Ohio State is considered the favorite to win the national championship entering the College Football Playoff, but that doesn’t mean a repeat will come easily.
To win its second straight national title, Ohio State will have to win three straight games at neutral sites against three of the best teams in college football. The Buckeyes’ national championship path could go through the one team that’s defeated OSU this year (Indiana), while it’s uncertain how Ohio State will match up with any of the other teams in the field, as none of the 12 teams the Buckeyes beat in the regular season made the CFP.
With the second 12-team CFP set to begin with first-round games on Friday and Saturday, we’re taking a look at all 11 teams in the field today, counting them down from eleven to one in order of who poses the biggest threat to Ohio State’s national championship quest. The rankings take into account how much confidence or concern I’d have in Ohio State winning a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against each team, as well as which teams the Buckeyes are most likely to encounter in their potential path to the national championship game.
THE 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET IS SET
— ESPN (@espn) December 7, 2025
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11. James Madison
Seed: 12
Potential matchup: National championship game
James Madison earned its playoff berth with an 11-1 regular season and a 31-14 victory over Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game, but it would be shocking if the 12th-seeded Dukes beat Oregon in the first round, let alone earn three wins to make the national championship game. They lost to Louisville, 28-14, in their only Power 4 game this season and are a 21.5-point underdog for their road game in Eugene this Saturday.
10. Tulane
Seed: 11
Potential matchup: Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl
Like James Madison, it would be surprising if Tulane wins one game in the CFP, let alone the two it would need to reach the semifinals. The Green Wave have beaten two Power 4 teams this year – Northwestern and ACC champion Duke – but they’ve already suffered a 45-10 loss this season against Ole Miss, their first-round opponent. The Buckeyes would have a massive talent advantage in a hypothetical matchup if Tulane made a Cinderella run to the Final Four.
9. Oklahoma
Seed: 8
Potential matchup: National championship game
The Sooners have one of the nation’s best defenses, but their offense is the weakest in the CFP, ranking just 93rd in the FBS with 5.37 yards per play. They’ve managed to win 10 games this year – including a game against their first-round opponent, Alabama – by limiting opponents to 13.9 points per game, but it’s hard to imagine them having much success moving the ball against Ohio State’s defense.
Oklahoma ranks just 108th nationally in rushing yards per attempt (3.69), and the Buckeyes have the nation’s best pass defense. Furthermore, it’s tough to envision the Sooners getting further than the quarterfinals, where they’d face No. 1 seed Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
8. Alabama
Seed: 9
Potential matchup: National championship game
Alabama sure didn’t look like a national championship contender in the SEC Championship Game, where it scored only once in a 28-7 drubbing vs. Georgia. In terms of pure talent, though, the Crimson Tide are arguably a top-three team in the field alongside Ohio State and Georgia.
Like Oklahoma, Alabama has struggled mightily to run the ball this season, ranking 120th in the FBS with only 3.56 yards per carry. That’ll likely prevent the Crimson Tide from reaching the national championship game, and would certainly pose a problem against Ohio State’s defense in a hypothetical matchup. But with a top-12 defense in the nation and a passing offense that’s dangerous with Ty Simpson throwing the ball to Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams, the Tide still have one of the higher ceilings in the playoff field and can’t be ruled out.
7. Ole Miss
Seed: 6
Potential matchup: Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl
With Lane Kiffin’s departure for LSU, Ole Miss became the biggest wild card in this year’s CFP. New head coach Pete Golding will be thrown straight into the fire for his first games as a head coach in the playoff, and how that will affect the Rebels is a huge unknown. But the Rebels appear highly motivated to make a statement that they’re just fine without Kiffin, they’ve already won two games this season against playoff teams (Tulane and Oklahoma) and have one of the playoff’s most dynamic quarterbacks in Trinidad Chambliss.
The Rebels would have to beat Georgia in the quarterfinals to reach a matchup with Ohio State, and they’ve already lost to the Bulldogs once this season. But their offense would be one of the toughest the Buckeyes have faced this season – Ole Miss ranks third in the nation with 498.1 yards of offense per game – and the Rebels would be playing with a lot of confidence and momentum by the time they played Ohio State if they managed to beat Georgia in a rematch.
6. Texas A&M
Seed: 7
Potential matchup: Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl
Whether Texas A&M is better than Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma is debatable – the Aggies didn’t play any of them, nor Georgia, during the regular season – but they are far more likely to play Ohio State than any of the teams ranked below them. Texas A&M will have home-field advantage as it hosts Miami in its first-round game on Saturday, and it would have another de facto home game against Ohio State at AT&T Stadium, just a three-hour drive north of College Station.
Texas A&M’s pass rush would present a big challenge to Ohio State’s offensive line, as the Aggies lead the nation with 41 sacks and have a consensus All-American defensive end in Cashius Howell. Marcel Reed has been inconsistent as a passer, so it’s easy to see Ohio State’s top-ranked defense giving him trouble, but his dual-threat ability along with one of the nation’s top receiving tandems, KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, would make the Aggies a real test for the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball, especially in their home state.
Texas A&M’s pass-rush, led by Cashius Howell, makes the Aggies a dangerous potential quarterfinal opponent at the Cotton Bowl. (Photo: Troy Taormina – Imagn Images)
5. Miami
Seed: 10
Potential matchup: Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl
Remember the discourse from the first half of the season about whether Miami should be ranked ahead of Ohio State as the No. 1 team in college football? That chatter faded quickly after the Hurricanes suffered midseason losses to Louisville and SMU, but they’re still plenty dangerous as a potential quarterfinal opponent for the Buckeyes on New Year’s Eve.
Offensively, Miami has one of the nation’s most efficient passers in Carson Beck (only Julian Sayin has completed a higher percentage of his passing attempts this season), a freshman phenom wide receiver in Malachi Toney and a strong offensive line. Defensively, the Hurricanes would also pose a big test to Ohio State’s offensive line with a projected top-10 overall pick in defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. and a run defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally with only 2.9 yards allowed per attempt. Among the teams seeded in the lower half of the bracket, they might be the most capable of making a deep run – if they play at their best and if they can upset the Buckeyes.
4. Oregon
Seed: 5
Potential matchup: National championship game
We’ve now reached the serious championship contender portion of the countdown, which is why Oregon makes the top four even though it has to win three games before a hypothetical national championship rematch of last season’s Rose Bowl.
The Ducks are one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking in the top nine nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. With Dante Moore at quarterback and a rushing offense that ranks fifth nationally with 5.8 yards per carry, their offense is capable of putting up big numbers on anyone, while their defense is more capable than most of giving Sayin problems with just 5.36 yards allowed per passing attempt this season (fourth in the FBS).
They’ll have to beat two of the three teams ranked above them, including an Indiana team that already beat them on their home field, to reach the national championship game. But Ohio State’s recent history against Oregon, including a loss in Eugene last season, is reason enough for the Buckeyes to keep an eye on the Ducks as a team that could present a major challenge as a potential CFP title game opponent.
3. Texas Tech
Seed: 4
Potential matchup: National championship game
Texas Tech hasn’t gotten as much national attention this season as the top teams in the Big Ten and SEC, but overlooking the Red Raiders would be a big mistake for any opponent, including Ohio State, if Texas Tech makes a run to the national championship game.
The Red Raiders rank as one of college football’s top three defensive teams this season alongside Ohio State and Indiana, led by the national defensive player of the year in linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and the nation’s best edge rusher in David Bailey. They’ve forced more turnovers (31) than any other team in college football this season, and they lead the nation with only 68.5 rushing yards allowed per game, which could make them a problematic matchup for an Ohio State offense that’s struggled to run the ball consistently.
Texas Tech also ranks in the top five nationally in both scoring and total offense, making it a championship-caliber team on both sides of the ball. Outside of an October loss to Arizona State, the Red Raiders have been the most dominant team in the country, winning every other game they’ve played this season by at least 22 points; their average margin of victory (31.6) is the nation’s best entering the CFP.
2. Georgia
Seed: 3
Potential matchup: Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl
If chalk prevails in the first two rounds of the CFP, Ohio State would face Georgia in a rematch of the 2022 CFP semifinal at the Peach Bowl. And a matchup between the Buckeyes and Bulldogs would project to be just as much of a heavyweight battle as it was then.
While Ohio State has taken the mantle Georgia held at the start of the decade as the best defensive team in the country, this year’s Georgia defense has looked more and more like some of Kirby Smart’s best defenses as the year has progressed, holding each of its last four opponents – including Alabama and Texas – to 10 points or fewer. Like Ohio State, Georgia is loaded with future NFL players all over its defense, and the Bulldogs are plenty capable of pulling the Buckeyes into a defensive battle like Indiana did in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Ohio State’s defense would have the edge on paper over Georgia’s offense, which ranks just 70th nationally in yards per play (5.71), but the Bulldogs are still a team that scored 35 against Texas (21 more than Ohio State), 43 against Ole Miss and 44 against Tennessee. They’re battle-tested with five wins over ranked opponents and seem to be peaking at the right time. And Kirby Smart has a track record of getting his teams to play their best in the CFP, having won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022.
Georgia looks like a top national championship contender after blowing out Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. (Photo: Brett Davis – Imagn Images)
1. Indiana
Seed: 1
Potential matchup: National championship game
We’re not going to overthink the obvious here: The team that presents the biggest hurdle to Ohio State in its path to a second straight national championship is the one team that’s already beaten Ohio State this year, which is also the No. 1 seed in the CFP and the only FBS team that hasn’t lost a game this season.
While we can speculate about how Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Miami, Texas A&M or anyone else would match up with Ohio State, Indiana is the one team that’s already proven it matches up favorably with the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers’ defense, in particular, gave the Buckeyes major problems, limiting Ohio State to a season-low 10 points and giving the Buckeyes’ offensive line fits while making Sayin look mortal.
That’s not to say that Indiana would beat Ohio State again. Ryan Day and Ohio State’s players feel as though they should have beaten Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, and the Hoosiers wouldn’t have the home-field advantage in Miami (it is Fernando Mendoza’s hometown, but it’s also Jeremiah Smith’s) that they did in Indianapolis. Ohio State’s dominant win over Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl after a regular-season loss to the Ducks proved it’s hard to beat the Buckeyes twice. And if the Buckeyes overlooked the Hoosiers at all the first time around, they’ll surely know they can’t do that again if they rematch with Curt Cignetti’s squad in the national championship game.
But there might not be any team that’s more equipped to exploit the Buckeyes’ weaknesses than Indiana, even if there are more talented teams in the field. And after already preventing the Buckeyes from winning one championship, Indiana should be viewed as the biggest threat to Ohio State’s national championship hopes, even if both teams have to win quarterfinal and semifinal games first before they’d meet again.
