Hanging around, hanging around.
That's the movie quote that moves into mind as it pertains to Ohio State's NCAA Tournament chances. The Buckeyes are doing just enough to stay on the bubble, barely on the correct side of it. Mostly, they've won the games they're supposed to win and lost the games they're supposed to lose.
That's what happened this past week. Ohio State hung close at No. 3 Michigan for a while before being dismantled down the stretch, then returned home and took an 18-point lead against Penn State, a team winless in Big Ten play, watched that lead evaporate, but closed strong for a six-point home win.
The Buckeyes are 14-6 on the season as a result. But a critical pair of road games is on the docket for Saturday and Feb. 5.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Ohio State's NCAA Tournament standing has improved marginally since the last edition of Buckeyetology, now more firmly entrenched as getting a bye through the First Four by those who project the field.
| Overall Record | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-2 |
| Road | 3-3 |
| NET Ranking | 37th |
| Q1 Record | 1-5 |
| Q2 Record | 3-1 |
| Strength of Schedule | 33rd |
Of the 96 bracket predictions aggregated by The Bracket Matrix, the Buckeyes make the field in 87 of them. ESPN's Joe Lunardi places them in his last four byes in his famed Bracketology, and CBS Sports places even more respect on Ohio State by having it as a No. 10 seed. FOX's Mike Decourcy has OSU a rung lower, placing them in his last four teams in alongside George Mason, Missouri and NC State.
Ohio State's résumé received a slight boost from last week in spite of its loss to Michigan. Though the Buckeyes dropped one spot in the NET rankings, their road win over Northwestern jumped from a Quad 2 to a Quad 1 win as the Wildcats cracked the top 75 in NET. Their strength of schedule leaped from 38th to 33rd, thanks to their tilt against the Wolverines.
What's in front of Ohio State on Saturday is not only an opportunity for a Quad 1 win, but a win over a team it's in direct competition with for bubble positioning in Wisconsin. The Badgers bring a NET ranking of 41 alongside what's sure to be a raucous crowd in the Kohl Center. Both Wisconsin and Ohio State are in Lunardi's last four byes. Given that it's on the road, it would become the Buckeyes' best win so far this season from a tournament résumé perspective.
Then follows another road trip to Maryland that Ohio State can't afford to lose, especially if it can't get the job done in Madison. It's a Quad 3 game, because the Terrapins are ranked 159th in the NET with an 8-12 overall record and 1-8 mark in Big Ten play. That one win came over Penn State, which, as mentioned above, still hasn't won a conference game.
Why is that pair of games so important? Outside the direct résumé implications, Ohio State's brutal season-closing stretch doesn't leave a ton of wiggle room. The Buckeyes return home to face Michigan again after the Maryland game, the first of four opponents ranked in the top 20 of the AP men's basketball poll that OSU faces in its final nine contests.
| Team | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | 9–1 | 20–1 |
| Michigan | 9–1 | 18–1 |
| Michigan State | 9–1 | 19–2 |
| Illinois | 8–1 | 17–3 |
| Purdue | 8–2 | 18–3 |
| Wisconsin | 6–3 | 14–6 |
| UCLA | 6–3 | 14–6 |
| Ohio State | 6–4 | 14–6 |
| Iowa | 4–4 | 14–5 |
| Indiana | 4–6 | 13–8 |
| USC | 4–5 | 15–5 |
| Indiana | 4–6 | 13–8 |
| Minnesota | 3–6 | 10–10 |
| Washington | 3–6 | 11–9 |
| Rutgers | 2–8 | 9–12 |
| Oregon | 1–8 | 8–12 |
| Northwestern | 1–8 | 9–11 |
| Maryland | 1–8 | 8–12 |
| Penn State | 0–8 | 9–10 |
Big Ten Outlook
Ohio State is clinging to a double-bye position for the Big Ten Tournament, leading Iowa by one game for the eighth and final double-bye spot. If the regular season ended today, the Hawkeyes would be the Buckeyes' most likely third-round opponent as the No. 9 seed in the tourney, after a likely win over either the No. 16 or 17 seed in the second round. Iowa beat Ohio State in the 2025 Big Ten Tournament to crush OSU's NCAA Tournament hopes.
A triple-bye, given to the top four teams in the Big Ten regular season standings, is highly unlikely for Ohio State, which sits 3.5 games back of fourth-place Illinois. But even more unlikely is that the Buckeyes finish in the bottom four of the conference and don't receive a bye at all. Oregon, Northwestern and Maryland are tied for 15th place at 1-8, 4.5 games behind OSU.
Outside Ohio State's perspective, Tuesday provided great intrigue in the race for the Big Ten regular-season championship. No. 3 Michigan trailed most of its game against undefeated No. 5 Nebraska, but pulled ahead in the final minutes for a nail-biting 75-72 victory. No. 7 Michigan State also required a late-game comeback at bottom-feeding Rutgers before securing victory in overtime. That placed the Wolverines, Spartans and Cornhuskers in a three-way tie for first place in the conference, and No. 9 Illinois can make it a four-way tie with a home win over Washington on Thursday.
Returning to the Buckeyes, handling business in a tough-but-winnable game at Wisconsin and a much more winnable game at Maryland will not only grant some breathing room on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, but also a double-bye in the Big Ten tourney. Then, if they pull a shocker against Michigan at home in 12 days, they'll be doing much more than hanging around.
