notes:
- In 1998, the BCS only provided rankings for the 15 seeds. The teams seeded 16-24 above are placed in order of the highest-ranked teams in the final regular-season AP poll that were not in the BCS rankings.
- The 2025, 2022, 2020, 2019, 2016, 2007, and 2006 teams are not part of this discussion. Each of those teams qualified for the playoffs but fell short of winning the national championship for various reasons. It could be argued that the expanded field of 24 teams could have helped the seven teams listed above achieve the ultimate goal. However, it could also be a fair point to say that the 2002, 2014, and 2024 teams might not have won the title if the playoffs had been a 24-team format. Those are topics for different articles, perhaps on another day.
- The 1999, 2000, 2001, 2011, and 2012 teams did not qualify because they were not ranked in the top 24 at the end of the regular season. The 2012 team was No. 3 in the AP Poll, but was banned from postseason play.
